Naval Smart Climatology

1
Naval Smart Climatology Data, Methods, Products,
Operational Implementation Tom Murphree,
Ph.D. Naval Postgraduate School
(NPS) murphree_at_nps.edu
Brief Presented at Smart Climatology
Meeting FNMOC, 06 February 2008
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
2

• Co-Authors
• Tom Murphree, NPS
• Mark LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF
• Adam Stepanek, Capt, USAF
• Damon Vorhees, Capt, USAF
• Joel Feldmeier, LCDR, USN
• Chris Hanson, Capt, USAF
• Sarah Moss, Capt, USAF
• David Meyer, (USN retired), NPS
• Katherine Twigg, Lt, Royal Navy, FNMOC
• Bob Tournay, Capt, USAF
• Christi Montgomery, LT, USN
• Allon Turek, LCDR, USN
• Bruce Ford (USN retired), Clear Science, Inc.
• Paul Frederickson, NPS
• Dave Smarsh, Col, USAF
• Karl Pfeiffer, Lt Col, USAF
• Chuck Wash, NPS
• Jeff Lerner, FNMOC

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
3
NPS Smart Climatology Program
The NPS Smart Climatology program has four main
components 1. Education 2.
Basic and Applied Research 3. Prototype
Operational Product Development 4.
Product Transitioning Materials for the NPS
Modern Climatology and Advanced
Climatology courses are available for downloading
at the course web sites. Contact Tom Murphree for
access (murphree_at_nps.edu). RD reports from 2000
to present are available at http//wx.met.nps.nav
y.mil/smart-climo/.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
4
NPS Smart Climatology Program

• The NPS Smart Climatology program precedes, and
  is not part of, the NRL RTP Smart Climatology
  project.
• The NPS program covers a wide range of smart
  climatology topics, from data sets, to climate
  prediction, to decision analyses.
• The NRL project is focused on testing one aspect
  of smart climatology --- generating high
  resolution, limited domain ocean reanalyses.

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
5
NPS Smart Climatology Program Reports
All reports available for downloading at NPS
Smart Climatology Reports http//wx.met.nps.navy.m
il/smart-climo/reports.php
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
6
Smart Climatology Recent Meetings

• DoD Climate Conference, 14WS / FNMOD, 06-08 Nov
  07
• Lessons learned from prior work
• AF and USN coordination and collaboration
• FNMOC-NPS Smart Climatology, 24 Jan 08
• Coordination and collaboration on FNMOD employee
  thesis research
• Likely focus on EM smart climatology
• Atmospheric Smart Climatology, CNMOC, 25 Jan 08
• Lessons learned from prior work
• Smart Climatology products for FY08
• Smart Climatology steering committee
• Smart Climatology at ASW/MIW Symposium, CNMOC, 29
  Jan 01 Feb 08
• Lessons learned from prior work
• Smart Climatology products for RIMPAC08, western
  North Pacific
• Smart Climatology Informal Talk with RDML (s)
  Titley, CNMOC, 30 Jan 08

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
7
Outline

• What is smart climo?
• How is smart climo different from traditional
  climo?
• Why is smart climo important to the military?
• Is there a requirement for smart climo?
• Who benefits from smart climo?
• Are there tactical level payoffs to doing smart
  climo?
• What does it take to do smart climo?
• How should CNMOC attempt to do smart climo?
• What partnerships are needed to do smart climo
  well?
• What are the key first steps in doing smart
  climo?
• What timeline should we set for doing smart
  climo?
• What funding and other resources will be needed
  to do smart climo?

Answers provided in this brief using primarily
atmospheric smart climatology examples.
Additional oceanic examples available in separate
briefs.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
8
What is Smart Climatology?

• Smart climatology State-of-the-science basic
  and applied climatology that directly supports
  DoD operations
• Smart climatology involves the use of
  state-of-the-science
• Data sets
• Data access visualization tools
• Statistical dynamical analysis
• Climate modeling
• Climate monitoring
• Climate prediction
• Climate scale decision analysis tools
• for risk assessment, mitigation, exploitation

