Astronomy & the Process of Science

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Astronomy the Process of Science

• What makes something scientific?
• What makes Astronomy a science?
• Why is Astrology not science?

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Final Exam Essay Question!

• How does the process of science work? What are
  its typical steps?  Illustrate your answer with
  multiple astronomical examples of good science
  from the class. (This question is not from the
  text directly--you'll need to synthesize an
  answer from reading and class discussion.)

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Science?

• "I am often amazed at how much more capability
  and enthusiasm for science there is among
  elementary school youngsters than among college
  students."- Carl Sagan

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Science?

• Finding out about Nature
• NOT always right, sure, certainty!
• More often? Confused! Wrong!
• Richard Feynman

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Hallmarks of Science

• Seek explanations from natural causes
• Not super-natural
• example You hear a sound at night in the house
• natural causes earthquake, mice, pets, children,
  house settling, sonic boom, thunder
• supernatural causes ghosts!

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Hallmarks of Science

• Seek explanations from natural causes
• Progresses through creation testing of models
  of nature that explain observations as simply as
  possible.
• If it was a storm, do you see lightning?
• If it was an earthquake, can you check news for
  seismic activity?

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Hallmarks of Science

• Seek explanations from natural causes
• Progresses through creation and testing of models
  of nature that explain observations as simply as
  possible.
• Makes testable predictions, and revises or
  abandons models if predictions dont agree with
  observations. (cf. nature of science)

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The process of science

• Observe things in nature
• Patterns (seasons repeat every year)
• Motions (planets move across the sky)
• Events (eclipses!)
• What isnt there! (feeling like we are moving)

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The process of science

• Ask Questions about what you observed
• What? When? Where? How? and WHY?
• Research prior explanations models
• Requires imagination to tell what is important

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The process of science

• Create Explanations (theories) that account for
  what you have observed
• These should be consistent with what is already
  known
• Use these to predict additional observations,
  patterns, events, trends

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The process of science

• Develop TESTABLE hypotheses
• An Educated Guess
• With a specific, narrow focus
• Do the experiment
• Feynman Science is how not to be fooled.

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The process of science

• Analyze Experimental Results
• Most likely result you cant tell for certain
  if your hypothesis was right!
• Next most likely hypothesis is wrong!
• And if you are right?
• .

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The process of science

• Why arent you certain??
• Always uncertainty in every measurement, and in
  every result.
• Experiment itself might not be able to tell.

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The process of science

• Develop Conclusions based on data
• Anticipate sources of error
• Refine or Discard Hypothesis
• Develop further tests Repeat!
• Compare results w/ existing theories

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The process of science

• Share preliminary results
• Submit a paper to peer-reviewed journal
• Ask colleagues for input
• Present at conferences
• Discuss, Debate, Defend results
• ARGUE

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The process of science

• Seek independent confirmationthen
• Revise Theories
• Do new experiments
• Develop new techniques, equipment,
• Publish again

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The process of science

• AstrologyPersonalities and actions of people
  can be studied, and similarities between people
  can be identified.
• The Sun, Moon, Planets stars and their
  alignments and aspects are responsible.

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Astrology

• Consider your sunsign

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OK, so why isnt Astrology a science???

• Doesnt astrology follow that process of
  science?
• Observe behavior trends
• Categorize into signs
• Create a theory the planets and stars are
  responsible
• Test read your horoscope! Thats ME!!
• Publish

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OK, so why isnt Astrology a science???

• Consider the following
• Im an Aries. My astrological sign fits me
  perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would
  have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
  did! It was 100 right.
• From this one instance, could you predict that on
  the next day it will also be right?

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OK, so why isnt Astrology a science???

• No. You cannot make a valid conclusion from one
  instance where a theory does coincide with a
  prediction.
• Science demands continual testing
• And science requires that if the prediction
  DOESNT match the result even once, the theory
  must be modified!

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OK, so why isnt Astrology a science???
Im an Aries. My astrological sign fits me
perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would
have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
did! It was 100 right.

• But what about this person? Astrology worked,
  didnt it?
• Doesnt that count for something?

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OK, so why isnt Astrology a science???

• Im an Aries. My astrological sig fits me
  perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would
  have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
  did! It was 100 right.
• In science, you must look for OTHER possible
  causes before you decide one particular theory is
  responsible!
• Coincidence does not mean causality

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OK, so why isnt Astrology a science???

• Im an Aries. My astrological sig fits me
  perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would
  have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
  did! It was 100 right.
• Other possibilities?
• Did every horoscope match perfectly?
• Did everything go great or just what you chose
  to remember?
• Do you ever meet strangers on days when your
  horoscope doesnt say you would?

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OK, so why isnt Astrology a science???

• Im an Aries. My astrological sig fits me
  perfectly. My horoscope today said that I would
  have a great day today and meet a stranger, and I
  did! It was 100 right.
• Other possibilities?
• Did everyone born on the same day have the same
  results?
• Could your belief bias you to see what you
  expect to see?

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Examining Astrology Scientifically

• Astrology maintainsa) Personalities and
  actions of people can be studied, and
  similarities between people can be identified.
• b) The planets and stars are responsible.

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Examining Astrology Scientifically

• AstrologyPersonalities and actions of people
  can be studied, and similarities between people
  can be identified.
• The planets and stars are responsible.
• The first part can be true! Psychology!
• The second part is not.

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The process of science

• Consider the followingThe planet is getting
  warmer and warmer. Nature (volcanoes, the sun,
  cosmic rays) is responsible, not people.
• The first part can be true.
• The second part might not be entirely true!

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Summary Process of Science

• observation of data, developing questions about
  trends, differences, unique occurrences seen
• research into previous work on similar questions
• building models creating testable hypotheses
• designing, gathering new data through,
  experiments
• testing refining the models based on the
  analysis of new data collected

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Summary Process of Science

• modifying or discarding incorrect hypotheses
• developing interconnected hypotheses into
  theories
• sharing results with peers for independent
  evaluation and testing
• publishing findings in peer-reviewed journals so
  that the community of science can advance.

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Science or Non-Science?

• Could these be evaluated scientifically?
• The Yankees are the best baseball team of all
  time.
• Several kilometers below its surface, Jupiters
  moon Europa has an ocean of liquid water
• My house is haunted by ghosts who make creaking
  noises I hear every night.
• Dogs are smarter than cats.

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Science or Non-Science?

• Could these be evaluated scientifically?
• There is no liquid water on the surface of Mars
  today.
• Children born when Jupiter is in front of Taurus
  are more likely to be musicians than other
  children.
• Aliens can manipulate time so that they can
  abduct people and perform experiments on them
  without people every realizing they were taken.

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Science or Non-Science?

• Could these be evaluated scientifically?
• Newtons law of gravity works as well for
  explaining orbits of planets around other stars
  as it does for planets in our own solar system.
• God created the laws of motion that were
  discovered by Newton.
• A huge fleet of alien spacecraft will land on
  Earth on January 1, 2020.