Innovation Dynamics: Industry

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InnovationDynamicsIndustry Technology
RoadmappingIAP 2003 1/21/03Joost
Bonsenjpbonsen_at_alum.mit.edu http//web.media.m
it.edu/jpbonsen/
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Technology Roadmapping (TRM)

• Tech-Industry-level of observation. analysis
• Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary
• Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum
• Viewing Business Implications Context of
  Technology trends
• Unifying, Big-Picture perspective
• Long-term view, futurecasting
• Neutral-ground for discussion among industry
  players MIT research sponsors
• Appealing to MBA, MEng, industrially-inclined
  PhD students through 15.795 TRM Research Seminar

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Technology Roadmapping

• Fall Semester 2002 Class Offering
• Emerging MIT Sloan research theme

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Generalizing Enriching Historic Technology
Demand Trends

• Historical Efforts
• Moores Law
• Electronic Devices
• Sematech Roadmap
• Disk Drives
• Ongoing
• Optical Networking
• Wireless
• Future
• New technologies

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Moores Law
Transistors per chip
109
?
108
107
106
105
104
103
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Source Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS
Centennial, Atlanta, 1999
Source Fine, MIT
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Roadmap for Electronic Devices
Number of chip components
1018
Classical Age
Quantum Age
1016
1014
1012
Quantum State Switch
SIA Roadmap
1010
108
Historical Trend
CMOS
106
104
102
101
100
10-1
10-2
10-3
Source Fine, MIT
Feature size (microns)
Horst D. Simon
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International Technology Roadmap for
Semiconductors 99
Year 2005 2008 2011 2014
Technology (nm) 100 70 50 35
DRAM chip area (mm2) 526 603 691 792
DRAM capacity (Gb) 8 64
MPU chip area (mm2) 622 713 817 937
MPU transistors (x109) 0.9 2.5 7.0 20.0
MPU Clock Rate (GHz) 3.5 6.0 10.0 13.5
Source Fine, MIT
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Disk Drive Development 1978-1991
Disk Drive Generation 14 8 5.25 3.5 2.5
Dominant Producer IBM Quantum Seagate Conner
Conner
Dominant Usage mainframe Mini-computer Desktop
PC Portable PC Notebook PC
Approx cost per Megabyte 750 100 30 7 2
From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density
increased by 60/year while semiconductor
density grew 50/year. Disk Drive cost per
megabyte in 1997 was .10
Source Fine, MIT
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Optical Networking


OC768
OC192
OC48
Capacity
OC12
Time
Source Fine, MIT
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Optical Technology Evolution Navigating the
Generations with an Immature Technology
1 2 3 4 5
Timeline Now Starting Starting 3-5 years 5-15 years
Stage Discrete Components Hybrid Integration Low-level monolithic integration Medium Monolithic integration High-level monolithic integration
Examples MUX/ DEMUX TX/RX module OADM TX/RX module OADM OADM, Transponder Switch Matrix Transponder
Core Techno-logies FBGs, Thin-film, fused fiber, mirrors Silicon Bench, Ceramic substrates Silica Silicon InP InP, ?? InP, ??
How many Functions? 1 2-5 2-5 5-10 10-XXX
Industry Structure Integrated Integrated/ Horizontal Integrated/ Horizontal

Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT Corning
Source Fine, MIT
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Supply Chain Volatility AmplificationThe
Bullwhip Effect
Retailer
Customer
Distributor
Factory
Equipment
Tier 1 Supplier
Information lags Delivery lags Over- and
underordering Misperceptions of
feedback Lumpiness in ordering Chain accumulations
SOLUTIONS Countercyclical Markets Countercyclical
Technologies Collaborative channel mgmt.
(Cincinnati Milacron Boeing)
Source Fine, MIT
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Supply Chain Volatility Amplification Machine
Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip
"Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain The
Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E.
Anderson, C. Fine G. Parker Production and
Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000,
pp. 239-261.
Source Fine, MIT
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What are TRM essentials?