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
9
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Evaporation Duct Heights
Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and
visualization tools to produce more detailed,
accurate, and operationally useful products.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
10
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Evaporation Duct Heights
Smart climo uses modern data sets, modeling, and
visualization tools to produce more detailed,
accurate, and operationally useful products.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
11
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Sea Surface Heights and Surface Currents
Smart climo uses existing civilian smart
climatology data sets to describe the many
atmospheric and oceanic variables that are not
represented in existing Navy climatologies (e.g.,
precip over ocean, deep convection, wind driven
mixing, ocean currents).
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
12
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Upper Ocean T
Smart Climatology
Existing Navy Climatology
Long term mean ocean T (C) for August for VS07
region from (a) smart climatology at 5 m and
(b) from GDEM at 4 m. Smart climatology
developed from existing civilian 47-year global
ocean reanalysis.
Smart climo uses state-of-the-science methods to
develop more accurate depictions of the
environment than available from traditional
methods used to create existing military
climatologies.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
13
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Long Term Fluctuations and Trends Surface T,
Iraq, Jul-Sep
Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution
of the climate system, and updates climate
statistics accordingly.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Advanced Climatology course project.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
14
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Long Term Fluctuations and Trends SST, East
China Sea, Jul-Sep
Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution
of the climate system, and updates climate
statistics accordingly.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Advanced Climatology course project.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
15
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Long Term Trends SST and RH, Pacific, Jan-Mar
Figures show average change per year in SST
(C/yr) and RH (/yr) during 1970-2006. Largest
changes correspond to a net change of 1.6 C in
SST (East China Sea) and 20 in RH (IO -
tropical Pacific) over last 37 years. These are
substantial changes that need to be accounted for
in providing METOC support (e.g., surface radar
range predictions).
Smart climo analyzes and monitors the evolution
of the climate system, and updates climate
statistics accordingly.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
tropical cyclone and electromagnetic smart
climatology research project.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
16
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Evaporation Duct Heights Climate Anomaly
Patterns
Smart Climatology
Traditional Climatology
Not available
Smart climo analyzes dominant modes of climate
variability, especially relatively predictable
variations, and accounts for those modes in
operational products.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
17
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Tropical Cyclone Activity Climate Anomaly
Patterns
Schematic representation of western North Pacific
TC formation sites, steering flow, and tracks
during El Nino and La Nina periods.
El Nino
Smart climo monitors and applies the results from
climate RD to improve long range planning
products.
La Nina
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by B. Ford, LCDR, USN.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
18
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Existing civilian smart climatology data sets
allow development of conditional climatologies
that account for operationally significant
deviations from long term means.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
19
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Short Term Climate Prediction, Korean Precip,
Jun-Sep
Low tropical precip (left) is a predictor of high
Korean precip (right) at leads of 5-20 days with
78 probability of detection. Reverse also holds
true. Dynamics involve Rossby wave trains along
subtropical jet.
Smart climo uses statistical and dynamical
analyses to assess and exploit predictability in
the climate system and to build climate
prediction systems.
Short term one week to one year
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by B. Tournay, Capt, USAF.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
20
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Long Lead Prediction of TC Genesis, Western North
Pacific
Analyses of climate scale relationships between
large scale environment and TCs leads to short
term climate predictions of TC activity.
Smart climo invests to develop climate prediction
systems.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer.
See details in notes section of this slide.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
21
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Smart Climatological Sensor Performance Products
Smart climatology uses advanced data sets and
impacts models to create climate scale sensor
performance products in formats that meet end
user needs.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
22
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
Smart Climatological Sensor Performance Products
Smart climatology puts state-of-the-science
planning products in the hands of METOC personnel
and end users.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by M. LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF.
Key 1. Cloud cover, 2. Precipitation, 3. Winds,
4. Temperature
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
23
How is Smart Climo Different from Traditional
Climo?
El Nino and La Nina Impacts on Military
Operations, Taiwan, October
Smart climatology puts state-of-the-science
planning products in the hands of METOC personnel
and end users.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Advanced Climatology course project
See details in notes section of this slide.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
24
Smart Climo Case Study Precip Extremes in
Southwest Asia
Heavy Precipitation and Flooding, Afghanistan
Pakistan, 1-15 Feb 2005

• Precip, temp, snowmelt, runoff anomalies had
  large operational impacts.
• Almost no DoD climo products available or
  suitable for explaining,
• monitoring, or forecasting these anomalies or
  operational impacts.
• Problem with DoD climo products even worse for
  ocean.

Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by D. Vorhees, Capt, USAF.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
25
Smart Climo Case Study Precip Extremes in
Southwest Asia
Mechanisms that Lead to Above Normal Precip and
Temp in SWA
Above Normal Precip and Temp
L
Below Normal Tropical Convection
H

• Typical low level anomaly pattern during above
  normal precip temp in SWA.
• Caused by climate variations and
  teleconnections (specific phases of El
• Nino/La Nina, Indian Ocean Zonal Mode,
  Madden-Julian Oscillation, and/or
• North Atlantic Oscillation).
• Climate variation reversal ? opposite anomalies
  in SWA.
• Climate variations predictable ? SWA precip and
  temp predictable
• Led to Climate monitoring indices and
  forecasting systems based on
• climate variation analyses.

Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by D. Vorhees, Capt, USAF.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
26
Smart Climo Case Study Precip Extremes in
Southwest Asia
Short Term Climate Prediction, Iraq Precip,
Oct-Dec
Analyses of climate scale relationships (left)
lead to short term climate predictions (right).
Hindcast for Oct-Dec 2002, during moderate El
Nino event, shows high (low) probability of above
(below) normal precip. Lead time six weeks.
Verifying observed precip was 28 above normal.
Conclusion from many such analyses and forecasts
Short term climate forecasts of T and precip in
Southwest Asia have useful skill, especially
compared to traditional climo.
Smart climo develops, tests, and makes climate
prediction systems operational.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by C. Hanson, Capt, USAF, and S.
Moss, Capt, USAF.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
27
Smart Climo Case Study Precip Extremes in
Southwest Asia
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by D. Vorhees, Capt, USAF.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
28
Smart Climo Emerging Directions Climate
Prediction
Short Term Climate Prediction, Tropical
Convection, North Pacific
Method for predicting TC formations is being
adapted for use in predicting tropical convection
(OLR in color inset). Also being adapted for
generating long lead predictions of TC
intensities and tracks.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
29
Smart Climo Emerging Directions TC Track
Prediction
Short Term Climate Prediction, TC Tracks, North
Pacific
Method for predicting TC formations being
adapted for use in predicting TC tracks.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR A. Turek.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
30
NPS Smart Climo Emerging Directions West Africa

• Climate variations in Africa are large and have
  large societal impacts and humanitarian crises.
• How should the US military plan for and respond
  to these climate variations and their societal
  impacts?

