COG Institute for Regional Excellence The Washington Economy

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COG Institute for Regional ExcellenceThe
Washington Economy
John McClain, AICP Senior Fellow Center for
Regional Analysis George Mason University
September 25, 2003

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1790 Development of Economic Policy for the
Region
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PMSA Jobs and PopulationGrowth by Decade
000s
POP
JOBS
4
Jobs DC and Suburbs1950 - 2002
000s
5
Federal Government and Services Employment1950 -
2000
Per Cent
Services
Federal Govt
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Recent Headlines

• Never Ending Uncertainty Global Insight
  (3/03)
• Economy Stalls In January Washington Economic
  Index (3/03)
• Consumers Are On Hold But They Havent Hung Up
  Business Week (3/17/03)
• Winter Weather and War Fears Driving Economy
  Lower in February Washington Economic Index
  (3/03)

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Recent Headlines

• Economy Grew Only Slightly in 1st Quarter
  Wash Post (4/26/03)
• So Far, So Good Global Insight (4/03)
• Shoppers Spree Improves Outlook Post
  (4/12/03)
• Consumer Confidence Rebounds The Conference
  Board (4/29/03)
• Greenspan says Fed could cut rates again
  Finance (7/15/03)

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Economic Signals

• Consumer Confidence -1.4 pts
• Consumer Expectations up 8.1 pts
• Retail Sales 1.4
• New Home Sales -2.9
• Existing Home Sales 5.0
• Personal Income 0.2

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Economic Signals

• GDP
• 2002 2.4
• Q1 2003 1.4
• Q2 2003 3.1
• Productivity
• 2002 5.5
• Q1 2003 2.1
• Q2 2003 6.8
• Leading Indicators up 0.4 from June
• Unemployment 6.1 in Aug (6.2 July)
• Jobs -93,000 from July

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GDP/GRP Trends

Washington
U.S.
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Annual Rate of Change in Jobs (Establishment
Survey)USA 6 Years
THOUSANDS
Jan got to -260
Aug -560
Bottom 2029 Feb 02
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Annual Rate of Change in Employed (HH Survey)
USA 6 Years
THOUSANDS
Aug 842
Bottom 2004 Jan 02
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Annual Rate of Job ChangeWashington PMSA 5 Yrs
THOUSANDS
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Annual Rate of Change in Residents
EmployedWashington PMSA 5 Yrs
THOUSANDS
Thru Jul 2003
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Peak Unemployment Rates Washington Metro Area
and US
B.P. Spread 350 280 480 220
280
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Where Does Washington Rank?
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PMSA Annual Job Change 1980-2001
(000s)
Year
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Top Job MarketsJob Change Last 5 Years
Thousands
Washington Metro 316,100
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Jobs in Professional and Business Services2002
Thousands
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Jobs in Computer Systems Design and Related
Services2002
Thousands
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Jobs in Management, Scientific and Technical
Consulting Services2002
Thousands
NA
NA
NA
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Jobs in Scientific Research and Development
Services2002
Thousands
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
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Manufacturing Jobs 2002
Thousands
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PMSAThe Major SectorsTotal Jobs (000s) - 2002
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92-02 Job Change by Sector - PMSA (000s)
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92-02 Job Change by Sector DC (000s)
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92-02 Job Change by Sector Sub. MD
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92-02 Job Change by Sector No. VA
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Top Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate
Jul 2003
Percentage
U.S. 6.2
3.5
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Top Job MarketsJob Change 1999-2000(Annual Data)
Thousands
Washington 114
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Top Job MarketsJob Change 2000-2001(Annual Data)
Thousands
Washington 32
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Top Job MarketsJob Change 2001-2002(Annual Data)
Thousands
Washington 9
33
Top Job MarketsJob Change Jul 2002 - Jul
2003(Monthly Over-the Year Data)
Thousands
Washington 24,700
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Top Job Markets Ranked by Job Change Jul 2002
- Jul 2003(Monthly Over-the Year Data)
Percentage Change
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Annual Rate of Job ChangeWashington PMSA 5 Yrs
THOUSANDS
20-Yr Avg 55,000
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The Washington Regional Economy is Outperforming
Because

• The Federal Government Moderates National
  Business Cycles 32 of Regional Economy
• Federal Government Support of the Tech Sector
  Over 40 of Sales
• Federal Government is the Current Economic
  Stimulus via Procurement 14.9 Increase in 2002

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Total Federal SpendingWashington PMSA
BILLIONS
Avg Increase 3.7/yr
87.5
01-02 Increase 8.3 B
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Federal Procurement SpendingWashington PMSA
BILLIONS
Avg Increase 2.0/yr
36.1
01-02 Increase 4.7 B
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Of the 4.67 Billion Increase in Procurement to
Washington Companies from 2001-2003
BILLIONS
These 4 Agencies 98 of FY 02 Increase
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Top Ten Federal Contractors - 2002

• CSC/DynCorp 1,060 M
• SAIC 594
• Booz Allen 538
• EDS 529
• General Dynamics 417
• MCI 356
• Lockheed Martin 294
• Northrup Grum./TRW 278
• Raytheon 269
• Mitre Corp 266

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Of the 4.67 Billion Increase in Procurement to
Washington Companies from 2001-2003
BILLIONS
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92-02 Job Change by Sector - PMSA (000s)
Total 510,500
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July 01 July 03 Job Change by Sector - PMSA
(000s)
Total 39,400
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Washington Area Core Industries Outlook
(Annual real percent change, values in billions
of current year )
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GRP Trends By Sub-region (1996 )
5-Yr /Yr
Billions
4.06
Northern VA
3.63
Suburban MD
District of Columbia
1.35
PMSA Total
225.5 230.3 237.5 246.3
255.7 265.1
3.29
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Employment Change for the Washington Region
000s
79
75
66
38
11
36
45
22
42
Northern Virginia
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Employment Change by Substate Region (000s)
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(No Transcript)
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