Learning Agents Laboratory

1
CS 782 Machine Learning
11 Learning and problem solving agents
Prof. Gheorghe Tecuci
Learning Agents Laboratory Computer Science
Department George Mason University
2
Overview
Learning and problem solving agents Disciple
An agent for center of gravity analysis
Modeling of problem solving through task reduction
Knowledge base object ontology rules
Rule-based problem solving
Control of the problem solving process
Control of modeling, learning and problem solving
Multistrategy rule learning
Multistrategy rule refinement
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What are intelligent agents

• An intelligent agent is a system that
• perceives its environment (which may be the
  physical world, a user via a graphical user
  interface, a collection of other agents, the
  Internet, or other complex environment)
• reasons to interpret perceptions, draw
  inferences, solve problems, and determine
  actions and
• acts upon that environment to realize a set of
  goals or tasks for which it was designed.

input/
sensors
IntelligentAgent
output/
user/ environment
effectors
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The architecture of an intelligent agent
Implements a general problem solving method that
uses the knowledge from the knowledge base to
interpret the input and provide an appropriate
output.
Intelligent Agent
Implements learning methods for extending and
refining the knowledge in the knowledge base.
Problem Solving Engine
Input/
Sensors
Learning Engine
User/ Environment
Output/
Ontology Rules/Cases/
Knowledge Base
Effectors
Data structures that represent the objects from
the application domain, general laws governing
them, actions that can be performed with them,
etc.
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How are agents built and why it is hard
Intelligent Agent
Knowledge
Domain
Inference Engine
Engineer
Expert
Dialog
Programming
Knowledge Base
Results
The knowledge engineer attempts to understand how
the subject matter expert reasons and solves
problems and then encodes the acquired expertise
into the agent's knowledge base. This modeling
and representation of experts knowledge is long,
painful and inefficient (known as the knowledge
acquisition bottleneck).
6
We are using the term agent as a metaphor for a
modern Artificial Intelligence system. Let us
consider the problem of developing an agent that
exhibits the problem solving expertise of a
subject matter expert. This diagram illustrates
the current practice of building such an agent.
It involves a subject matter expert and a
knowledge engineer. The knowledge engineer
attempts to understand how the subject matter
expert reasons and solves problems and then
encodes the acquired expertise into the agent's
knowledge base. This modeling and representation
of experts knowledge is long, painful and
inefficient, being well-known as the knowledge
acquisition bottleneck of agent development.
Moreover, any future adaptation and development
of the agent requires an even greater effort from
the part of the subject matter expert and the
knowledge engineer. One of the main causes of
this situation is that the knowledge engineer,
who is not an expert in the application domain,
needs to play a critical role in every step of
the creation and maintenance of agents
knowledge. A solution to this problem is to
develop more capable intelligent agents that can
be instructed directly by the subject matter
experts.
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Another approach to agent building
Intelligent Agent
Knowledge
Domain
Inference Engine
Engineer
Expert
Dialog
Programming
Knowledge Base
Results
Instructable Agent
Domain
Inference Engine
Expert
Dialog
Learning Engine
Knowledge Base
Agent training directly by the subject matter
expert.
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Disciple approach to agent building
LALAB has developed a theory, a methodology, and
a family of tools for the rapid building of
knowledge bases and agents by subject matter
experts, with limited assistance from knowledge
engineers, to overcome the knowledge acquisition
bottleneck.
Disciple approach Develop learning and problem
solving agents that can be taught by subject
matter experts to become knowledge-based
assistants.
The expert teaches the agent to perform various
tasks in a way that resembles how the expert
would teach a person.
The agent learns from the expert, building,
verifying and improving its knowledge base.
Rapid agent development and maintenance
Mixed-initiative problem solving Teaching and
learning Multistrategy learning
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LALAB has developed a theory, a methodology, and
a family of tools for the rapid building of
knowledge bases and agents by subject matter
experts, with limited assistance from knowledge
engineers, to overcome the knowledge acquisition
bottleneck. The main idea of this approach,
called Disciple, consists in developing an
instructable (learning) agent that can be taught
directly by a subject matter expert to become a
knowledge-based assistant. The expert will teach
the agent how to perform problem solving tasks in
a way that is similar to how the expert would
teach a person. That is, the expert will teach
the agent by providing it examples on how to
solve specific problems, helping it to understand
the solutions, and supervising and correcting the
problem solving behavior of the agent. The agent
will learn from the expert by generalizing the
examples and building its knowledge base. In
essence, the goal is to create a synergism
between the expert that has the knowledge to be
formalized and the agent that knows how to
formalize it. This is based on methods for
mixed-initiative problem solving, integrated
teaching and learning, and multistrategy
learning. The end result is an approach for rapid
agent development and maintenance. The Disciple
approach has been successful applied to several
military domains (workaround planning, course of
action critiquing, and center of gravity
analysis) proving to be superior to competing
agent development approaches, as discussed in the
following viewgraphs.
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Disciples vision on the future of software
development
Mainframe Computers
Software systems developed and used by computer
experts
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First let us introduce two long-term research
visions for Disciple that guide our work one
related to the future of software development,
and the other related to education. We think that
the Disciple approach contributes directly to a
new age in the software systems development
process, as illustrated in this viewgraph. In the
mainframe computers age, the software systems
were both built and used by computer science
experts. In the current age of personal
computers, these systems are still being built by
computer science experts, but many of them (such
as text processors, email programs, or Internet
browsers) are now used by persons that have no
formal computer education. Continuing this trend,
we think that the next age will be that of the
personal agents, where typical computer users
will be able to both develop and use special
types of software agents. The Disciple approach
attempts to change the way intelligent agents are
built, from being programmed by a knowledge
engineer to being taught by a user who does not
have prior knowledge engineering or computer
science experience. This approach would allow a
typical computer user, who is not a trained
knowledge engineer, to build by himself an
intelligent assistant as easily as he now uses a
word processor to write a paper. It is enough to
consider how current personal computers have
changed our work and life, to imagine how much
more the learning agents will impact us.
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Vision on the use of Disciple in Education
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The Disciple approach is particularly relevant to
education, this viewgraph illustrating our long
term research vision in this area. As shown in
the left-hand side part, a teacher teaches a
Disciple agent through examples and explanations,
in a way that is similar to how the teacher would
teach a student. After that, the Disciple agent
can be used as a personal tutor, teaching the
students in a way that is similar to how it was
taught by the teacher.
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DARPAs HPKB program evaluation
Disciple-WA (1997-1998) Estimates the best
plan of working around damage to a transportation
infrastructure, such as a damaged bridge or road.
Disciple-WA demonstrated that a knowledge
engineer can use Disciple to rapidly build and
update a knowledge base capturing knowledge from
military engineering manuals and a set of sample
solutions provided by a subject matter expert.
72 increase of KB size in 17 days
Evolution of KB coverage and performance from the
pre-repair phase to the post-repair phase.
Disciple-WA features

