The Iron Triangle

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The Iron Triangle

• The Political Influence of the Military

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I. The Cold War and Permanent Defense

• Strong military is institutionalized becomes
  interest group vying for government funds

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1. Defense Spending Since 1940
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2. USA vs. Everyone Else
USA 586.25 billion in FY 2007 (666 b in 2008)
China Russia Japan UK France Italy
India Israel Iran North Korea
Germany S.
Arabia S. Korea Syria
Next 50
0 50 100 150 200
250 300 350 400 450
500 550
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3. Bureaucracy Dominated by Defense
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DHS Spending
2006 2007 2008 2009
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B. Military resistance to nuclear warfighting
LNOs

• Problem US nuclear war plan (SIOP) had no
  contingency calling for less than a few hundred
  nuclear weapons
• Eisenhower demands revisions to allow use of
  single weapons for political purposes (limited
  retaliation, response to conventional war)
• So does Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Carter,
  Reagan.yet SIOP never updated to include LNOs

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C. 1986 Goldwater-Nichols

• Origins
• Failed/difficult joint operations of 1970s-1980s
  Congressional pressure for interservice unity
• Joint Chiefs of Staff (commanders of the
  services) oppose reorganization
• Nearly five years of lobbying and horse-trading
  follow
• Key provision for our purposes Chairman of Joint
  Chiefs of Staff established as central military
  advisor to President
• Effects
• Notable reduction in inter-service rivalry
• Military now speaks with one voice more
  difficult for civilians to oppose

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II. The Military Learns to Play Politics A.
Military Opposition to Clinton

• Origins
• Characteristics of the President avoided Vietnam
  service, did drugs, expressed loathing for
  military service in 1969 letter, protested
  Vietnam War
• Increasing partisanship in military (probably due
  to end of conscription) military shifted
  Republican from 1970s-1990s (to about 21 in
  general, up to 91 among elite officers)

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Recent Trends Rise of independents
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d. The Gays in the Military Controversy

• Clinton promises to allow openly gay people to
  serve in the US Armed forces
• Widespread military opposition prevents policy
  implementation
• Colin Powell (Chairman of JCS) denounces policy
  in Congressional hearings
• Two Marine officers publish editorial in
  Washington Post warning that unless JCS keeps
  ban, it risks losing the loyalty of junior
  officers. Notes that a soldier swears
  allegiance to the Constitution, not to the
  Commander-in-Chief
• Congress responds to military lobbying by
  codifying ban as law, preventing future
  Presidents from overturning it

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2. Symptoms Repeated insubordination

• Clintons first visit to aircraft carrier marked
  by open mockery to reporters by both enlisted
  personnel and officers
• Air Force Major Gen. Harold Campbell forced to
  resign after he called President Clinton a
  "gay-loving, draft-dodging, pot-smoking,
  womanizing Commander-in-Chief
• JCS openly opposes policies of Defense Secretary
  Les Aspin in 1993 ? repeated leaks to press by
  military officers ? Clinton forces Aspin to
  resign
• Air Force chief of staff retires early
  (unprecedented), criticizes Clinton

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B. Military Criticism of Rumsfeld

• Rumsfeld tries to implement Revolution in
  Military Affairs services oppose cuts in
  weapons systems
• Rumsfeld attacks generals who insist occupation
  of Iraq will require more than 100,000 troops
• Retired generals begin to criticize Rumsfeld
• Democrats find many to sign anti-Rumsfeld
  statements
• Republicans respond with pro-Rumsfeld generals of
  their own
• Note Civilian parties are competing for the
  endorsement of the military!

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C. Procurement The Iron Triangle

• Congress, the Pentagon, and Defense Contractors

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1. Campaign Cash Defense Sector
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2. Contracts and Congress

• Pentagon and defense contractors spread
  sub-contract work to key districts/states
• Programs often use many more contractors/locations
  than required, inflating costs (but maximizing
  political survivability)

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4. Example The F-22 Raptor

• a. Overview
• Planned during Cold War to defeat future Soviet
  fighters
• Estimated cost 68 billion for 750 fighters
  (initial estimate) ? now down to 339 fighters
  at the same price
• 1999 House tries to kill F-22
• All six members of JCS publicly condemn decision
• Congress discovers F-22 has 1000 subcontractors
  in 42 states!

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b. Campaign Cash Lockheed-Martin
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d. Outcome F-22 Preserved

• Clinton threatens to veto cuts to F-22
• House-Senate conference removes provision

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e. Long-Term Decade required to kill the program

• Rumsfeld fails to kill it (Congress refuses to
  cut it)
• 2006 GAO recommends against further spending
• F-22 still in FY2007 budget, despite repeated
  criticism by Rumsfeld
• 65 billion now buys only 183 planes

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ii. Gates succeeds after years of preparation

• Gates takes office, avoids adversarial
  relationship with military (unlike Rumsfeld, he
  suggests no radical changes)
• June 2008 Gates uses nuclear weapons screw-ups
  as excuse to fire Air Force Secretary and Chief
  of Staff (both vocal supporters of the F-22)
• 2009 Gates announces plan to kill the F-22
• Proposes speeding development of F-35 (also built
  by Lockheed)
• New top Air Force officials write an editorial in
  favor of killing the program even though they
  earlier supported it!
• Lockheed fears losing the new funds, so backs off
  from lobbying for F-22. CEO I embrace
  Secretary Gatess call to put the interests of
  the United States first above the interests of
  agencies, services and contractors and I will
  support him in every way.
• Representatives find it hard to mobilize voters
  without support of Lockheed pro-F-22 forces are
  outvoted.

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5. More examples FY2006 Budget

• Secretary of Navy proposes building new destroyer
  in one shipyard instead of two in MS and ME
  (saves 300 million)
• MS, ME Senators place hold on Secretarys
  promotion to deputy defense secretary
• ME Senator attaches rider to defense bill in
  Armed Services Committee prohibiting
  consolidation of production
• Rumsfeld suggests cutting major conventional
  systems for 5th year in a row -- effort is
  unsuccessful. Services propose cutting personnel
  to pay for new systems (the Washington Monument
  ploy)

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6. Does the Iron Triangle threaten civilian
control?

• Executive control decreased Evidence includes
  Carters naval strategy and resistance to
  Clinton/Rumsfeld
• Congressional control increased Unhappy
  commanders lobby Congress to undo DoD decisions
• Isnt this what Johnson wants a move away from
  executive branch dominance?

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D. Conclusions

• Military has become politicized
• Permanent standing army is large enough to be
  economically important
• Military (especially officers) have generally
  become more partisan (with possible recent
  decline)
• Military has learned to protect interests within
  political system (organized lobbying)
• Tradition of deference has changed imagine
  generals publicly criticizing Lend-Lease or
  Trumans integration of the Army