BUSINESS B8

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BUSINESS B8

• Emerging Trends and Technologies

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Learning Outcomes

• Identify the trends that will have the greatest
  impact on future business
• Identify the technologies that will have the
  greatest impact on future business
• Explain why understanding trends and new
  technologies can help an organization prepare for
  the future

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Introduction

• Obtaining a broad view of emerging trends and new
  technologies as they relate to business can help
  an organization anticipate and prepare for the
  future
• Organizations that can most effectively grasp the
  deep currents of technological evolution can use
  their knowledge to protect themselves against
  sudden and fatal technological obsolescence

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Trends

• Trend analysis the examination of a trend to
  identify its nature, causes, speed of
  development, and potential impacts
• Trend monitoring trends viewed as particularly
  important in a specific community, industry, or
  sector are carefully monitored, watched, and
  reported to key decision makers
• Trend projection when numerical data is
  available a trend can be plotted on graph paper
  to display changes through time and into the
  future
• Computer simulation complex systems can be
  modeled by means of mathematical equations and
  different scenarios can be run against the model
  to determine what if analysis
• Historical analysis the study of historical
  events in order to anticipate the outcome of
  current developments

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Top reasons organizations should study trends
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Trends Shaping Our Future

• Worlds population will double in the next 40
  years
• Population in developed countries is living
  longer
• Growth in information industries creates a
  knowledge-dependent global society
• The global economy is becoming more integrated
• The economy and society are dominated by
  technology
• Pace of technological innovation is increasing
• Time is becoming one of the most precious
  commodities

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The worlds population will double over the next
40 years

• Potential business impact
• Global agriculture will be required to supply as
  much food as has been produced during all of
  human history to meet needs over the next 40
  years
• Developed nations will find that retirees will
  have to remain on the job to remain competitive
• Developed nations will begin to increase
  immigration limits

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Population in developed countries is living longer

• Potential business impact
• Global demand for elderly products and services
  will grow quickly in the coming decades
• The cost of health care is destined to skyrocket
• Pharmaceutical companies will be pushed for
  advances in geriatric medicine

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The growth in information industries is creating
a knowledge-dependent global society

• 83 of American management personnel will be
  knowledge workers by 2005
• A typical large organization in 2010 will have
  fewer than half the management levels of its
  counterpart in 1990, and about 1/3 the number of
  managers
• Potential business impact
• Top managers must be computer-literate to retain
  their jobs and achieve success
• Knowledge workers are generally higher paid and
  their proliferation is increasing overall
  prosperity
• Entry-level and unskilled positions are requiring
  a growing level of education
• Information now flows from front-office workers
  to higher management for analysis
• Downsizing, restructuring, reorganization,
  outsourcing, and layoffs will continue

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The global economy is becoming more integrated

• International outsourcing is on the rise
• The European Union has relaxed its borders and
  capital controls
• Internet users numbered about 500 million
  worldwide in 2003, Internet users are growing by
  6 monthly
• Potential business impact
• Demand for personnel in distant countries will
  increase the need for foreign language training
  and employee incentives suited to other cultures
• E-business and the Internet will reduce the cost
  of doing business
• The Internet will allow small companies to
  compete with worldwide giants with relatively
  little investment

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The economy and society are dominated by
technology

• Computers are becoming a part of our environment
• By 2007, artificial intelligence and expert
  systems will help most companies and government
  agencies assimilate data and solve problems
  beyond the range of todays computers
• Personal robots will appear in the home by 2010
• Potential business impact
• New technologies provide dozens of new
  opportunities to create businesses and jobs
• Automation will continue to decrease the cost of
  products and services, making it possible to
  reduce prices while improving profits
• Demand for scientists, engineers, and technicians
  will continue to grow

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Pace of technological innovation is increasing

• Medical knowledge is doubling every eight years
• 50 of what students learn in their freshman year
  of college is obsolete, revised, or taken for
  granted by their senior year
• All of todays technical knowledge will represent
  only 1 percent of the knowledge that will be
  available in 2050
• Potential business impact
• Shortened time-to-market for products and
  services
• Tighter competition based on new technologies

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Time is becoming one of the worlds most precious
commodities