• High knowledge acquisition rate
• High problem solving performance (including
  unanticipated solutions).
• Demonstrated at EFX98 as part of an integrated
  application led by Alphatech.

Development of Disciples KB during evaluation.
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An earlier version of the Disciple approach has
been developed as part of the DARPAs High
Performance Knowledge Bases Program and has been
evaluated in the context of the workaround
challenge problem. This problem consists of the
rapid development and use of a planning agent
that can estimate enemys best way of working
around damage to a transportation infrastructure,
such as a damaged bridge or road. The knowledge
base of the Disciple-WA agent was developed by a
knowledge engineer who has captured knowledge
from military engineering manuals and from sample
solutions provided by a subject matter expert.
The graph in the left hand side shows the high
rate of knowledge acquisition achieved by the
George Mason University (GMU) team during the
DARPA evaluation. The graph in the right hand
side, elaborated by Alphatech, the evaluator for
this challenge problem, shows that the GMU team
has achieved the highest problem solving
performance and the second highest coverage of
the problem space. Disciple-WA surprised the
evaluators by finding several workaround plans
that were not anticipated. Disciple-WA was the
system selected by DARPA to be integrated into a
larger system for target selection, which was
demonstrated by Alphatech at EFX98, the Air
Forces show case of the most promising new
technologies.
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DARPAs HPKB program evaluation
Disciple-COA (1998-1999) Identifies strengths
and weaknesses in a Course of Action, based on
the principles of war and the tenets of army
operations.
Disciple-COA demonstrated the generality of its
learning methods that used an object ontology
created by another group (TFS/Cycorp).
100
It also demonstrated that a knowledge engineer
and a subject matter expert can jointly teach
Disciple.
46 increase of KB size in 8 days
Evolution of KB coverage and performance from the
pre-repair phase to the post-repair phase for
the final 3 evaluation items.
Disciple-COA features

• High knowledge acquisition rate
• Better performance than the other evaluated
  systems
• Better performance than the evaluating experts
  (many unanticipated solutions).

Development of Disciples KB during evaluation.
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The second challenge problem in the DARPAs HPKB
program was to rapidly develop a course of action
critiquer. The GMU team has developed an agent
that identifies strengths and weaknesses in a
course of action, based on the principles of war
and the tenets of Army operations, by answering
questions such as To what extend does this
course of action conform to the principle of
surprise? The knowledge base of the Disciple-COA
agent was developed by a knowledge engineer and a
subject matter expert who have jointly taught
Disciple by critiquing specific courses of
action. The graphs from the right hand side
shows the results of the evaluations performed by
Alphatech. The GMU team has achieved both the
highest performance and the highest coverage of
the problem space. A remarkable feature is that
many of the scores of the GMU team were above
100 because Disciple-COA identified many
strengths and weaknesses that were missed by the
evaluating experts.
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Overview
Learning and problem solving agents Disciple
An agent for center of gravity analysis
Modeling of problem solving through task reduction
Knowledge base object ontology rules
Rule-based problem solving
Control of the problem solving process
Control of modeling, learning and problem solving
Multistrategy rule learning
Multistrategy rule refinement
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Center of gravity challenge problem
Develop an intelligent agent that is able to
identify and test strategic Center of Gravity
candidates for a war scenario.
The center of gravity of an entity (state,
alliance, coalition, or group) is the foundation
of capability, the hub of all power and movement,
upon which everything depends, the point against
which all the energies should be directed. Carl
Von Clausewitz, On War, 1832. If a combatant
eliminates or influences the enemys strategic
center of gravity, then the enemy will lose
control of its power and resources and will
eventually fall to defeat. If the combatant fails
to adequately protect his own strategic center of
gravity, he invites disaster. Giles and Galvin,
1996
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Approach to center of gravity analysis
Centers of Gravity Primary sources of moral or
physical strength, power or resistance.
Critical Capabilities Primary abilities which
merit a Center of Gravity to be identified as
such in the context of a given scenario,
situation or mission.
Critical Requirements Essential conditions,
resources and means for a Critical capability to
be fully operative.
Critical Vulnerabilities Critical Requirements
or components thereof which are deficient, or
vulnerable to neutralization, interdiction or
attack (moral/physical harm) in a manner
achieving decisive results the smaller the
resources and effort applied and the smaller the
risk and cost, the better.
Joe Strange, Centers of Gravity Critical
Vulnerabilities, 1996.
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First computational approach to COG analysis

• Approach to center of gravity analysis based on
  the concepts ofcritical capabilities, critical
  requirements and critical vulnerabilities, which
  have been recently adopted into the joint
  military doctrine.
• Application to current war scenarios (e.g. War on
  terror 2003, Iraq 2003) with state and non-state
  actors (e.g. Al Qaeda).

