Disclaimer

1
Disclaimer

• The opinions expressed are those of the speaker
  and do not reflect opinions of any other person
  or agency

2
WWII Total WarTotal Propaganda
3
East Asia Co-Prosperity SphereAsians Initially
Welcomed Japanese as Liberators

• Why?
• Tajfel et al. (1971
• Sherif (1961)

4
One Example Doolittle Raid
Psych. Effects of Air War
Variable Psych. Effects of Prolonged Aerial
Bombing
5
Nazis Über Propaganda
6
Nissbett Wilson (1977)
Psychological Explanations for Rise of Hitler?...

• Halo Effect?

(Psych. Explanations for Rise Nazism, contin.)
Availability Bias/Cascade
7
Youth PropagandaBandura(1961)

• Modeling Aggression

8
Obedience The Holocaust

• How could this happen?
• Milgram (1963) Obedience To Authority

9
Conformity Without Explicit OrdersAutokinetic
Study (Sherif, 1935)
Conformity Asch (1952)
Social Influence
10
Return to Nazis WWII

• Summary of Psych. Reasons for Rise of Nazism
• Social Crisis / Uncertainty
• Hitler Halo Effect
• Obedience to Authority
• Social Conformity
• Modeled Aggression
• Power Blunts Empathy / Compassion
• And of course, social identity and out-group bias

11
U.S. Pacific Theater, Initial Morale
Leaving Nazi Psych

• Initial U.S. deception, continued losses
• Japanese militarism
• Both Sides Dehuminization of Out-group

12
Was Propaganda!
The Most Famous War Picture Ever
13
WW2 Outcomes

• Most Important Long-Term Developments
• Shift of Power Struggle to U.S. vs. USSR
• Massive influx of Jewish refugees into Palestine

14
The Cold War (1946-1991)The World Psych War
I(Cold part now, hot spots like Korea
Vietnam later)

• Started Early Hiroshima as Psych. Warfare
  against Soviets?
• Back into the shadows (KGB vs. CIA)
• Iron Curtain
• Further into the strategic domain
• Low Intensity Conflicts
• Space Race
• The Great Communicator Star Wars

15
Hot Parts of Cold War Part 1 Korea (1950-53)

• Retreat and Stalemate
• Wash Brain
• MK Ultra

16
Back To Hot Parts of Cold War Part 2 Vietnam

• U.S. Involved 1965-1975
• The Uncensored War
• Containment Effect on Later Strategy?

17
The Good Guys?

• Psychology
• Cognitive Dissonance
• Festinger Carlsmith (1959)
• My Lai (event 68, story 69)

18
Vietnam Tet Offensive (1968)

• U.S. won ground war
• Viet Cong won media war
• U.S. lost resolve

19
Yom Kippur War Egyptian Surprise (1973)

• Psychology Confirmation Bias Again!

20
Fast Forward to Israel, 2009

• No approach has worked completely, not Hard Line,
  Soft Line, or Status Quo (do nothing)

• NO EASY SOLUTION FOR ISRAEL
• Question for U.S. Realpolitik
• What is our strategic/tactical interest in
  Israel?

21
Leaving Modern Israel

• Returning you to the 1970s now

22
Afghanistan (1978-1988)

• Holy War
• All-out Soviet reaction

• U.S. Taliban both claimed the victory
• Psychology Internal Attribution Tendency?
• The biggest factors were situational

23
Desert Storm (1990-91)

• Famously successful Psyops

Public Impression

• Intnl. Coalition Muslim Countries Behind Us
• Technological dominance
• Its over already?

24
Somalia (1993)

• U.S. attack killing 73 clan elders
• Battle of Mogadishu

• Led to change in U.S. Policy

25
Lect 2Focus on Terrorism

• Starting from beginning

26
Proto-Terrorism

• Zealots Sicarri 1st century BC

• Muslim Assassins (1090 1256)

27
Breakup of Empire / Decolonization

• Terrorists seek to provoke regime change or
  popular revolt.

28
Breakup of Empire

• Russian Rise of Terrorism (1904-07)

Terrorism Triggers World War I
29
Algeria 1954 - 1961

• Modern Terrorism
• All-out Counter-Terrorism

30
Iran Hostage Crisis (1979-81)

• U.S. seen as weak
• Rise of Theocratic anti-U.S. groups
• Fall of Jimmy Carter, Rise of Ronald Reagan

31
Modern trends in terrorism

• Fewer attacks
• More violent attacks (increasing lethality)

32
Global Struggle for moral high ground
21st Century War (2001)

• Twin Towers center of world trade
• Pentagon symbol of military power

33
Psych. Problems w/ this New WarFirst, What Do
We Call It?

• Who are we fighting?
• When are we done?

• When are we in danger?
• How much danger? (human factors)
• Definitions of Terrorism Vary

34
Psychological Media Impacts

• Media exposure to violence influences
• Opinion
• Attitude
• Emotional State

MEDIA BIAS?

• False Consensus Bias (Projection Bias)
• Ross, Green, House (1977)

35
Afghanistan War (2001-present)
The Partnership of Nations is Here to Help You
Demonizing the Taliban bin Laden
36
Iraq 2nd Gulf War (2003-present)
Psychological See-Saw
37
Where are the WMD? (Oct 2003)

• Sheehan, 2006
• Neutralizing an enemy leader helps

Kidnappings start 2004 (These hurt support)
38
Does Terrorism Work?

• E.g., Riessen, 2006

39
Arent We the The Good Guys? Haditha, Aug. 05
Abu Ghraib, April 04
Stanford Prison StudyZimbardo (1971)