Information on the long term climate impacts
would enable HN engagement. Our scope is long
term, 6 months to 1 year out. HA/CA needs to be
long term to have a sustainable impact. CAPT
Ken Schwingshakl, CO, Maritime Civil Affairs
Group, October 2007
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by C. Montgomery, LT, USN.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
31
NPS Smart Climo Emerging Directions West Africa

• Initial Focus
• Implications of interannual variations in
  precip and surface T for DoD planning
• Coordination / collaboration with METOC
  organizations in Gulf of Guinea region

Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Advanced Climatology course project. And thesis
research by C. Montgomery, LT, USN.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
32
Smart Climatology Civilian-Military Comparison
Status determined by assessment of overall,
routine, operational climate support provided by
AF and Navy (e.g., AFCCC, FNMOD, FNMOC, NAVO,
OWSs, etc.), and by civilian organizations (e.g.,
NOAA, IRI, European agencies, industry, etc.).
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
33
Smart Climatology Civilian-Military Comparison
Status determined by assessment of overall,
routine, operational climate support provided by
AF and Navy (e.g., AFCCC, FNMOD, FNMOC, NAVO,
OWSs, etc.), and by civilian organizations (e.g.,
NOAA, IRI, European agencies, industry, etc.).
The military is behind the civilian sector. But
do we need to catch up? And if so, why?
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
34
Smart Climatology and Battlespace on Demand
Data and methods for generating smart climo
products at all three tiers already exist, as do
many prototype products.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Jan08
35
Smart Climatology and Battlespace on Demand
Use smart climatology to get the environment
right at long lead times.
Build smart climatological performance surfaces
for atmosphere and ocean.
Streamline by building on existing smart
climatology data, methods, and products.
Use smart climatology to develop long lead
decision aids (e.g., uncertainty assessments,
risk assessment, and guidance on risk management,
asset allocation, strategy, and tactics.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
36
Smart Climatology and Naval Oceanography
Enterprise
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
37

• First Principles
• Know the ground
• Fight on the ground of your choosing
• Own the windward gage

Create and Maintain an Information Advantage

• Smart climatology is critical to
• Knowing the ground well in advance
• Finding and keeping the windward gage well in
  advance

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
38
Smart Climatology METOC Applications

• Short range METOC applications of smart
  climatology
• Environmental SA for analysts and forecasters
• Deployment of METOC sensors (e.g., UAVs, gliders)
• QC-ing of observations
• Improved model ICs, BCs, parameterizations,
  nudging, bias correction, and skill assessment
  for products at all 3 tiers
• Long range METOC applications of smart
  climatology
• Development of climate scale products at all 3
  BonD tiers
• Assessment of long lead uncertainty
• Global climate change analyses
• Development of probabilistic marine mammal
  climatologies

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
39
Smart Climatology Customer Requirements
Applications

• General requirement. State-of-the-science METOC
  support, including climate support. If theres
  already a requirement for climate support, then
  theres a requirement for smart climatology
  (although it may be an unfunded requirement if
  not ranked as a high priority).
• Primary customers for smart climatology. All who
  need to plan at leads of a week or longer.
• Customer applications of smart climatology
• Environmental risk management and exploitation
• OPLAN and CONPLAN development
• Battlespace preparation
• War gaming
• Environmental aspects of RA
• SURTASS routing and ballasting
• Screen placement
• Marine mammal mitigation
• Exercise time and location
• Safety
• Training

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
40
(No Transcript)
41
Smart Climatology - Findings

• Smart climatology has the potential to
  substantially improve climate support for
  warfighters.
• The potential to make large improvements through
  short term climate prediction is especially high.
• Shortfalls in DoD smart climo mean that
  warfighters are not being given
  state-of-the-science climate support.
• We need a course correction ? We need to start
  providing smart climatological support.
• Smart climatology data sets, methods, tools, and
  prototype products are ready now to be
  transitioned to operational use.
• Smart climatology contributes to meeting several
  goals in COs guidance for 2008 (e.g., climate
  change, marine mammals, uncertainty, IUSS,
  warfighting focus, and workforce development
  goals).

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
42
Smart Climatology - Findings

• Smart climatology has the potential to
  substantially improve climate support for
  warfighters.
• The potential to make large improvements through
  short term climate prediction is especially high.
• However, smart climo is not being done by DoD.
• Thus, warfighters are not being given
  state-of-the-science climate support.
• We need a course correction ? We need to start
  providing smart climatological support.
• Smart climatology data sets, methods, tools, and
  prototype products are ready now to be
  transitioned to operational use.
• Smart climatology contributes to meeting several
  goals in COs guidance for 2008 (e.g., climate
  change, marine mammals, uncertainty, IUSS,
  warfighting focus, and workforce development
  goals).