Identification of COG candidates
Testing of COG candidates
Identify potential primary sources of moral or
physical strength, power and resistance from
Test each identified COG candidate to determine
whether it has all the necessary critical
capabilities
Which are the critical capabilities? Are the
critical requirements of these capabilities
satisfied? If not, eliminate the candidate. If
yes, do these capabilities have any vulnerability?
Government Military People Economy Alliances Etc.
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Working with subject matter experts from the US
Army War College, and building on previous work
done there (e.g. Giles, P.K., and Galvin, T.P.
1996. Center of Gravity Determination, Analysis
and Application. CSL, U.S. Army War College, PA
Carlisle Barracks) and at the US Marine Corp War
College (Strange, J. 1996. Centers of Gravity
Critical Vulnerabilities Building on the
Clausewitzian Foundation So That We Can All Speak
the Same Language. Quantico, VA Marine Corps
University Foundation) we have developed an
advanced approach to center of gravity
determination, based on the concepts of critical
capabilities, critical requirements and critical
vulnerabilities, which have been recently adopted
into the joint doctrine. We have developed
knowledge bases and agents that are used by
high-ranking officers at the US Army War College
to analyze historic, current and hypothetical war
scenarios with state and non-state actors.
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Critical capabilities needed to be a COG
people
leader
military
receive communication from the highest level
leadership
be protected
be deployable
stay informed
exert power
communicate desires to the highest level
leadership
communicate
be indispensable
industrial capacity
be influential
support the goal
financial capacity
be a driving force
support the highest level leadership
external support
have support
will of multi member force
have a positive impact
be irreplaceable
be influential
ideology
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Illustration Saddam Hussein (Iraq 2003)
Critical capability to
be protected
Corresponding critical requirement
Have means to be protected from all threats
?
Means
Vulnerabilities
Republican Guard Protection Unit ? loyalty not
based on conviction and can be influenced by
US-led coalition
Iraqi Military ? loyalty can be influenced by
US-led coalition ? can be destroyed by US-led
coalition
Complex of Iraqi Bunkers ? location known to US
led coalition ? design known to US led
coalition ? can be destroyed by US-led coalition

• System of Saddam Doubles
• ? loyalty of Saddam Doubles to Saddam can be
  influenced by US-led coalition

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Use of Disciple at the US Army War College
319jw Case Studies in Center of Gravity Analysis
Disciple helps the students to perform a center
of gravity analysis of an assigned war scenario.
Disciple was taught based on the expertise of
Prof. Comello in center of gravity analysis.
Problemsolving
Teaching
DiscipleAgent
KB
Learning
Global evaluations of Disciple by officers from
the Spring 03 course
Disciple helped me to learn to perform a
strategic COG analysis of a scenario
The use of Disciple is an assignment that is well
suited to the course's learning objectives
Disciple should be used in future versions of
this course
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This viewgraph shows the use of Disciple in
319jw Case Studies in Center of Gravity
Analysis (the COG course) at the US Army War
College. First Disciple was taught how to
analyze a scenario, based on the expertise of
Prof. Jerome Comello, the courses instructor.
Then, the students used Disciple as an
intelligent assistant that helps them to develop
a Center of Gravity analysis of a war scenario.
In the last three years, Disciple was used in six
successive sessions of this course (attended by a
total of 55 high-ranking US officers, national
reserve and international fellows), becoming part
of the regular syllabus. The scenarios analyzed
during Spring 2003 were War on Terror 2003, Iraq
2003, IsraelPLO 2003, and North Korea 2003. On
average, a scenario was represented by around 900
facts. The knowledge base of the Disciple agent
contained 586 objects and features, 409 tasks and
419 task reduction and solution composition
rules. The bottom part of this viewgraph shows
the results of some of the global evaluations of
the last version of Disciple, performed by the
officers from the Spring 2003 COG course. The
officers have been asked to express their
disagreement or agreement with the statements
from the viewgraph. These results demonstrate
that the Disciple approach can be used to develop
agents that have been found to be useful for a
complex military task.
27
Student Disciple collaboration
Disciple
Student
28
The student is guided by Disciple to describe the
relevant aspects of a strategic scenario.
Disciple represents the scenario as instances in
its object ontology.
Disciple
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This is a typical screen of the Scenario
Elicitation tool. The left hand side is a tree
of titles and subtitles. It is similar to a table
of contents. Each title (or node) corresponds to
a certain type of information. When the user
clicks on such a node, the agent displays
relevant questions about that node in the right
hand side of the screen. If the user has
previously provided answers to some of those
questions, these answers are also displayed and
the user can revise them. Otherwise the user is
asked to provide the corresponding answers. Some
answers provided by the user may generate
additional nodes in the left hand side. For
instance, if the user has indicated that an
opposing force is a multi-state alliance, the
agent will ask the user to indicate the member
states. Then, for each such state the agent will
create additional nodes in the left hand side.
Clicking on such a node will initiate the dialog
for providing relevant information about that
state. This interaction may continue until the
user has answered all the agents questions.
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Execution of the elicitation scripts
ltobjectgt
Script type Elicit the feature
Has_as_opposing_force for an
instance ltscenario-namegt Controls Question
Name the opposing forces in ltscenario-namegt Answ
er variable ltopposing-forcegt Control type
multiple-line, height 4 Ontology
actions ltopposing-forcegt instance-of
Opposing_force ltscenario-namegt
Has_as_opposing_force ltopposing-forcegt Script
calls Elicit properties of the instance
ltopposing-forcegt in new window
subconcept-of
subconcept-of
Force
subconcept-of
Scenario
Opposing_force
instance-of
Sicily_1943