• U.S. workers spend 10 more time on the job than
  they did a decade ago
• European executives and nonunionized workers face
  the same trend
• This high-pressured environment is increasing the
  need for any product or service that saves time
  or simplifies life
• Potential business impact
• Companies must take an active role in helping
  their employees balance their work and lives
• Stress-related problems affecting employee morale
  and wellness will continue to grow
• Use of the Internet will continue to grow as the
  time to perform activities, such as shopping at a
  mall, evaporates

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The following technologies have the potential to
change our future

• Digital ink
• Digital paper
• Radio frequency identification (RFID)
• Teleliving
• Alternative energy sources
• Autonomic computing

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Digital Ink (or Electronic Ink)

• refers to technology that digitally represents
  handwriting in its natural form
• Digital ink can be used in many applications
• Point-of-sale signs
• Next generation displays in mobile devices and
  PDAs
• Thin, portable electronic books and newspapers
• RadioPaper dynamic high-resolution electronic
  display that combines a paperlike reading
  experience with the ability to access information
  anytime, anywhere

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Digital Paper (or Electronic Paper)

• any paper that is optimized for any type of
  digital printing
• The major difference between paper produced from
  a tree and paper produced in a laboratory is that
  information on a digital paper sheet can be
  altered thousands of times and not degrade over
  time
• Potential business impact
• Paperlike displays will replace newspapers,
  magazines, and books
• Reusable paper is an environmentally sound idea

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Digital Paper
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Digital ink and digital paper past, present, and
future
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Radio frequency identification (RFID)

• RFID uses active or passive tags in the form of
  chips or smart labels that can store unique
  identifiers and relay this information to
  electronic readers
• RFID systems are automated, reducing the need for
  manual scanning, such as required with a bar code
• Potential business impact
• Reduces the labor required to monitor goods
  movement and inventory flow through a supply
  chain
• Allows manufacturers and retailers to complement
  existing systems while gathering more information
• Provides complete supply chain visibility without
  the prohibitive labor costs and error rates
  associated with a manual system
• RFID helps enforce security by conducting
  automatic inventory counts

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Comparison of bar code labeling to RFID
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Closing Case OneMail with PostalOne

• United States Postal Services (USPS)
  productivity has grown by only 11 percent over
  the past three decades
• USPS is pursuing several e-business projects to
  help increase growth including
• NetPost Mailing Online
• Post Electronic Courier Service
• NetPost.Certified
• EBillPay
• Do you think the USPSs steps are far-reaching
  enough to ensure its relevance in e-business?
• What other strategic alliances, akin to its
  partnership with CheckFree, can the Postal
  Service develop to stay competitive?
• Why would the USPS compete in a market that
  private companies already serve well?

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Teleliving

• Teleliving refers to using information devices
  and the Internet to conduct all aspects of life
  seamlessly
• Includes shopping, working, learning, playing,
  healing, and even praying
• Each year, four billion chips are embedded in
  everything from coffee makers to Cadillacs
• Potential business impact
• In the future, people will move through a
  constant stream of information summoned at the
  touch of a finger
• Virtual assistant (VA) a small program stored
  on a PC or portable device that monitors e-mails,
  faxes, messages, and phone calls. VAs will mimic
  real assistants helping individuals solve
  problems
• Robotic salespeople will take on human
  appearances and perform all tasks associated with
  a sales job

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Alternative Energy Sources

• Wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, solar, and other
  alternative energy sources will account for 30
  percent of all energy use
• By 2010 nuclear plants will supply 16 of Russia
  and eastern Europes energy
• Potential business impact
• China, India, South America, and Russia are
  modernizing their economies, which increases
  their needs for energy
• Cost of alternative energy sources is decreasing
• Deregulation of the energy industry is expected
  to increase innovation and foster a wide variety
  of new energy sources
• Oil will remain the worlds most important energy
  source

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Autonomic Computing

• Autonomic computing a self-managing computing
  model named after, and patterned on, the human
  bodys autonomic nervous system
• Potential business impact
• Autonomic computing will be used in complex IT
  infrastructures for security, storage, network
  management, and redundancy/failover
• Computers will monitor components and fine-tune
  workflows
• Autonomic computers will be able to self-heal
• Autonomic computers will be able to self-protect

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Autonomic Computing