Baccalaureate Enrollment Growth and Capacity SBCTC and COP Project

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Baccalaureate Enrollment Growth and
CapacitySBCTC and COP Project

• House Higher Education Committee
• January 20, 2005

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Agenda

• Context, enrollment only
• Demand to 2010 maintenance level and policy
  increases
• Plans to meet demand
• Features of options location, cost, students
  served
• Conclusions to date
• Next steps

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Universities and CTCs Share Baccalaureate Mission

• Shared mission
• CTCs are start for more than 40 of graduates
• Public universities award 3 out of 4 bachelors
  degrees
• Public higher education primary providers

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Future Enrollment Plans to 2010
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Basis of Joint Forecast

• Maintains market share by sector, including
  private universities
• Keeps pace with population growth
• Addresses existing access gaps regions and
  types of students currently underserved

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FTE Demand by Type to 2010

• Population driven
• Maintain opportunity as population grows
• Policy driven
• Pathways for technical associate degree grads
• Low regional access
• ¾ of demand at junior/senior level
• Consistent with OFM, HECB Master Plan

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If CTC and University Plans are Funded
Enrollment and Demand Match - to 2010

• Meets 78 of demand

- Southwest, Snohomish - Technical degree
pathways
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Some Pathways to Consider to Meet Demand

• Public baccalaureate institutions
• University branch campuses
• Collocated university centers
• CTC bachelors degrees

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Location Matters

• Regional differences in access
• 60 of university freshmen attend outside home
  region
• 60 of CTC transfers attend university close to
  home

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Pathways Serve Different Students

• Broader spectrum of population served through
  transfer pathway
• Two-thirds of transfer students first in families
  to go to earn bachelors degrees
• More African American, Native American and Latino
  students use transfer path
• More older students use transfer, especially at
  University Centers and University branch campuses

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Fiscal Considerations for Baccalaureate Pathways

• Comparison based on recent legislative
  appropriations for growth FTEs
• Current pathways
• 20,100 to 24,000 over four years
• Range is narrow except for branch campuses
• Examining costs for new pathways

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Costs Vary More Widely for Students

• Used 2005 tuition rates
• Wider range in cost to students
• 10,900 CTC transfer to regional university
• 18,100 4 years at research university
• Diversity of choices useful from affordability
  perspective
• Operating fee only

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Conclusions

• Working together we can best meet the future
  growth needed for the common baccalaureate
  mission
• 18,600 baccalaureate demand by 2010 based on
  population growth, technical transfer, low
  regional access
• Forecast consistent with OFM projections and
  goals of HECB Master Plan
• Strong demand for junior access

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Conclusions

• Meeting the demand requires growth in all
  pathways to the baccalaureate
• Build on current infrastructure
  baccalaureates, branch campuses, university
  centers, CTCs
• More than ¾ of 2010 projected demand met IF
  enrollment requests are funded

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Conclusions

• Location matters, especially for transfer
  students
• Serving the diversity of students requires
  diversity of pathways to the bachelors degree
• University Centers are an effective way to
  distribute access across the state
• CTCs - CTC bachelors degrees are feasible option

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Topics for Further Work

• Strategies to address regional gaps
• Incentives and disincentives to achieve
  strategies
• Work with universities to expand university
  centers and pilot CTC applied bachelors degrees
• Costs for new pathways and strategies
• Identify program needs
• Regional program planning called for in HECB
  Master Plan