Land Use/Cover Change Effects on

1
Land Use/Cover Change Effects on Terrestrial
Carbon Sources and Sinks
Josep Canadell CSIRO, Canberra,
Australia pep.canadell_at_csiro.au
2
Outline

• APN project and GCTE/GCP
• Carbon Emissions
• Indonesia
• China
• Fire emissions
• Erosion and Riverine transport
• Future emissions
• Carbon Sinks
• Sink Mechanisms
• Forest sinks in Japan

3
APN Project Land Use Change and the Carbon
Cycle in Asia APN2000-02 Workshop Kobe,
January 2001
Commissioned Studies Land Use Change and Carbon
Cycle in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands of East and
Central Asia. Chuluun. Carbon Budgets of Forest
Ecosystems in Southeast Asia Following
Disturbance and Restoration. Lasco.
Support the development of two Research Proposals
for GEF-IPCC An Integrated Assessment of Climate
Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability in
Watershed areas and communities in Southeast
Asia. Lasco. Potential Impacts of Climate Change
and VA Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and
Livestock Sector in Mongolia. Chuluun.
APN-GCTE Special Journal Edition Land Use/Cover
Change Effects on the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in
the Asian Pacific Region Science in China, Life
Sciences Series C Editors Josep Canadell,
Guangsheng Zhou, Ian Noble
4
Carbon Emissions
5
Global Emissions from Land Use Change
Historically Total emissions of C deforestation
and fossil-fuel burning 450 PgC
1 Pg C 1,000,000,000,000,000 g C (a billion
tones)
From 1850 to 1990
90 due to deforestation 20 descrease Forest
Area
Houghton et al. 1999, Houghton 1999, Defries et
al. 1999, IPCC-TAR 2001
6
Net Annual Flux of Carbon from Changes in Land
Use
1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Annual Net Flux of Carbon (Pg)
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
1980 2000
Year
Houghton 1999 Houghton 2002 APN-GCTE Special
Issue, 2002
7
Annual C Emissions Tropical Asia and China
1850-2000
Houghton 2002 APN-GCTE Special Issue
8
Annual Flux of Carbon in Tropical Asia and China
1850-2000
Houghton 2002 APN-GCTE Special Issue
9
C Density of various land covers in Indonesia
Lasco 2002 APN-GCTE Special Issue and
Commissioned Study 2001
10
Forest Fires and Carbon Emissions
11
River Transport of Carbon in the Godavari Basin,
India
12
Land Covers and aCO2 in 2050 using IPCC-SRES
Agricultural Land
Forest Area
7000
6000
5000
B1
4000
A2
A1b
Total forest area (Mha)
A1b_fastmigration
3000
A1b_nonegfb
2000
1000
0
1970
1995
2020
2045
2070
2095
Year
CO2 Emissions 714 ppm 1009 ppm
35
30
25
20
Total CO2 emissions (Pg C/yr)
15
10
5
0
Scenarios material consumption (A)
sustainability and equity (B) 'globalisation
(1) regionalisation (2)
1970
1995
2020
2045
2070
2095
Year
Leemans 2002 APN-GCTE Special Issue
13
Carbon Sinks
14
Difference in Net Primary Production
1870-1990 Existing - undisturbed land cover
NPP loss
NPP gain
DeFries et al. 1989
15
Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks 1990s
Pg C/yr
IPCC 2001 Schimel 2001
16
Terrestrial Carbon Sources and Sinks 1990s
Pg C/yr
- 1.7
- 0.8
- 0.7
- 0.3
- 0.6
IPCC 2001 Schimel 2001
17
Current Terrestrial Sinks Potential Driving
Mechanisms

• CO2 fertilization
• Nitrogen fertilization
• Climate change
• Regrowth of previously harvested forests
• Reforestation / Afforestation
• Regrowth of previously disturbed forests
• Fire, wind, insects
• Fire suppression
• Decreased deforestation
• Improved agriculture
• Sediment burial
• Future Terrestrial Carbon Management (e.g.,
  Kyoto)

Canadell 2002 APN-GCTE Special Issue
18
Carbon Stocks in Live Forest Vegetation
1950-1995

• Forest Expansion
• Cropland abandonment
• Declining logging
• Reforestation

Goodale et al 2002
19
Changes in Forest Carbon in China 1949-1998
Between 1940s and 70s, C storage declined by
0.68 Pg C due to forest exploitation policies
From late 1970s to present, C storage has
increased by 0.4 Pg C due to policies of
protection and timber production 0.021 Pg
C/yr
Fang et al. 2001
20
Land Use Change and C loss in NE China 1992-2000
Decrease forest area 2.76?104km2 Increase urban
area 2.32?104km2 Potential max. loss of 273.2
Tg C
Wang 2002 APN-GCTE Special Issue
21
Net C Gain from Managed Forests in Japan
2000-2015
70-yr Rotation Sink 16 MtC/yr 4 FF emissions
Alexandrove Yamagata 2002 APN-GCTE Special
Issue
22
  Land use change and carbon cycle in arid and
semi-arid lands of east and central Asia -
Chuluun  Changes in annual fluxes of CO2 in
South Korea from 1990 to 1997 contributions of
energy consumption, land-use change, and forest
regrowth Dowon Carbon Emissions and Sinks
from and into Agro-Ecosystems Lind
Erda     Carbon balance along Northeast China
Transect (NECT-IGBP Transect). Guangsheng
Zhou    Carbon stock assessment for a
forest-to-coffee conversion landscape in
Sumber-Jaya (Lampung, Indonesia) from allometric
equations to land use change analysis. Meine van
Noordwijk. 
23
Hidden Deforestation Carbon Implications

• Forest Impoverishment
• Surface fires
• (could be responsible for doubling
• C emissions during El Nino years)
• Logging
• (4-7 of that of forest conversion)

Nepstad et al. 1999
24
Soil Carbon Responses to various Land Use Changes
Global - Meta-analyses of 71 studies
Guo and Gifford 2002
25
(No Transcript)
26
GCTE Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems
gcte.org