Smart climatology can and should be integrated
with COs priorities for 2008 and beyond.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
43
Smart Climatology Recommendations to Leadership

• Make operational implementation of smart
  climatology a priority for Naval Oceanography
  Enterprise.
• Form a steering committee (RD and operational
  METOC experts, end users) to map out the way
  ahead.
• Be efficient. Build on existing resources,
  especially civilian climatology resources.
• Get off to a fast start Focus first on direct
  operational implementation of existing smart
  climatology data and methods. Emphasize upcoming
  high profile events (e.g., RIMPAC08, western
  North Pacific operations).
• Teach smart climo at all levels, and then give
  military and civilian analysts and forecasters
  the tools to do smart climo themselves. Dont
  leave smart climo up to just the climo RD
  experts.
• Take a joint Navy-Air Force approach. Consider
  creating a joint smart climatology reachback
  center.
• Provide funding.

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
44
Smart Climatology Operational Implementation
Transition status determined by assessing
availability of (1) substantial existing RD
prototype products and (2) operational products
in civilian sector. For all elements, there are
substantial products ready for transitioning, and
there are additional products for which some
level of additional RD is needed.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
45
Sample Smart Climo Prototype Product
Long Lead Prediction of TC Genesis, Western North
Pacific
Analyses of climate scale relationships between
large scale environment and TCs leads to short
term climate predictions of TC activity.
? Proposal Begin operational testing and
transitioning in FY08.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program
Based on NPS thesis research by LCDR D. Meyer.
See details in notes section of this slide.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
46
Sample Smart Climo Prototype Product
Smart Climatological Sensor Performance Products
Surface Radar Detection Ranges
Surface Radar Cutoff Frequencies
a
b
(a) Surface radar detection ranges (km) based on
NPS smart climatology for September. Values
shown are long term means for September, for a
C-band radar at 30 ft and detection threshold of
150 dB. (b) Cutoff frequencies (GHz) for surface
radar for September. Based on application of
existing civilian multi-decadal atmospheric and
oceanic reanalyses, and existing sensor
performance aids.
? Proposal Begin operational testing and
transitioning in FY08.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
thesis research by K. Twigg, Lt, RN.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
47
Smart Climatology Recent Meetings

• DoD Climate Conference, 14WS / FNMOD, 06-08 Nov
  07
• Lessons learned from prior work
• AF and USN coordination and collaboration
• FNMOC-NPS Smart Climatology, 24 Jan 08
• Coordination and collaboration on FNMOD employee
  thesis research
• Likely focus on EM smart climatology
• Atmospheric Smart Climatology, CNMOC, 25 Jan 08
• Lessons learned from prior work
• Smart Climatology products for FY08
• Smart Climatology steering committee
• Smart Climatology at ASW/MIW Symposium, CNMOC, 29
  Jan 01 Feb 08
• Lessons learned from prior work
• Smart Climatology products for RIMPAC08, western
  North Pacific
• Smart Climatology Informal Talk with RDML (s)
  Titley, CNMOC, 30 Jan 08

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
48
Smart Climatology - Recommended Directions

• Develop smart climatology data access, analysis,
  and visualization toolset for use in METOC
  production and support centers.
• Apply smart climatology methods to improve METOC
  analyses and forecasts, including
• climatological versions of Tier 1-3 products
• climatology based improvements in existing Tier
  1-3 products
• Conduct more in-depth and quantitative
  comparisons of civilian reanalysis data sets with
  Navy atmospheric, oceanic, EM, and acoustic
  climatologies. Assess potential of reanalyses
  and other smart climatology data and methods to
  improve Navy climatologies.
• Use operational analysis and modeling to evaluate
  ability of smart climatology to improve
  operational outcomes.
• Develop online learning center on smart
  climatology and its Navy applications.
• Create a smart climatology steering committee to
  help develop a coordinated and collaborative
  approach for improving military climatology.

The next three slides summarize six proposed
projects based on these recommended directions.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
49

• Smart Climatology - Project Proposal Summaries
• Smart Climatology Data Access, Analysis, and
  Visualization Toolset - Develop and deploy an
  unclassified, web-based, global smart climatology
  data access, analysis, and display application.
  Toolset will provide users with ability to
  access, analyze, and displays of 4-D (time and
  space) atmospheric, oceanic, EM, and acoustic
  variables based on reanalysis data sets, and
  variables derviable from those data sets.
  Toolset moduarized to allow expansion to other
  data sets (e.g., MODAS climatology, GDEM, full
  suite of atmospheric fields, other data sets
  under development). Goal Toolset that can
  rapidly generates graphical analyses and displays
  of a wide range of climatological information.
  Primary users analysts and forecasters.
• Smart Climatology Analyses and Forecasts -
  Develop smart climatology analyses and forecasts
  of basic atmospheric, oceanic, EM, and acoustic
  environment for RIMPAC 08 and other high priority
  cases (each case defined primarily by time of
  year, location, and types of operations).
  Includes analyses and forecasts based on major
  conditional climatologies. Goal
  state-of-the-science analyses and long lead
  forecasts geared for use by production center and
  mission support analysts and forecasters, and
  deploying forecasters.