• Performance indicators
• Innovations over time, trendlines
• Physical limitations
• Value Chains
• Industry Structure

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Benefits of MIT Tech Roadmapping

• Observing Value Chain Evolution over time
• Language for discussion between management
  technology world
• Structured basis for interaction Cross Value
  Chains, between academia industry, spanning
  basic research through application
• Bridging between vertical silos of research
  e.g. MicroPhotonics ? LIDS ? Media Lab ? eBiz
  Center
• Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps
• Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up
  (generally)

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Other Roadmapping Efforts

• ITRS International Technology Roadmapping for
  Semiconductors
• http//public.itrs.net/
• Electricity Technology Roadmap
• http//www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/roadma
  p/
• Steel Industry Technology Roadmap
• http//www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm
• Lighting Technology Roadmap
• http//www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/
• Robotics Intelligent Machines RM
• http//www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm

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Technology AND Industry Roadmaps

• Not just focus on technologies
• Which technology gets adopted is often determined
  at the Industry level
• How technology is adopted (or not) what are
  economic business issues

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TRM Industry-Benefits

• Economic context for technology decisions
  investments
• Lowering Risks for capital investments
• Not Stalins 5-year plans rather, coordination
  collaboration, co-optition

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Components of MITs Technology Roadmapping Effort
(are at Least)

1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems
   dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect)
2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous
   version of the double helix in Fines Clockspeed
   book)
3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize
   Porter-like analyses for players in the value
   chain)
4. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor
   Industry Association's roadmap built around
   Moore's law)
5. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National,
   Cross Sector

Source Fine, MIT
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TRM Value Chain vs Component Dynamics

Economic / Business Cycle Dynamics
Industry Structure Dynamics
Corporate Strategy Dynamics
Customer Preference Dynamics
Emerging Technology Dynamics
Regulatory / Policy Dynamics
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The Fine Helix
Source Carroll, Srikantiah Wolters 2000
Telecom.LFM769.Spr00.ppt
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Generalizing Quantifying Clockspeed

• Benefits to comparing between Industries
• Looking at Fast Industry Dynamics
• Cross-species Benchmarking
• Quantify Ultimately Model these Dynamics,
  improve theoretical understanding

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Different Degrees of Industry Aggregation

• Communications Roadmap
• Optical Communications
• MicroPhotonics
• Wireless
• Personal Area Networking
• Cellular G3, G4, G5
• Medical Imaging
• MRI
• Functional MRI
• Nanotechnology
• Precision Engineering
• AFM
• Biological Engineering
• Bacterial Robotics

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TRM Technology Domains(including, but not
limited to)

• Established
• Semiconductors
• Photonics
• Genomics / Proteomics / Celleomics
• Wireless
• MEMS
• Smart Materials

• Emerging
• Soft Lithography
• Neurotechnology
• Nanotechnology
• Organotechnology
• Biological Engineering
• Gerontechnology
• Autonomous Systems

MIT Emerging Technology Matrix http//web.media.m
it.edu/davet/notes/emerging-tech-mit.html
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MIT Strategic Technology Thrusts

1. Information Technologies Ever more
   sophisticated computation communication,
   leveraging mind media.
2. Biomedical Technologies Medical engineering,
   perfecting the health life sciences.
3. Tiny Technologies Investigating and fabricating
   ever smaller systems, at scales from micro thru
   nano
4. Complex Systems Large scale, socio-political
   econo-technological systems.
5. Developmental Innovations Appropriate and
   leapfrog technologies for tackling challenges in
   developing emerging regions

