Modeling Workgroup

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Modeling Workgroup
Charge Develop, implement, and evaluate
state-of-the-art numerical modeling systems for
the SE coastal ocean for process oriented
research and operational forecasting
applications. Members
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Sea Level Current meter comparisons
POM, ROMS, FVCOM hindcast comparisons with data.
BAROTROPIC BAROCLINIC
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LARVAL DISPERSAL STUDIES (CORAL REEFS, MPAs)
High-resolution models for estuary-shelf
interactions and hurricane storm surge
simulations.
2.6Km/day 2.0Km/day 1.8Km/day 0.8Km/day
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Nesting with basin-scale HYCOM NCOM models
Data assimilation statistical
adjoint CODAE planning HF radar-derived
surface currents Surface drifters Velocity
profilers from moorings T/S fields from profilers
and gliders
Focus on the Summer 2003 cool event for hindcast
case
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USF Modeling Progress/Plans
FVCOM for estuary- shelf interactions and
hurricane storm surge.
POM, ROMS, FVCOM hindcast comparisons with
data. ROMS over a larger domain for nesting in
HYCOM (or NCOM)
FY05 PLANS Hindcast reanalyses Nesting (HYCOM)
Data assimilation statistical adjoint
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• Summary to date
• WFS baroclinic hindcasts for process descriptions
  (using POM)
• WFS coupled phys./biol. models of primary
  productivity with J. Walsh
• Charlotte Harbor estuary applications (using
  ECOM3D-si)
• WFS hurricane storm surge simulations (using
  FVCOM)
• Tampa Bay under various scenarios
• Hurricane Charley simulation for Charlotte Harbor
• WFS baroclinic estuary-shelf interaction
  simulations (using FVCOM)
• WFS barotropic nowcast/forecast
• Larger, SEACOOS domain climatological monthly
  mean runs (using ROMS)
• Comparisons of WFS hindcasts against in-situ data
  (using POM, FVCOM, and ROMS)
• Year 4 plans
• Hindcast reanalyses with initial emphases on
  2001, a red-tide year.
• Nesting with HYCOM (and possibly NCOM)
• Implementation of data assimilation techniques
• Statistical
• Adjoint

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UM Modeling Progress/Plans
EFSIS
BAROTROPIC BAROCLINIC
GLOBAL NCOM
Drifter Trajectories Released At Selected Points
Sea Surface Heights And Vertically-averaged
Velocities

• YR3 PLANS
• Downscaling from GLOBAL NCOM to hi-res coastal
  strip
• Skill assessment
• - baroclinc model
• - synoptic forcing
• - tidal forcing
• - Lagrangian trajectories
• CODAE planning
• - HF radar-derived surface currents
• - surface and subsurface drifters
• - CTD and velocity profiles

LARVAL DISPERSAL from CORAL REEF
First 12h (solid line) Next 24h (dashed line)
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UNC Modeling Progress/Plans
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UNC Modeling Progress/Plans
Baroclinic cases (including temperature and
salinity effects) Coupling to
HYCOM/basin-scale solutions with regional Quoddy
model Focus on the Summer 2003 cool event for
hindcast case

• Drifter trajectories in the SAB
• Reduced difference between observed and modeled
  trajectories by
• inclusion of drifter characteristics, and
• melding of observed and modeled winds
• Difference is of the order of 1km/day, or 1cm/sec

Hindcasts for SEACOOS-wide response to
meteorological events in March 2001 Paper in
preparation for submittal