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This slide illustrates the scenario specification
process. The objects and the features from the
object ontology have elicitation scripts
associated with them, which have been defined by
a knowledge engineer. The left hand side of the
slide shows an example of a script associated
with a feature. This script specifies that in
order to elicit the feature has_as_opposing_force
for an instance of any concept, the agent
should ask the expert to provide the names of the
opposing forces, create an instance for each
given opposing force, and create the relationship
has_as_opposing_force between the initial
instance and each opposing force. After that, the
agent should elicit the properties of each
opposing force. When this script is executed a
pane is created on the screen where the expert
can type the names of the opposing forces. When
the expert enters a name, for instance
Allied_Forces_1943, the agent creates the
instance Allied_Forces_1943 and its relationship
with the instance Sicily_1943. When the expert
enters European_Axis_1943, the agent creates the
instance European_Axis_1943 and its relationship
with Sicily_1943.
32

Sample object ontology
ltobjectgt
subconcept_of
subconcept_of
subconcept_of
subconcept_of
subconcept_of
Scenario
Resource_or_ infrastructure_element
Force
Strategic_COG_relevant_factor
Force_goal
subconcept_of


subconcept_of
subconcept_of
subconcept_of
War_scenario
subconcept_of
Multi_state_force
Group
subconcept_of
subconcept_of
Product
instance_of
Opposing_force
Single_state_force
subconcept_of
subconcept_of
Single_group_force
subconcept_of
Sicily_1943
subconcept_of
instance_of
Multi_state_alliance
Economic_ factor
Strategically_essential_goods_or_materiel
Multi_group_force

Britain_1943
subconcept_of
has asopposingforce
instance_of
has_as_industrial_factor
Equal_partners_ multi_state_alliance
US_1943
component_state

subconcept_of
instance_of
instance_of
subconcept_of
US_7th_Army_(Force_343)
instance_of
component_state
Industrial_ factor
War_materiel_and_transports
instance_of
Allied_Forces_1943
instance_of

Br_8th_Army_(Force_545)
has_as_primary_force_element
has_as_subgroup
subconcept_of
instance_of
instance_of
brief_description
has_as_subgroup
instance_of
Industrial_ capacity
Western_Naval_TF
has_as_subgroup
War_materiel_and_transports_of_US_1943
Allied_forces_operation_Husky
has_as_subgroup
type_of_operations
Eastern_Naval_TF
instance_of
has_as_subgroup
instance_of
is_a_major_generator_of
has_as_subgroup
US_9th_Air_Force
WWII Allied invasionof Sicily in 1943
industrial_capacity_ of_ US_1943
instance_of
combined and joint operations
Northwest_Africa_Air_Force
33
Disciple identifies and tests COG candidates
The students study the logic behind COG
identification and testing
34
Disciple can be asked, at any time, to identify
and test the strategic center of gravity
candidates for the current specification of the
scenario. The previous viewgraph shows the COG
solution viewer. Its left hand side contains the
list of the center of gravity candidates
identified by Disciple for each of the opposing
forces in the Sicily_1943 scenario. For US_1943
they are the will of the people of US, President
Roosevelt, the military of US, and the industrial
capacity of US. When a candidate is selected in
the left hand side of the viewer, its
justification for identification or/and for
testing will be displayed in the right hand side
of the viewer. Disciple uses the task reduction
paradigm to generate these justifications, as
will be presented later.
35
Disciple generates a COG analysis report for the
student to finalize
36
As illustrated before, Disciple guides the
student to identify, study and describe the
relevant aspects of the opposing forces in a
particular scenario. Then Disciple identifies and
tests the strategic center of gravity candidates.
After that Disciple generates a draft analysis
report, a fragment of which is shown in the
previous viewgraph. The first part of this report
contains a description of the scenario, being
generated by Disciple based on the information
elicited from the student. The second part of the
report includes all the center of gravity
candidates identified by Disciple, together with
their justifications for identification and
testing. The student must now finalize this
report by examining each of the center of gravity
candidates and their justifications, completing,
correcting, or even rejecting Disciples
reasoning, and providing an alternative line of
reasoning. This is productive for several
reasons. First, the agent generates its proposed
solutions by applying general reasoning rules and
heuristics learned previously from the courses
instructor, to a new scenario described by the
student. Secondly, center of gravity analysis is
influenced by personal experiences and subjective
judgments, and the student (who has unique
military experience and biases) may have a
different interpretation of certain facts. This
requirement for the critical analysis of the
solutions generated by the agent is an important
educational component of military commanders that
mimics military practice. Commanders have to
critically investigate several courses of actions
proposed by their staff and to make the final
decision on which one to use.
37
Demonstration
Disciple as a strategic leader assistant
Disciple
38
Overview
Learning and problem solving agents Disciple
An agent for center of gravity analysis
Modeling of problem solving through task reduction
Knowledge base object ontology rules
Rule-based problem solving
Control of the problem solving process
Control of modeling, learning and problem solving
Multistrategy rule learning
Multistrategy rule refinement
39
Problem solving approach Task reduction
Disciple uses the task-reduction paradigm

• A complex problem solving task is performed by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutionsof the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m
40
Question-answering guided task reduction
Let T1 be the problem solving task to be
performed.
Finding a solution is an iterative process where,
at each step, we consider some relevant
information that leads us to reduce the current
task to several simpler tasks. The question Q
associated with the current task identifies the
type of information to be considered. The answer
A identifies that piece of information and leads
us to the reduction of the current task.