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Richly Interwoven MIT Themes
1. InfoTech
2. BioTech
3. TinyTech
4. Complex Systems
5. Developmental Innovations
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MIT Matrix
1. Info 2. Bio 3. Tiny 4. Complx 5. Developl
MIT Research LCS/AI, Media, eBiz, Mkting POPI, CBE, Whitehd, McGrn MTL, ISN, MicroPht, MPC CEEPR, Sloan, AGS Digital Nations, TDP, Globalization, MISTI
AcademicCourses 1, 6, 18, MAS HST, BE, 6, 7 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 16 SDM, 6, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 21 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 15, 17
Extra-curriculars MediaTech Bio-Strategy TinyTech Consulting SEID, ATF
MIT Alum Startups Akamai, DirctHit Amgen, Biogen Gentec Surface-Lgx, eink, Angstrm HP, Raytheon AfricaOnline, Evergreen Solar
http//web.media.mit.edu/jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Te
chnology-Matrix.htm
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http//web.media.mit.edu/jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Te
chnology-Matrix.htm
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Core Sloan Themes
Leadership
Innovation
Technology Entrepreneurship Strategy Dynamics
Effective Organizations, Culture-Crafting Entre-
Intra-preneurial Leadership
Transformative Innovations, Emerging Hard Soft
Technologies, Disruptive Challenges
Dynamic, Networked Organizations
Developmental Innovations, MicroFinance
Global Business Strategy, Accelerating
International Development
Global
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Unifying Strategic Themes
MIT Sloan
Global Development
Effective Leadership
Transformative Innovations
Finance, Accounting, Economics Managnt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral Policy Science Strat Orgns
Unifying Strategic Themes
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
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Classic Disciplinary Strengths
MIT Sloan
Global Development
Entrepreneurial Effectiveness
Transformative Innovations
Finance, Accounting, Economics Managnt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral Policy Science Strat Orgns
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
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MIT Sloan Capabilities
MIT Sloan Matrix
Global Development
Effective Leadership
Transformative Innovations
Finance, Accounting, Economics Managnt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral Policy Science Strat Orgns
Sloan Matrix
Unifying Strategic Themes
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
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Sloan Matrix
Global Development International Mgt Global Value Chains, TechMaps Entrepreneurial Policy
Effective Leadership Financial Engineering, Management Business Dynamics Tech-Biz Ventures
Transformative Innovations Virtual Customer Tech Strategy
Finance, Accounting, Economics Managnt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral Policy Science Strat Orgns
Unifying Strategic Themes
Venture Finance
Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths
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Mapping Sloan Faculty to MITs Emerging Strategic
Tech Sectors
1. Info Tech 2. Bio Tech 3. Tiny Tech 4. Compx Systems 5. Developt Innovations
Strategy
MTIE
Org/HR
Finance
Marketing
Operatns
Prod Dev
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Faculty Interests _at_ Levels of Analysis
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Economic Growth
Global Supply Chains
Global Strategy
Market Differentiation
Technology Roadmaps
Technology Strategy
Venture Capital
Business Dynamics
Entrepreneurial Culture
Valuing IP
Marketing- Engineering Links
Group Dynamics
Trader Psychology
Buyer Decision-Making
Inventor Ethos
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Levels x Discipline
Finance, Accounting, Economics Managnt Sci, Functional Disciplines Behavioral Policy Science Strat Orgns
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
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Research ClustersAt Various Levels of Analysis
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Technology Roadmap
Technology Venture Observatory
OpenSource Initiative
Virtual Customer Initiative
Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases
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Weaving together Interest Clusters at Various
Levels of Analysis
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Technology Roadmap
Technology Venture Observatory
OpenSource Initiative
Virtual Customer Initiative
Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases
ION
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Innovation ObservatoriesFurther Possibilities
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Technology Roadmap
Technology Venture Observatory
OpenSource Initiative
Virtual Customer Initiative
Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases
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Innovation ObservatoriesTechnology Roadmapping
Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual
Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation
Theme Idea
Technology Roadmapping
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http//mph-roadmap.mit.edu/
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Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium
eBusiness, Oxygen, Media Lab
LCS
LIDS, RLE
MPC, MTL
ITC
COMP- ONENTS
CONTENT APPLICS
MATERIALS PROCESS EQUIP
EQUIPMENT MAKERS
END USERS
SERVICE PROVIDERS
NETWORK OWNERS
DEVICES
Silicon Gaas InP Polymers Steppers Etchers MEMS Insertion Etc.. Lasers Amplifiers Transceiver Filters Processors Memorys Fiber ASICS MEMS DSPs Etc.. Routers Switches Hubs Base Stations Satellites Servers Software O/S Etc.. Wireless Backbone Metro Access Substations Satellites Broadcast Spectrum Communic Spectrum Etc.. Long distance Local Phone Cellular ISP Broadcast Hot Spots Cable TV Satellite TV VPNs MVNOs Etc.. Music Movies Email VoIP POTS Shopping ERP SCM, CRM Surveillance eBusiness Etc.. Computers Phones Media Players Cameras PDAs Weapons Etc..

