Title: Company Presentation
1Introduction to Macro and Micro Economics
Dr. Khaled Fouad Sherif Chief Financial
Officer The World Bank Group
2What is Economics?
- The social science that studies how agents
allocate scarce resources amongst alternatives to
meet unlimited human wants - Fundamental Economic Problem Resource allocation
- Conflicting goals of unlimited wants and resource
scarcity implies need to make choices regarding
allocation - Three basic questions
- What and how much to produce
- How to produce
- How to distribute goods and services amongst
individuals and groups
3Approaches to Economics
- Positive Economics
- Examines how decisions are made and the
consequences of such decisions - Descriptive process exploring the process of
decision making and its impacts - Normative Economics
- Examines how resources should be allocated
- Prescriptive process analyzing what should be done
4Allocation of Resources
- Process occurs at many levels
- Consumers
- Firms
- Government
- Market System
- Allocation decisions impact natural environment
- Want decisions to be based upon incentives that
reflect true value to society - Unfortunately decision makers due not consider
true value in choices - Need for policy intervention to overcome such
market failure
5Contemporary (Neoclassical) Economics
- Macroeconomics Aggregated analysis
- John Maynard Keynes in 1936 and 1940
- Choices of government
- Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve
- Fiscal Policy Taxes and Spending
- Macroeconomic targets
- Income Levels
- Inflation
- Employment
6Contemporary (Neoclassical) Economics
- Microeconomics Disaggregated analysis
- Adam Smiths Wealth of Nations in 1776
- Choices of consumers (households) and producers
(firms) - Two types of Markets
- Factor Markets Consumers sell inputs used in
production to firms - Product Markets Firms sell final output to
consumers - Three types of analysis
- Partial Equilibrium Focus on single factor or
good - Multi-Market Interrelationships amongst key
fundamental markets - General Equilibrium Economy as a whole
7Basic Economic Model (Paradigm)
- Households provide factors of production to firms
- Capital, Labor, Natural Resources, and
Entrepreneurship - Firms make payments for factors of production to
households - Interest, Wages, Rents, Profits
- Households demand (purchase) goods and services
from firms - Firms produce goods and services by transforming
inputs into output - Firms receive payments for goods and services
from households - Payments received represent the value of the
factors used in production process
8Economic Theory of Value
- Value is reflected in prices determined through
interaction of supply and demand - Supply (demand) reflects trade-offs firms
(consumers) make when producing (buying) goods
and services - Abundance implies lower prices
- Scarcity implies higher prices
- Conceptually market forces reflect true value
to society, but there are reasons why markets may
fail - Externalities
- Public Goods
- Property Rights
9Introduction and Review
1. What is microeconomics how are economic
models constructed? 2. Buyers, Sellers, Markets
10Whats the difference between Microeconomics
Macroeconomics?
- Microeconomics examines small economic units, the
components of the economy. - For example individuals, households, firms,
industries - Macroeconomics looks at aggregates.
- For example national output, overall price
level, aggregate unemployment
11Questions relevant to all economies,
market-oriented or not
- What goods services should be produced and how
much? - How should the goods services be produced?
- Who gets the goods services?
- How do changes in the production distribution
mixes take place?
12In a market economy, these questions are handled
by the market.
- What how much to produce
- Determined by demand supply conditions,
individual choices, pursuit of profit. - How to produce
- Determined by technology resource costs.
- Distribution
- Based on ability willingness to pay the price.
- What if consumer wants or technology change?
- Those changes alter demand supply, which
changes prices, profits, consequently output
levels distribution.
13The Circular Flow
Product Markets
money to pay for goods services
goods services
Households Resource Owners
Firms
labor other resources
resource payments such as wages, rents, interest
Resource or Factor Markets
14The Market Supply and Demand
15What is the law of demand?
- The lower the price of a good, the larger the
quantity consumers will buy. - So the demand curve slopes downward from left to
right.
16What is the difference between demand quantity
demanded?
- Demand is the entire curve that shows the
relation between price quantity purchased. - Quantity demanded is one particular quantity on
the demand curve.
17Example Apple Market
18What factors change demand (that is, shift the
entire curve)?
- Consumer income
- Prices of substitutes and complements
- Tastes
- Consumer expectations
19Example Apple Market
20What makes the quantity demanded of apples change?
- In other words, what causes a movement along the
demand curve for apples? - A change in the price of apples.
- Thats it, only a change in the price of apples.
21Example Apple Market
22What is the law of supply?
- The higher the price of a good, the larger the
quantity firms will be willing to produce and
sell. - So the supply curve slopes upward from left to
right.
23What is the difference between supply quantity
supplied?
- Supply is the entire curve that shows the
relation between price quantity provided. - Quantity supplied is one particular quantity on
the supply curve.