T1
S1
Q1

S11
A1n
A11
S1n
T1n
S11a
T11a
S11b
T11b

S11b
Q11b

S11bm
S11b1
A11bm
A11b1

T11bm
T11b1
41
Modeling COG analysis through task
reduction (and solution composition)
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Sicily_1943
Task reduction
. . .
What kind of scenario is Sicily_1943?
Sicily_1943 is a war scenario
Solution composition
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Sicily_1943 which is a war scenario
. . .
42
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Sicily_1943 which is a war scenario
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
Which is an opposing force in the Sicily_1943
scenario?
. . .
Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Allied_Forces_1943
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
Is Allied_Forces_1943 a single-member force or a
multi-member force?
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
Allied_Forces_1943 is a multi-member force
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Allied_Forces_1943 which is a multi-member force
. . .
43
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Allied_Forces_1943 which is a multi-member force
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
What type of strategic COG candidate should I
consider for this multi-member force?
. . .
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the multi-member nature of
Allied_Forces_1943
I consider a candidate corresponding to the
multi-member nature of the force
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
I consider a candidate corresponding to a member
of the multi-member force
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to a member of the
Allied_Forces_1943
. . .
44
The will_of_the_people_of_US_1943 is a strategic
COG candidate with respect to the
people_of_US_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to a member of the
Allied_Forces_1943
The will of people of US 1943 is a strategic COG
candidate that cannot be eliminated because it
has all the necessary critical capabilities
Which is a member of Allied_Forces_1943?
. . .
US_1943
. . .
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
US_1943
What kind of force is US 1943?
The will_of_the_people_of_US_1943 is a strategic
COG candidate with respect to the
people_of_US_1943
US_1943 is a single-member force
The will of people of US 1943 is a strategic COG
candidate that cannot be eliminated because it
has all the necessary critical capabilities
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
US_1943 which is a single-member force
. . .
45
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
US 1943 which is a single-member force
. . .
What type of strategic COG candidate should I
consider for this single-member force?
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to the people of US 1943
. . .
I consider a strategic COG candidate with respect
to the people of US 1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to the government of US 1943
. . .
I consider a strategic COG candidate with respect
to the government of US 1943
I consider a strategic COG candidate with respect
to the armed forces of US 1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to the armed forces of US 1943
. . .
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of US 1943
. . .
I consider a candidate corresponding to the
economy US 1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to other sources of moral or physical
strength, power and resistance of US 1943
I consider a candidate corresponding to other
sources of moral or physical strength, power and
resistance of US 1943
. . .
46
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
with respect to the government_of_US_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to the government of US 1943
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
that can be eliminated because it does not have
all the necessary critical capabilities
Who or what is a main controlling element of the
government_of_US_1943?
President Roosevelt that has a critical role in
setting objectives and making decisions
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
with respect to the government_of_US_1943
Identify President Roosevelt as a strategic COG
candidate with respect to the government_of_US_194
3
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
that can be eliminated because it does not have
all the necessary critical capabilities
Test whether President Roosevelt is a viable
strategic COG candidate
47
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
that can be eliminated
Test whether President Roosevelt is a viable
strategic COG candidate
Does President Roosevelt have all the necessary
critical capabilities?
Which are the critical capabilities that
President Roosevelt should have to be a COG
candidate?
The necessary critical capabilities are be
protected, stay informed, communicate, be
influential, be a driving force, have support and
be irreplaceable
No.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be protected
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to be protected. President Roosevelt is protected
by US Service 1943 which has no significant
vulnerability
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to stay informed. President Roosevelt receives
essential intelligence from intelligence agencies
which have no significant vulnerability
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to stay informed
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to communicate through executive orders, through
military orders, and through the Mass Media of US
1943. These communication means have no
significant vulnerabilities
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to communicate
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to be influential because he is the head of the
government of US 1943, the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943, and is a trusted leader
who can use the Mass Media of US 1943. These
influence means have no significant
vulnerabilities.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be influential
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to be a driving force. The main reason for
President Roosevelt to pursue the goal of
unconditional surrender of European Axis is
preventing separate peace by the members of the
Allied Forces. Also, the western democratic
values provides President Roosevelt with
determination to persevere in this goal. There is
no significant vulnerability in the reason and
determination.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be a driving force
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to have support because he is the head of a
democratic government with a history of good
decisions, a trusted commander in chief of the
military, and the people are willing to make
sacrifices for unconditional surrender of
European Axis. The means to secure continuous
support have no significant vulnerability.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to have support
President Roosevelt does not have the critical
capability to be irreplaceable. US 1943 would
maintain the goal of unconditional surrender of
European Axis irrespective of its leader because