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
50

• Smart Climatology - Project Proposal Summaries
• Smart Climatology Comparative Analyses - Develop
  in-depth, quantitative comparative analysis of
  atmospheric, oceanic, EM, and acoustic
  climatologies based on (a) smart climatology
  data and methods and (b) Navy climatologies.
  Include assessment of strengths and weaknesses of
  Navy climatologies, and recommendations for
  rapidly improving climatological support.
  Investigate several regions and times of year.
  Examine potential impacts of smart climatology on
  METOC product suite, and the product generation
  process. Goal Report that summarizes current
  status of climatological products and maps out
  and prioritizes options for improving products.
• Smart Climatology Operational Impacts - Develop
  initial assessments of the operational impacts of
  smart climatology using operational analysis and
  modeling. Emphasize impacts of smart climatology
  on operational planning at lead times of weeks to
  months and longer. Investigate several
  operational scenarios and types of support.
  Build on on-going operational analysis and
  modeling RD. Goal Report that assesses the
  potential for smart climatology methods and
  products to reduce uncertainty, assess and manage
  environmental risks, and improve operational
  decisions and outcomes.

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
51

• Smart Climatology - Project Proposal Summaries
• Smart Climatology Learning Center - Develop an
  online learning center for educating METOC
  personnel on smart climatology. Introduce users
  to smart climatology concepts, data sets, and
  analysis methods, and basic methods for
  developing smart climatology products. Teach
  state-of-the-science operational climatology of
  atmosphere and ocean in the context of military
  scenarios. Composed of self-paced, multimedia
  rich. Build on existing NPS climatology
  educational materials. Develop in coordination /
  collaboration with CNMOC PDC. Best developed in
  tandem with display application (project 1).
• Smart Climatology Steering Committee - Organize a
  smart climatology steering committee to advise
  METOC leadership on best options for improving
  climatological support. Potential members
  include Navy, AF, and civilian personnel from
  CNMOC, OPNAV/N84, FNMOC, FNMOD, AFCCC, AFWA, NPS,
  NRL, civilian operational climatology centers,
  and universities. Meet twice a year. Present
  biannual and annual briefs and reports to METOC
  leadership.

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
52
First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology
Proposed Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization
Tools

• User selections
• Data source
• Time period
• Location
• Basic variables
• Derived variables
• Display type (e.g., map, cross
• section, 3-D, time series)
• Analysis type (e.g., mulit-variable,
• composite, difference, correlation
• Conditional climatology constraints
• (e.g., high winds, high seas, low
• precip, EN, LN, MJO phase)
• Climate forecast (e.g., NAO, -IOZM,
• high TC formation probability)
• Operation type

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
53
First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology
Proposed Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization
Tools

• Sample Output Products
• Conditional climatologies
• for AOR
• Teleconnections to AOR
• Operational impacts
• assessments
• Mission planning tools

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
54
First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology
Proposed Data Access, Analysis, and Visualization
Tools

• Intended Users
• Mission planners
• Staff officers
• Forecasters
• Atmospheric and oceanic analysts and
  forecasters
• EM and acoustic analysts and forecasters
• METOC personnel involved in mission/exercise
  planning
• NPS students
• Researchers
• C-school instructors
• C-school students
• Estimated C-school class time required to train
  forecasters in effective use of smart climo
  interface 4-8 hours.

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
55
First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology
Smart Climatology Analysis and Forecasting Process
To implement smart climatology, METOC personnel
need hands-on education and training. Process
outlined here for providing smart climatological
support was developed and tested by Navy and AF
METOC officers and NPS faculty.
Results from NPS Smart Climatology Program NPS
Advanced Climatology course projects and thesis
research by M. LaJoie, Lt Col, USAF.
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
56
First Steps in Doing Smart Climatology
Smart Climatology Learning Center

• Develop online learning center for educating
  METOC personnel on smart climatology.
• Introduce users to smart climatology concepts,
  data sets, and analysis methods, and basic
  methods for developing smart climatology
  products.
• Teach state-of-the-science operational
  climatology of atmosphere and ocean in the
  context of military scenarios.
• Composed of self-paced, hands-on, multimedia
  rich, modules.
• Developed in coordination / collaboration with
  14WS and CNMOC PDC.
• Best developed in tandem with data access,
  analysis, and visualization application tool.
• Build on existing climatology educational
  materials from AFCCC/14WS, CNMOC PDC, NPS, COMET,
  etc.

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
57
Generating Smart Climatology Products
Apply smart climo data sets, and analysis and
prediction methods.
Less realistic Less expensive Easier to know at
long lead times
More realistic More expensive Harder to know at
long lead times

• Smart climo is relatively inexpensive, in part
  because it does not have to
• be repeated in full for every new operation.
• Smart climo can help focus, and help reduce the
  need for, and costs of
• collecting and assimilating, near real time
  observations.

