Welfare Policy

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Welfare Policy
POLS 21 The American Political System
Welfare is hated by those who administer it,
mistrusted by those who pay for it and held in
contempt by those who receive it. Peter C.
Goldmark, Jr.
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SAM entering office On Monday, the OMB is
putting out a new formula for calculating the
poverty level. TOBY I saw that. Doesn't it
need Presidential approval before it goes to
Congress? SAM Yeah. TOBY What's the
problem? SAM It's a good news, bad news thing.
Under the new formula, poverty is up two percent.
It was anyone under seventeen thousand, five
hundred and twenty-four before, now it's twenty
thousand. TOBY What does that shake out to?
SAM Four million new poor people. TOBY Four
million?!?
The West Wing
The Indians in the Lobby Season 3, Episode 7
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SAM Yeah. Obviously, that's the bad news.
TOBY Yeah... SAM The good news is more
people will be eligible for benefits. TOBY And
taxpayers are nuts about that. Let's get back to
the bad news. Four million people became poor on
the President's watch? SAM They didn't become
poor. They were poor already. And now we're
calling them poor. TOBY What was wrong with
the old formula? SAM I don't know. TOBY
Find out.
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The numbers and their importance
How the government measures poverty
Identify problems with the poverty measure
Discuss a valid and reliable indicator of poverty
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According to the federal government, how many
Americans are poor?
In 2013, 45.8 million Americans lived in
povertythats 14.6 of the U.S. population.
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The Importance of the Poverty Rate
NUMBER OF PEOPLE LIVING IN POVERTY INCREASES IN
U.S. (The New York Times). U.S. SAYS POVERTY
RATE HAS RISEN. SURVEY FINDS A DROP IN HOUSEHOLD
INCOME, THE FIRST IN A DECADE (The Boston
Globe).RECESSION SWELLED BY 9/11 PLUNGES MANY
INTO POVERTY (Buffalo News).POVERTY, BY THE
NUMBERS THE RISING NUMBER OF LOW-INCOME
AMERICANS CALLS INTO QUESTION KEY GOVERNMENT
INITIATIVES (Albany Times Union).
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Few economic indicators are more closely watched
or more important for policy than the official
poverty rate. The poverty rate is often cited by
policymakers, researchers, and advocates who are
evaluating social programs that account for more
than half a trillion dollars in government
spending. Bruce D. Meyer and James X.
Sullivan
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Mollie Orshansky
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Cost of the economy food plan for one year
1,033
x
3
-----------

3100
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Poverty Thresholds, 2013
The amount of 23,624 represents the original
threshold of 3,100, adjusted for inflation.
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The Multiplier
Rent Transportation Child care Clothing Etc.
The 2013 threshold for a family consisting of two
adults and two children was 23,634, or roughly
2,000 per month. One-third would be spent on
food (e.g., about 170 per week), which leaves
about 1,350 per month for rent, transportation,
child care, clothing, etc.
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Problems with the Poverty Measure

• The needs of all poor are not the same.
• The cost of living varies across the country.

• The current measure is not based on actual
  expenditure data.

• Income is measured before taxes.
• The measure considers only income.

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Americas worst statistical indicator
a dreadful numerical embarrassment.
A Poverty Line That's Out of Date and Out of
Favor
The countrys poverty measure masks the true
economic conditions that American workers and
families face.
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According to the federal government, how many
Americans are poor?
According to the Supplemental Poverty Measure in
2013, 45.3 million Americans lived in
povertythats 15.5 of the U.S. population.
SAM Three million new poor people.
TOBY Three million?!?
TOBY And taxpayers are nuts about that. Let's
get back to the bad news. Three million people
became poor on the President's watch? SAM They
didn't become poor. They were poor already. And
now we're calling them poor.
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Is there a true poverty rate?

• Liberals complain that the threshold are too low
• Conservatives say the thresholds are too high

What should it measure? Is poverty an absolute
or a relative condition?
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Welfare and Public Opinion
Suppose the budgets of your state and local
governments have to be curtailed, which of these
parts would you limit most severely? Aid to the
needy 8 Public welfare programs
39 Food programs for low income
families 16 Food stamps 35

• Why do Americans hate welfare?
• Welfare has become a code word for race, tapping
  into our latent prejudices.
• Welfare is thought to be a wasteful program that
  encourages laziness and fraud (e.g., welfare
  queen). The term itself carries a powerfully
  negative connotation.

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Racial Composition of the Poor
Surveys show that most Americans overestimate the
proportion of the poor who are black.
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Source U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current
Population Reports.
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The actual proportion is 23
Source Martin Gilens, "Race and Poverty in
America Public Misperceptions and the American
News Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 60 (1996)
515-541.
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The Racial Composition of Poverty Compared
Source Martin Gilens, "Race and Poverty in
America Public Misperceptions and the American
News Media," Public Opinion Quarterly, 60 (1996)
515-541.
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The New York Times
Tougher Welfare Limits Bring Surprising
Results December 30, 1997
Tatashia Holley, 25, with her daughters Kierre,
2, at right, 1-year-old Tierre in her arms, and
her son, Pierre, 5, under a blanket, in the room
they share at Ms. Holley's aunt's home in
Pensacola, Fla. Ms. Holley dropped from the
welfare rolls in 1996.
Since losing her welfare benefits, Mary Miller
has yet to find a job although she went to school
and became a certified nurse's aide in Chicago.
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AFDC A Flawed System?

• The system did not do enough to encourage work
• By rewarding unwed mothers and pregnant teens,
  the welfare system was responsible for the
  breakdown of the family
• The system fostered dependency

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https//www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000004377970/w
elfare-and-the-politics-of-poverty.html
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Reforming Welfare
Its time to honor and reward people who work
hard and play by the rules. That means ending
welfare as we know it not by punishing the poor
or preaching to them, but by empowering Americans
to take care of their children and improve their
lives. No one who works full-time and has
children at home should be poor anymore. No one
who can work should be able to stay on welfare
forever. President Bill Clinton
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Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity
Reconciliation Act (PRWORA)

• Creates welfare-to-work incentives with
  time-limited cash assistance
• Restricts benefits
• Strengthens families by discouraging
  out-of-wedlock births
• Decentralizes control
• Replaces AFDC with TANF

Has welfare reform been successful?
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Has Welfare Reform Been Successful?
We might judge the success or failure of the new
law in either of two ways By its effect on
the poverty rate (e.g., the number of people who
are classified as poor) OR By its effect
on the number of welfare caseloads (e.g., the
number of people receiving benefits)
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Percentage of the U.S. Population on Welfare
PRWORA went into effect in 1996
Are declining welfare caseloads a valid measure
of policy success? Why or why not?