The Future of the HVAC&R Industry

1
The Future of the HVACR Industry

• Richard B. Hayter
• Kansas State University
• Sheila J. Hayter
• U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory
• Paper 134, Topic 5.4

www.clima2005.ch
2
A Perspective on the Future
No sensible decision can be made any longer
without taking into account not only the world as
it is but the world as it will be. Isaac Asimov
3
A Perspective on the Future

• A world population of 6B, increasing to perhaps
  10B by 2050
• Rising expectations of developing countries
• Escalating demand on (finite) resources
• Political and economic instability
• Preservation of the environment
• Jim Schultz
• CLIMA 2001

4
A Perspective on the Future

• Building envelopes that serve a dual role as the
  building electrical power source
• Power sources within the building (micro
  turbines, fuel cells)
• Refrigerant free, energy efficient refrigeration
  and space cooling equipment
• R. B. Hayter

5
Overview

• Learning from the past
• The HVACR Market
• Influences on HVACR Applications
• Looking Ahead

6
Learning from the Past

• In the past, buildings in warm climates had
  operable windows with awnings for shade, high
  ceilings and portable fans.

7
Learning from the Past

• The U.S. National Academy of Engineering selected
  air-conditioning and refrigeration as one of the
  Greatest Engineering Achievements of the 20th
  Century.
• Since 1940 eight of the 10 fastest growing cities
  in the U.S. are in the southern part of the
  country.
• Today, in excess of 55 of the entire U.S.
  housing stock has central air-conditioning and
  75 of all newly constructed homes have central
  air-conditioning.

8
The HVAC Market
Courtesy ARI
9
The HVAC Market

• 33,297 CFC chillers still remain in use in the
  US.
• Replacement chillers are at least 40 more
  efficient than those installed 40 years ago.
• CO2 production has been reduced by 4 million
  tons/year as a result of chiller replacement.

10
The HVAC Market
Shipment-Weighted Seasonal Energy Efficiency
Ratios of Unitary Air-Conditioners (Less than
65,000 BTUH) Courtesy ARI
11
Influences on HVACR Applications

• The solutions to infrastructure problems are
  probably 5 technical and 95 social, political,
  environmental and economic.
• U.S. National Science Foundation Civil
  Infrastructure Systems Task Force.

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Influences on HVACR Applications

• Energy
• Environment
• Human Factors
• Political
• Societal
• Communication

13
Influences on HVACR Applications

• Energy
• The U.S. residential and commercial sectors
  account for 40 of the total energy consumed in
  the country.
• 41 of all electricity consumed in commercial
  buildings is for comfort cooling, ventilation and
  refrigeration.
• Consumers are demanding sustainable building
  design, construction and operation are key.

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Influences on HVACR Applications

• Environment
• If every centrifugal chiller had an efficacy of
  0.48 kW/Ton vs. 0.56, annual plant emissions
  would be reduced by
• Nearly 17 billion pounds of C02
• Over 64 billion grams of SO2
• Over 27 billion grams of Nox
• Which is equivalent to
• Removing over 2 X 106 cars from the road
• Planting nearly 500 X 106 trees each year.
• Jim Wolf
• ASHRAE Presidential Member

15
Influences on HVACR Applications

• Human Factors
• Employee cost per unit area of an office
  building in the U.S. is 100 times that of the
  operating cost of the building.
• Jeopardizing employee performance because of
  poor control of the indoor environment could be a
  major cost to employer.

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Influences on HVACR Applications

• 4. Political
• Public policy affecting building design,
  construction and operation must be based on solid
  technical principles, not politically based
  restrictions.
• System design and performance standards must be
  uniform throughout the globe and be based on
  technology rather than market protection.

17
Influences on HVACR Applications

• Societal
• The consumer is demanding that buildings be
• sustainable
• safe
• free from harmful contaminants
• structurally sound
• safe from acts of violence

18
Influences on HVACR Applications

• Communication
• The internet gives us a flat world. It allows
  us to
• Share educational programs,
• Relay and discuss research results and
• Create global design teams independent of
  location.
• Information available on the Web may not have
  undergone the scrutiny of peer review.

19
Looking Ahead

• Equipment and Systems
• Improvements in compressor modulation
• Cost effective expansion recovery systems
• Reliable, oil-less drives
• Improvements in refrigerant heat exchanger
  performance
• Jim Schultz
• CLIMA 2001

20
Looking Ahead

• 1. Equipment and Systems Continued
• Increased use of radiant cooling
• Expanded use on individual climate control
• Natural and displacement ventilation
• More applications of refrigerant free cooling
• R.B. Hayter

21
Looking Ahead

• Refrigerants
• Development of new, environmentally benign
  refrigerant blends
• Increased use of natural, flammable and explosive
  refrigerants in systems that are safe and that
  have an acceptable COP.

22
Looking Ahead

• Controllers
• Building automation will migrate from central
  control to the equipment level.
• Wireless controllers will give greater
  flexibility.
• Point control applications will increase.
• Internet based control will expand.
• Systems will be less susceptible to power quality
  anomalies.

23
Looking Ahead

• Human Factors
• Use of multivariate controllers will increase.
• The understanding about effects of air quality
  will increase as will our ability to control it.
  
• Demand for acoustic control will increase
• The effect of the indoor environment on
  productivity will be quantified.

24
Looking Ahead

• Specialty Environments
• Individual control of environments within the
  personal space will increase.
• Preservation of food and environmental control of
  food animal confinement housing will increase.
• The demands by the manufacturing sector for
  precise environmental control will increase.

25
Looking Ahead

• Design Team

26
Conclusion

• Vision without action is merely a dream and
  action without vision just passes the time, but
  vision with action can change the world.
• Joel Barker