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
58
Generating Smart Climatology Products

• Proposal --- Based on NPS Climate Support Process
  
• Well before mission planning begins, develop
  background smart climo products using smart climo
  data and methods .
• When mission planning begins, assess the current
  state of climate system. If indicated by current
  state, develop updated smart climo products by
  using smart climo data and methods to adjust
  pre-planning smart climo.
• Assimilate near real time observations (remote
  and in situ) into planning smart climo, according
  to resource availability and operational
  priorities.

• See NPS Smart Climatology site, especially
  LaJoie (2006), at http//wx.met.nps.navy.mil/smar
  t-climo/
• Examples of Smart Climo Data and Methods
• Application of reanalysis and other advanced data
  sets
• Statistical and dynamical analyses of data
• Statistical and dynamical climate modeling
• Climate system monitoring
• Statistical and dynamical climate forecasting

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
59
Outline

• What is smart climo?
• How is smart climo different from traditional
  climo?
• Why is smart climo important to the military?
• Is there a requirement for smart climo?
• Who benefits from smart climo?
• Are there tactical level payoffs to doing smart
  climo?
• What does it take to do smart climo?
• How should DoD attempt to do smart climo?
• What partnerships are needed to do smart climo
  well?
• What are the key first steps in doing smart
  climo?
• What timeline should we set for doing smart
  climo?
• What funding and other resources will be needed
  to do smart climo?

Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
60
Contact Information
Tom Murphree, Ph.D. Department of
Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School 254 Root
Hall 589 Dyer Road Monterey, CA
93943-5114 831-656-2723  commercial 312-756-2723 
DSN 831-241-0561 cell 831-656-3061 
fax murphree_at_nps.edu murphrjt_at_nps.navy.smil.mil
Smart Climatology http//wx.met.nps.navy.mil/sma
rt-climo/reports.php METOC Metrics
http//wx.met.nps.navy.mil/metrics/metrics_reports
.html
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
61
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
62
Smart Climatology Backup and Background Reading
Slides
Smart Climo, murphree_at_nps.edu, Feb08
63

• Smart Climatology Key Concepts
• Smart climo is the application of
  state-of-the-science climatology to supporting
  DoD operations.
• State-of-the-science climatology is routinely and
  successfully used by civilian operational climate
  centers in the U.S., Europe, and many other
  countries to support civilian operations.
• Prior studies have shown that climo support
  provided by DoD is well below the level of the
  state-of-the-science support provided by civilian
  operational climo centers.
• The big shortcomings in DoD climo stem form the
  failure to keep up with modern data sets and
  modern analysis and forecasting methods.
• Compared to the climo products that are available
  in the civilian realm, many DoD climo products
  are very inadequate and out of date, or simply do
  not exist (e.g., subsurface ocean currents are
  available in the civilian climos but not in the
  Navy climos).
• Studies by NPS have shown that smart climo has a
  very high potential to significantly improve
  METOC support to warfighters.

Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree_at_nps.edu
64

• Smart Climatology Key Concepts
• The improvements in METOC support provided by
  smart climo would occur at all planning levels,
  from strategic to tactical. The tactical
  benefits would come from the large role climo
  plays in developing short range forecasts (e.g.,
  short range model parameterizations, ICs, BCs,
  nudging, model selection, model evaluation).
  Tactical benefits also would come from helping
  warfighters avoid the need to deal with short
  range environmental problems. Smart climo can
  help planners select times, locations, routes,
  pre-positioning of personnel and equipment, and
  tactics that minimize the risk of short term
  problems of operation (e.g., determining route
  for carrier group to minimize risk of low
  cig/vis determining best locations to
  pre-position heavy equipment).
• Smart climo involves accounting for climate
  variations (e.g., El Nino high wind regimes over
  the ocean long term trends etc). But there is
  much more to smart climo than that. One of the
  first steps in doing smart climo is to work with
  state-of-the-science data to create
  state-of-the-science long term means. Then move
  on to analyzing and forecasting the impacts of
  climate variations.
• NPS studies have also shown that much of the
  improvement in climo support could happen quickly
  and at relatively little cost, by leveraging off
  of existing and freely available civilian data
  sets, methods, and applications.
• Providing routine smart climo support can be a
  complex process (as is the case for all other
  types of state-of-the-science METOC support). We
  need to develop appropriate ways to deal with
  this complexity in METOC education and training
  (as we have for other types of METOC support).

Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree_at_nps.edu
65

• Smart Climatology Key Concepts
• Most METOC personnel need to understand the
  basics of climatology, because climo is
  fundamental for all types of METOC analysis and
  forecasting.
• Analyzing and forecasting the large scale, low
  frequency variations of the environment are the
  first steps in analyzing and forecasting the
  smaller and shorter term variations. Thus, in
  any forecast process, the first step should be to
  assess the state of the climate system. For
  example, in doing an extratropical synoptic
  weather forecast, start by looking at the
  extratropical longwave pattern, a key feature of
  extratropical climate.
• Some uniformed personnel need to be experts in
  climo, especially the operational applications of
  smart atmospheric and oceanic climo (and,
  ideally, smart land and space climo too). These
  experts need to be supported by DoD civilian
  climo experts.
• Smart climo support fits well into the hub,
  production center, and reachback cell concepts.
  The military and civilian staffs at these centers
  should include at least one climo expert per
  center.
• The uniformed and civilian climo experts need to
  be given routine professional development
  opportunities so that they can keep up with the
  state of the science (e.g., opportunities to take
  short courses, attend and present at civilian
  conferences, participate in DoD climo workshops,
  etc.).

Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree_at_nps.edu
66

• Smart Climatology Key Concepts
• The METOC climo experts need to be responsible
  for ensuring that DoD climo support also keeps up
  with the times (e.g., by taking on leadership
  roles in identifying critical new methods for
  improving climo support and helping to ensure
  that necessary RD is funded and operationally
  implemented.
• Modern climatology might be a better term than
  smart climatology, since it probably conveys more
  clearly what we are talking about doing without
  antagonizing as many people as smart climatology
  seems to do. However, smart climatology is a
  term CAPT Titley helped put into the METOC
  vocabulary, and it has become a pretty common
  term in METOC circles.
• Ideally, we will one day speak just of
  climatology, with no modifiers like smart or
  modern. We do not speak of smart or modern
  meteorology or oceanography, because we just
  assume that Navy meteorology and oceanography
  should be and are smart, modern, and
  state-of-the-art. Once we can safely make that
  assumption about Navy climatology, we can drop
  the modifiers.

Smart Climo ET, Oct 07, murphree_at_nps.edu
67
(No Transcript)
68
(No Transcript)
69
(No Transcript)
70
(No Transcript)
71
(No Transcript)
72
(No Transcript)
73
(No Transcript)
74
(No Transcript)
75
(No Transcript)
76
(No Transcript)
77
(No Transcript)
78
Smart Climo and Regime Based Forecasting Smart
climo gives you a better insight into the large
scale (continental scale to global scale)
patterns and processes that, to a large extent,
govern the development of the regimes.  Climate
dynamics governs the uppermost portion of the
forecast funnel.  So, you can do a better job of
analyzing and forecasting synoptic and mesoscale
circulations when you understand the low
frequency, large scale dynamics that are the
subject of climate dynamics.  For example, when
you understand the tropical climate variations
that excite changes in the extratropical Rossby
wave field, that in turn lead to changes
in extratropical long wave patterns, that then
alter synoptic and mesoscale circulations and
regimes.    A smart climo approach could
contribute a fair bit to improving regime based
forecasting methods.  Many climate variations
have well established regimes of their own (often
described in terms of teleconnections patterns
and processes) that climate-oriented weather
forecasters already use in developing medium
range forecasts.  NWS extended range forecast
discussions based on EN, LN, and MJO are one
example of this.  Many climate variations have
known tendencies to make certain medium range and
synoptic patterns more or less likely (e.g.,
tendencies to develop high zonal index flows,
blocking patterns, persistent warm moist
advection, etc.).  
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jan 07
79
Smart Climo and Regime Based Forecasting The
mechanisms by which climate variations set up
these patterns is often an alteration of the
upper tropospheric long wave pattern (shifts in
location, changes in wave length and amplitude,
etc.), changes in the low level eddies and
circulation (e.g., Siberian High, Aleutian Low,
Azores High), and associated low level WAA, CAA,
moisture advection, moisture convergence, etc. 
The Stepanek and Vorhee's theses provide some
nice tropical and extratropical examples of
this.  The connection between synoptic and
climate processes is also a two-way street (e.g.,
EN affects the intensity and recurvature
of tropical cyclones in the NW Pac, which leads
to anomalies in the extratropical long wave
pattern over the N America, which alters synoptic
systems there).  
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jan 07
80
Smart Climo and Regime Based Forecasting There
are a variety of smart climo based tools that
could be used to improve how regime concepts are
used in forecasting.  Compositing and principal
components could be used to identify the major
regime signals associated with climate variations
(including their relative amplitudes and
phasing).  Here, by regime signal, I mean the
regimes that are forced by and characteristic of
a given climate variations, and the fluctuations
of regimes that are separate from but affected by
the climate variations.  By climate variation,
I'm thinking of phenomena such as EN, LN, IOZM,
MJO, NAO, but also of simpler, more generic
variations such as changes in the zonal index of
the extratropical upper tropospheric
flow.   Cluster analysis could be used to
identify the most probable sequencing of the
major regime signals (see Jeff's discussion of
solutions A, B, and C, below).  A variety of
other tools could be used to identify the
relationships between a given regime and a larger
scale variation, and the predictability of the
regime given the existence of the variation.  
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jan 07
81
Present State of DoD Climatology

• Typical development of DoD climo products
  excludes many modern data sets and methods of
  climate analysis and forecasting.
• Most DoD climatology products fail to account for
  advances in climate science and operational
  climatology during the last 30 years, including
• data sets
• data analysis
• modeling
• monitoring
• forecasting
• This lag in DoD climatology has created
  significant gaps in climatological support for
  war fighters.
• Course correction Start applying smart
  climatology State-of-the-science basic and
  applied climatology that directly supports DoD
  operations

Smart Climo 2, murphree_at_nps.edu, Nov07
82
(No Transcript)
83
NPS Smart Climatology Research Development
Climatological Environmental Assessment and
Performance Surfaces