the goal was established and the country was
committed to it. There is no significant
vulnerability resulted from the replacement of
President Roosevelt
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be irreplaceable
48
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to be influential because he is the head of the
government of US 1943, the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943, and is a trusted leader
who can use the Mass Media of US 1943. These
influence means have no significant
vulnerabilities.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be influential
Which are the critical requirements for President
Roosevelt to be influential?
Does President Roosevelt satisfy the critical
requirements to be influential?
President Roosevelt needs means to influence the
government, means to influence the military and
means to influence the people
Yes.
President Roosevelt can influence the government
of US 1943 because he is the head of the
government of US 1943. The influence means have
no significant vulnerability.
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the government
President Roosevelt can influence the military of
US 1943 because he is the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943. The influence means have
no significant vulnerability.
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the military
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
people of US 1943, as a trusted leader using the
Mass Media of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the people
49
President Roosevelt can influence the government
of US 1943 because he is the head of the
government of US 1943. The influence means have
no significant vulnerability.
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the government
What is a means for President Roosevelt to
influence the government of US 1943?
President Roosevelt is the head of the government
of US 1943
Test whether the influence of President Roosevelt
over the government of US 1943, as the head of
the government of US 1943, has any significant
vulnerability
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
government of US 1943, as the head of the
government of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Does the influence of President Roosevelt over
the government of US 1943 have any significant
vulnerability?
No
50
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
military of US 1943, as the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the military
What is a means for President Roosevelt to
influence the military of US 1943?
President Roosevelt is the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943
Test whether the influence of President Roosevelt
over the military of US 1943, as the commander in
chief of the military of US 1943, has any
significant vulnerability
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
military of US 1943, as the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Does the influence of President Roosevelt over
the military of US 1943 have any significant
vulnerability?
No
51
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
people of US 1943, as a trusted leader using the
Mass Media of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the people
What is a means for President Roosevelt to
influence the people of US 1943?
President Roosevelt is trusted by the people of
US 1943 and can use Mass Media of US 1943 to
influence them
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
people of US 1943, as a trusted leader using the
Mass Media of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Test whether the influence of President Roosevelt
over the people of US 1943, as a trusted leader
using the Mass Media of US 1943, has any
significant vulnerability
Does the influence of President Roosevelt over
the people of US 1943 have any significant
vulnerability?
No
52
Overview
Learning and problem solving agents Disciple
An agent for center of gravity analysis
Modeling of problem solving through task reduction
Knowledge base object ontology rules
Rule-based problem solving
Control of the problem solving process
Control of modeling, learning and problem solving
Multistrategy rule learning
Multistrategy rule refinement
53
The structure of the knowledge base
Knowledge Base Object ontology Task reduction
rules
The object ontology is a hierarchical description
of the objects from the domain, specifying their
properties and relationships. It includes both
descriptions of types of objects (called
concepts) and descriptions of specific objects
(called instances).
The task reduction rules specify generic problem
solving steps of reducing complex tasks to
simpler tasks. They are described using the
objects from the ontology.
54
Fragment of the object ontology
governing_body
ad_hoc_ governing_body
established_ governing_body
other_type_of_ governing_body
state_government
group_governing_body
feudal_god_ king_government
other_state_ government
dictator
other_ group_ governing_ body
democratic_ government
monarchy
deity_figure
representative_ democracy
parliamentary_ democracy
government_ of_Italy_1943
democratic_ council_ or_board
autocratic_ leader
totalitarian_ government
government_ of_US_1943
government_ of_Britain_1943
chief_and_ tribal_council
theocratic_ government
military_ dictatorship
police_ state
fascist_ state
religious_ dictatorship
theocratic_ democracy
communist_ dictatorship
religious_ dictatorship
government_ of_Germany_1943
government_ of_USSR_1943
55
The instances and the concepts are organized into
generalization hierarchies like this hierarchy of
governing bodies. Notice, however, that the
generalization hierarchies are not always as
strict as this one, where each concept is a
subconcept of only one concept. For instance,
the concept strategic_raw_material is both a
subconcept of raw_material and a subconcept of
strategically_essential_resource_or_infrastructur
e_element.
56
Fragment of feature ontology
has_as_controlling_leader D agent R person
has_as_religious_leader D governing_body R
person
has_as_god_king D governing_body R person
has_as_monarch D governing_body R person
has_as_military_leader D governing_body R person
has_as_political_leader D governing_body R
person
has_as_commander_in_chief D force R person
has_as_head_of_government D governing_body R
person
has_as_head_of_state D governing_body R person
57
An object feature is itself defined as a
subconcept of another object feature, as
illustrated in the previous slide. Therefore, the
object features are also hierarchically
organized. Notice that if feature1 is a
subconcept of feature2, than the domain of
feature1 should be less general than or at most
as general as the domain of feature2. The same
condition should hold between the ranges of the
two features. For instance, has_as_political_lea
der is a subconcept of has_as_controling_leader
. The domain of the first feature is
governing_body which is less general than the
domain of the second feature, which is
agent. Also, the range of has_as_political_lead
er is the same as the range of
has_as_controling_leader.
58
Sample task
A task is a representation of anything that an
agent may be asked to perform.
General task

Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the ?O1
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of a force The
economy is ?O1
Condition ?O1 is type_of_economy
INFORMAL STRUCTURE OF THE TASK
FORMAL STRUCTURE OF THE TASK
Instantiated task

Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of a force The
economy is economy_of_US_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy_of_US_1943
INFORMAL STRUCTURE OF THE TASK
FORMAL STRUCTURE OF THE TASK
59
Exercise
How could the agent generate plausible
formalizations?
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Sicily_1943
What kind of scenario is Sicily_1943?
Sicily_1943 is a war scenario
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Sicily_1943 which is a war scenario
60
A task is a representation of anything that an
agent may be asked to perform. The informal
structure of a task is a phrase in free-form
English with variables. The formal structure of
a task contains a task name and several task
features. The task name is an abstract English
phrase with no variables. The task features are
also phrases, but they may contain variables,
such as ?O1. The formal structure of the task
contains also a condition that restricts the
values that the variable can take. For example,
in the case of the task from this slide, ?O1 has
to be an instance of the concept
type_of_economy. Replacing the variables with
objects that satisfy the condition leads to the
creation of specific tasks, as illustrated at the
bottom of this slide.
61
Sample task reduction rule

IF Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of a force which is
an industrial economy The industrial economy is
?O1

IF Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the ?O1 which is an
industrial_economy
Question Who or what is a strategically
critical element with respect to the ?O1
? Answer ?O2 because it is an essential
generator of war_materiel for ?O3 from the
strategic perspective
Condition?O1 is industrial_economy
?O2 is industrial_capacity generates_essential_w
ar_materiel_from_ the_strategic_perspect
ive_of ?O3 ?O3 is multi_state_force has_as_mem
ber ?O4 ?O4 is force has_as_economy
?O1 has_as_industrial_factor ?O2
THEN Identify ?O2 as a COG candidate with respect
to the ?O1 Test ?O2 which is a strategic COG
candidate with respect to the ?O1
THEN Identify a strategically critical element as
a COG candidate with respect to an industrial
economy The strategically critical element is
?O2 The industrial economy is ?O1 Test a
strategically critical element which is a
strategic COG candidate with respect to an
industrial economy The strategically critical
element is ?O2 The industrial economy is ?O1
INFORMAL STRUCTURE OF THE RULE
FORMAL STRUCTURE OF THE RULE
A rule is an ontology-based representation of an
elementary problem solving step.
62
A rule has an informal structure and a formal
structure. The informal structure should be read
as follows IF I have to perform the
task Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the ?O1 which is an industrial
economy And the question Who or what is a
strategically critical element with respect to
the ?O1 ? Has the answer ?O2 because it is an
essential generator of war materiel for ?O3 from
the strategic perspective THEN I should
perform the following two tasks Identify ?O2 as
a COG candidate with respect to the ?O1 Test ?O2
which is a strategic COG candidate with respect
to the ?O1 The formal structure should be read
as follows IF I have to perform the
task Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of a force which is
an industrial economy, where the industrial
economy is ?O1 And the following condition is
satisfied ?O1 is an industrial economy,
and ?O2 is an industrial capacity that
generates essential war materiel from the
strategic perspective of ?O3, and ?O3 is a
multi-state force that has ?O4 as one of its
members, and ?O4 is a force that has as
economy ?O1, and as industrial factor ?O2 THEN I
should perform the following two tasks Identify
a strategically critical element as a COG
candidate with respect to an industrial economy
The strategically critical element is ?O2 The
industrial economy is ?O1 Test a strategically
critical element which is a strategic COG
candidate with respect to an industrial
economy The strategically critical element is
?O2 The industrial economy is ?O1 Notice that
the elements of the condition are concepts and
relationships from the object ontology.
63
Overview
Learning and problem solving agents Disciple
An agent for center of gravity analysis
Modeling of problem solving through task reduction
Knowledge base Object ontology Rules
Rule-based problem solving
Control of the problem solving process
Control of modeling, learning and problem solving
Multistrategy rule learning
Multistrategy rule refinement
64
Illustration of rule-based task reduction

Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of a force which is
an industrial economy The industrial economy
is economy_of_US_1943
?O1 ? economy_of_US_1943
Rule condition

IF Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of a force which is
an industrial economy The industrial economy is
?O1
industrial_economy
instance-of
force
Condition?O1 is industrial_economy
?O2 is industrial_capacity generates_essential_w
ar_materiel_from_
the_strategic_perspective_of ?O3 ?O3 is
multi_state_force has_as_member ?O4 ?O4 is
force has_as_economy ?O1 has_as_industrial_facto
r ?O2
economy_of_US_1943
instance-of
has_as_economy
?O4
industrial_capacity
has_as_industrial_factor
instance-of
?O2
multi_state_force
generates_essential_war_materiel_from_
the_strategic_perspective_of
has_as_member
THEN Identify a strategically critical element as
a COG candidate with respect to an industrial
economy The strategically critical element is
?O2 The industrial economy is ?O1 Test a
strategically critical element which is a
strategic COG candidate with respect to an
industrial economy The strategically critical
element is ?O2 The industrial economy is ?O1
instance-of
?O3
65
Let us consider that the current problem solving
task is Identify and test a strategic COG
candidate corresponding to the economy of a force
which is an industrial economy The
industrial economy is economy_of_US_1943 The
agent will look in its knowledge base for a rule
that has this type of task in the IF part. Such a
rule is shown in the right hand side of the
slide. As one can see, the IF task becomes
identical with the task to be performed if ?O1 is
replaced with economy_of_US_1943. Next the agent
has to check that the condition of the rule is
satisfied for this value of ?O1. The left hand
side of the slide shows what conditions need to
be satisfied by economy_of_US_1943, ?O2, ?O3 and
?O4. This condition is satisfied if there are
instances of ?O2, ?O3 and ?O4 in the object
ontology that satisfy all the relationships
specified in the left hand side of the slide.
66
Matchings
Object ontology
Rule condition
force
industrial_economy
subconcept-of
instance-of
single_member_force
force
industrial_economy
economy_of_US_1943
subconcept-of
instance-of
instance-of
single_state_force
has_as_economy
economy_of_US_1943
?O4
instance-of
industrial_capacity
has_as_economy
has_as_industrial_factor
instance-of
US_1943
industrial_capacity
has_as_industrial_factor
?O2
multi_state_force
instance-of
generates_essential_war_materiel_from_
the_strategic_perspective_of
has_as_member
Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
multi_state_force
instance-of
subconcept-of
multi_state_alliance
?O3
subconcept-of
generates_essential_war_materiel_from_
the_strategic_perspective_of
equal_partner_multi_state_alliance
?O2 ? industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
?O3 ? Allied_forces_1943
has_as_member
?O4 ? US_1943
instance-of
Allied_forces_1943
67
The partially instantiated condition of the rule,
shown in the left hand side of the slide, is
matched successfully with the object ontology
fragment shown in the right hand side of the
slide. ?O4 matches US_1943 because both have the
same features and the corresponding values of
these features also match. Both ?O4 and US_1943
are forces. Indeed, US_1943 is an instance of a
single-state force, which is a subconcept of a
single-member force, which is a subconcept of a
force. Therefore, using the transitivity rule
discussed above, US_1943 is a force. Both ?O4 and
US_1943 have the feature has_as_economy with the
value economy_of_US_1943. Finally, both ?O4 and
US_1943 have the feature has_as_industrial_factor
and the corresponding values are ?O2 and
industrial_capacity_of_US_1943, respectively. Now
one has to show that ?O2 and industrial_capacity_o
f_US_1943 match. ?O2 is an industrial capacity,
and industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 is an
industrial capacity. Both ?O2 and
industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 have the feature
generates_essential_war_materiel_from_the_strategi
c_perspective_of, with the values ?O3 and
Allied_forces_1943, respectively. Therefore one
has to show that ?O3 and Allied_forces_1943
match. ?O3 is a multi_state_force.
Allied_forces_1943 is an equal_partner_multi_state
_alliance, which is a multi_state_alliance, which
is a multi_state_force. Therefore
Allied_forces_1943 is also a multi_state_force. Fi
nally, both ?O3 and Allied_forces_1943 have the
feature has_as_member with the values ?O4 and
US_1943, respectively. Moreover, ?O4 and US_1943
have already matched. Therefore the entire
matching was successful. As the result of these
matching, the rules variables are instantiated
as follows ?O2 ? industrial_capacity_of_US_19
43 ?O3 ? Allied_forces_1943 ?O4 ? US_1943
68