• Business
• Consumer
• Govt
• Military
• Education
• Medical
• Etc..

Source Prof. C. Fine, MIT
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Why Value Tech Roadmapping?

• Trends -- Statement of historic performance
  improvement and extrapolations into future
• Consensus Shared opinion about likely future
  developments
• Commitment -- Shared willingness to pursue
  particular technologies
• Co-Investment -- Basis for agreement on
  pre-competitive research funding
• Understanding -- Method of understanding broader
  socio-economic context of broad technology trends

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15.795 Technology Roadmapping
(An example Masters Research Seminar)
Professor Charlie Fine, TA Joost Bonsen Fall
2002 This seminar will explore the purposes and
development of Technology Roadmaps for
systematically mapping out possible development
paths for various technological domains and the
industries that build on them. Data of
importance for such roadmaps include rates of
innovation, key bottlenecks, physical
limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate
intent, and value chain and industry
evolutionary paths. The course will build on
ongoing work on the MIT Communications
Technology Roadmap project, but will explore
other domains selected from Nanotechnology,
Bio-informatics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics,
Neurotechnology, Imaging Diagnostics, etc.
Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be
offered.
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TRM Class Goals

• Collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT
  researchers, Industry Sponsors
• Across MIT research areas
• Cross Industry Benchmarking
• Partnered with Industrial Sponsors
• Attract students passionate about technology
  sector, however broadly or narrowly defined
• Committed to producing coherent complete Tech
  Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester

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Engaging Masters Students in MIT Sloan Research
Agendae

• Business school disconnect
• Unfortunate and sub-optimal
• Were prototyping a new path
• Help show that it works!

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Seminars Conferences

• Part of 9 units is required attendance of
  relevant technology seminars throughout MIT.
• Find them through http//web.mit.edu Google so
  forth. Plus Word-of-Mouth.

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High TRM Student Expectations

• Serious commitment of time interest
• Literature review substantial interviews
• Attend talks seminar series in that tech
  sector, thats part of the course
• E.g. http//web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem-series.
  shtml
• Data gathering presentation smithing
• Crafting a draft PPT DOC by semesters end

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TRM Academia Speakers (and Labs to Engage)

• Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS
• http//www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/
• Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI
• http//hst.mit.edu/martinos/
• Bob Brown Alice Gast, MITs Research Directors
• Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech
• http//web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html
• Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics
• http//www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html
• Bob Langer, Biomaterials, Drug Delivery
• http//web.mit.edu/cheme/langerlab/langer.html
• Victor Zue Rod Brooks, LCS/AI Labs, Project
  Oxygen
• http//www.lcs.mit.edu/ http//www.ai.mit.edu/
  http//oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/
• Doug Lauffenberger, Biological Engineering
• http//web.mit.edu/be/
• E. Sachs, 3D Printing
• http//web.mit.edu/tdp/www/
• Neil Gershenfeld, Media Lab / Ctr Bits Atoms

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TRM Seeds Working Collaborations w/ MIT Labs
Sponsors

• Generalizing beyond MicroPhotonics Center
  Communication Roadmap
• Engaging Lab Directors as speakers in 15.795 TRM
  seminar
• Ask them to speculate about the important trends
  in their areas to proto-roadmap
• What would they like? What would their sponsors
  like?

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TRM Literature

• MicroPhotonics Center
• http//mph-roadmap.mit.edu
• Example Theses
• http//mitsloan.mit.edu/research/clockspeed/main.h
  tml
• References
• http//www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/

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Fin
Joost Bonsen jpbonsen_at_alum.mit.edu