• Methods and Results
• Used smart climatology data and methods to
  improve long term mean climatologies of
  evaporation duct heights (EDH) and radar
  propagation in the Indian Ocean and nearby seas.
• Analyzed impacts of seasonal changes climate
  variations (e.g., ENLN, IOZM) on EDH surface
  radar propagation.
• Results (a) new smart EDH climatology with
  substantial improvements over existing Navy
  climatology (b) identified major spatial and
  temporal changes in EDH, including those caused
  by climate variations (c) determined which
  factors EDH and surface radar propagation are
  most sensitive to for different regions and
  seasons (d) found potential for forecasting EDH
  and surface radar propagation at weekly to
  monthly lead times.
• Products (a) smart climatological environmental
  assessment surfaces for EDH and EDH factors and
  (b) smart climatological performance surfaces for
  surface radar propagation (range, CoF) both for
  varying climate scenarios.
• The methods used in this work are directly
  applicable to developing smart climatologies for
  other regions, and for other EM and acoustic
  propagation phenomena.

From NPS thesis research by Lt Katherine Twigg,
Royal Navy, 2007
ASW Smart Climo, Aug 07, murphree_at_nps.edu
84
(No Transcript)
85
(No Transcript)
86
LTM Temperature Profiles, August, From Reanalyses
ASW Smart Climo, Aug 07, murphree_at_nps.edu
86
From SODA oceanic reanalysis
87
Note Near surface temperatures observed during
VSO7 were, in general, 0.5oC warmer than the
long term mean reanalysis temperatures, and
0.5-1.0oC warmer than the GDEM temperatures.
The warmer waters appears to have been part of
the 2007-08 La Nina event that was developing
during August 2007.
88
(No Transcript)
89
Preliminary Findings Smart Climatology and VS07

• Overall T and S patterns in oceanic climatologies
  based on existing civilian reanalyses are similar
  to those in Navy climatologies.
• But there are some surprisingly large differences
  in near-surface T magnitudes (GDEM cooler) that
  may be due to efforts during development of GDEM
  to accentuate mixed layer (e.g., avoid rounded
  off upper ocean T profiles).
• GDEM has considerable small scale structure
  (e.g., bulls eyes, patchy patterns) that may be
  an artifact of the statistical processes used to
  fill in data gaps.
• Some Navy marine atmospheric climatologies
  provide very poor representations of well known
  features of the lower tropospheric circulation
  (e.g., monsoon trough) that are important in
  atmospheric forcing of upper ocean.
• Overall accuracy of climatologies based on
  existing civilian reanalyses appears to be equal
  to or greater than that of Navy climatologies.
• A complete comparative assessment is difficult
  because Navy climatologies do not provide a
  number of important variables that are available
  in reanalyses (e.g., SSH, currents,
  precipitation, estimates of deep convection).

See notes section of this slide for more
details.
ASW Smart Climo, Aug 07, murphree_at_nps.edu
90
(No Transcript)
91
(No Transcript)
92
(No Transcript)
93
(No Transcript)
94
(No Transcript)
95
(No Transcript)
96
(No Transcript)
97
(No Transcript)
98
(No Transcript)
99
(No Transcript)
100
Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products
in Mission Planning Process

• Scenario In the event of heightened tensions
  with North Korea, a squadron of F-15s from
  Elmendorf AFB, AK will need to deploy on short
  notice to Gwangju AB, ROK. Their refueling
  aircraft will be a pair of KC-10s from Travis
  AFB, CA. The expected launch window is July.
  The fighters will have to refuel 7 times en route
  and must avoid areas of solid cloud and moderate
  or greater turbulence.
• Task Provide climatological support for mission
  planning.

Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jan 07
Slide from NPS climatology course
101
Climatological Impacts on F-15 Squadron
Deployment Over North Pacific in July
Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products
in Mission Planning Process
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jan 07
Slide from NPS climatology course

• Launch / Divert Bases
• Thunderstorms, lightning, low ceilings likely at
  Elmendorf AFB
• Fog/stratus along coast likely to inhibit morning
  tanker take-offs from Travis AFB, CA, diverts on
  US west coast
• Air Refueling
• Clouds likely to impede refueling along storm
  track
• Winds much weaker at flight level, thus
  decreasing turbulence risk

102
Use of Downscaled Mesoscale Climo Products
in Mission Planning Process
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jan 07
Slide from NPS climatology course
Climatological Impacts on ISR Operations Over
Korean Peninsula in July

• Key climatological factors for Korea in July (see
  accompanying maps of SLP, Z850, chi, OLR,
• clouds, and precipitation)
• Low level low over China, high over North Pacific
• Warm moist inflow from the south along boundary
  between low and high

Reference for METOC Criteria JP 3-59. Joint
Doctrine, Tactics, Techniques, and Procedure for
Meteorological and Oceanographic Support. 23 Mar.
1999.
103
(No Transcript)
104
(No Transcript)
105
Team Project Report
Slide from NPS climatology course
Thresholds based on AFWA/TN-98/002 Revised 13
June 2003
Smart Climo, Murphree_at_nps.edu, Jan 07