?O1 ? economy_of_US_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of a force which is
an industrial economy The industrial economy
is economy_of_US_1943

IF Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of a force which is
an industrial economy The industrial economy is
?O1
Rule condition
industrial_economy
Condition?O1 is industrial_economy
?O2 is industrial_capacity generates_essential_w
ar_materiel_from_
the_strategic_perspective_of ?O3 ?O3 is
multi_state_force has_as_member ?O4 ?O4 is
force has_as_economy ?O1 has_as_industrial_facto
r ?O2
instance-of
force
economy_of_US_1943
instance-of
has_as_economy
?O4
industrial_capacity
has_as_industrial_factor
instance-of
?O2
multi_state_force
THEN Identify a strategically critical element as
a COG candidate with respect to an industrial
economy The strategically critical element is
?O2 The industrial economy is ?O1 Test a
strategically critical element which is a
strategic COG candidate with respect to an
industrial economy The strategically critical
element is ?O2 The industrial economy is ?O1
generates_essential_war_materiel_from_
the_strategic_perspective_of
has_as_member
instance-of
?O3

Identify a strategically critical element as a
COG candidate with respect to an industrial
economy The strategically critical element is
industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 The industrial
economy is economy_of_US_1943 Test a
strategically critical element which is a
strategic COG candidate with respect to an
industrial economy The strategically critical
element is industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 The
industrial economy is economy_of_US_1943
?O1 ? economy_of_US_1943
?O2 ? industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
?O3 ? Allied_forces_1943
?O4 ? US_1943
69
The rules condition is satisfied for the
following instantiations of the variables ?O1
? economy_of_US_1943 ?O2 ?
industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 ?O3 ?
Allied_forces_1943 ?O4 ? US_1943 Therefore
the IF task can be reduced to the following THEN
tasks Identify a strategically critical element
as a COG candidate with respect to an industrial
economy The strategically critical element is
industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 The industrial
economy is economy_of_US_1943 Test a
strategically critical element which is a
strategic COG candidate with respect to an
industrial economy The strategically critical
element is industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 The
industrial economy is economy_of_US_1943 Disciple
uses the informal structure of this rule to
generate the sentences to be shown to the user,
as illustrated in the next slide.
70
Generating the informal reduction
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy_of_US_1943 which is
an industrial_economy
?O1 ? economy_of_US_1943

IF Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the ?O1 which is an
industrial_economy
QuestionWho or what is a strategically critical
element with respect to the ?O1 ? Answer?O2
because it is an essential generator of
war_materiel for ?O3 from the strategic
perspective
Who or what is a strategically critical element
with respect to the economy_of_US_1943?
industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 because it is an
essential generator of war materiel for
Allied_forces_1943 from the strategic perspective
THEN Identify ?O2 as a COG candidate with respect
to the ?O1 Test ?O2 which is a strategic COG
candidate with respect to the ?O1
Identify industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 as a COG
candidate with respect to the economy_of_US_1943
Test industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 which is a
strategic COG candidate with respect to the
economy_of_US_1943
?O1 ? economy_of_US_1943
?O2 ? industrial_capacity_of_US_1943
?O3 ? Allied_forces_1943
?O4 ? US_1943
71
Successive rule applications
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy_of_US_1943
Rule_1
What is the type of economy_of_US_1943 ?
industrial_economy
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy_of_US_1943 which is
an industrial_economy
Rule_2
Who or what is a strategically critical element
with respect to the economy_of_US_1943?
industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 because it is an
essential generator of war materiel for
Allied_forces_1943 from the strategic perspective
Identify industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 as a COG
candidate with respect to the economy_of_US_1943
Test industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 which is a
strategic COG candidate with respect to the
economy_of_US_1943
72
Task reduction rule with Except whe