24Example Apple Market
25What factors change supply (that is, shift the
entire curve)?
- Technology
- Prices of inputs (for example land, labor,
machinery, raw materials) - Weather (in the case of agriculture)
26Example Apple Market
27What makes the quantity supplied of apples change?
- What causes a movement along the supply curve for
apples? - Just a change in the price of apples.
28Example Apple Market
29What is equilibrium?
- It is a state of balance, where there is no
tendency for things to change.
30Equilibrium occurs where the quantity demanded
equals the quantity supplied, which is at the
intersection of the supply and demand curves.
31Example Apple Market
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34Example Cigarette Market
- Suppose that the surgeon general comes out with
stronger health warnings. - That will reduce the demand for cigarettes.
- Simultaneously, there is a year of bad weather.
- That decreases the supply of cigarettes.
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36Elasticity
37Elasticity measures
- What are they?
- Responsiveness measures
- Why introduce them?
- Demand and supply responsiveness clearly matters
for lots of market analyses. - Why not just look at slope?
- Want to compare across markets inter market
- Want to compare within markets intra market
- slope can be misleading
- want a unit free measure
38Why Economists Use Elasticity
- An elasticity is a unit-free measure.
- By comparing markets using elasticities it does
not matter how we measure the price or the
quantity in the two markets. - Elasticities allow economists to quantify the
differences among markets without standardizing
the units of measurement.
39What is an Elasticity?
- Measurement of the percentage change in one
variable that results from a 1 change in another
variable. - Can come up with many elasticities.
- We will introduce four.
- three from the demand function
- one from the supply function
402 VIP Elasticities
- Price elasticity of demand how sensitive is the
quantity demanded to a change in the price of the
good. - Price elasticity of supply how sensitive is the
quantity supplied to a change in the price of the
good. - Often referred to as own price elasticities.
41Examples of Own Price Demand Elasticities
- When the price of gasoline rises by 1 the
quantity demanded falls by 0.2, so gasoline
demand is not very price sensitive. - Price elasticity of demand is -0.2 .
- When the price of gold jewelry rises by 1 the
quantity demanded falls by 2.6, so jewelry
demand is very price sensitive. - Price elasticity of demand is -2.6 .
42Examples of Own PriceSupply Elasticities
- When the price of DaVinci paintings increases by
1 the quantity supplied doesnt change at all,
so the quantity supplied of DaVinci paintings is
completely insensitive to the price. - Price elasticity of supply is 0.
- When the price of beef increases by 1 the
quantity supplied increases by 5, so beef supply
is very price sensitive. - Price elasticity of supply is 5.
43Examples of Unit-free Comparisons
- Gasoline and jewelry
- It doesnt matter that gas is sold by the gallon
for about 1.09 and gold is sold by the ounce for
about 290. - We compare the demand elasticities of -0.2 (gas)
and -2.6 (gold jewelry). - Gold jewelry demand is more price sensitive.
44Examples of Unit-free Comparisons
- Paintings and meat
- It doesnt matter that classical paintings are
sold by the canvas for millions of dollars each
while beef is sold by the pound for about 1.50. - We compare the supply elasticities of 0
(classical paintings) and 5 (beef). - Beef supply is more price sensitive.
45Inelastic Economic Relations
- When an elasticity is small (between 0 and 1 in
absolute value), we call the relation that it
describes inelastic. - Inelastic demand means that the quantity demanded
is not very sensitive to the price. - Inelastic supply means that the quantity supplied
is not very sensitive to the price.
46Elastic Economic Relations
- When an elasticity is large (greater than 1 in
absolute value), we call the relation that it
describes elastic. - Elastic demand means that the quantity demanded
is sensitive to the price. - Elastic supply means that the quantity supplied
is sensitive to the price.
47Size of Price Elasticities
Unit elastic
Inelastic
Elastic
- Unit elastic own price elasticity equal to 1
- Inelastic own price elasticity less than 1
- Elastic own price elasticity greater than 1
48General Formula for own price elasticity of demand
- P Current price of good X
- XD Quantity demanded at that price
- DP Small change in the current price
- DXD Resulting change in quantity demanded
49Note
- The own price elasticity of demand is always
negative. - Economists usually refer to the own price
elasticity of demand by its absolute value
(ignore the negative sign). - So, even though the formula says that the own
price elasticity of demand is negative, we would
say the elasticity of demand is 1.5 in the first
example and 0.67 in the second.
50Supply Elasticities
- The price elasticity of supply is always
positive. - Economists refer to the price elasticity of
supply by its actual value. - Exactly the same type of point and arc formulas
are used to compute and estimate supply
elasticities as for demand elasticities.
51Some Technical Definitions For Extreme Elasticity
Values
- Economists use the terms perfectly elastic and
perfectly inelastic to describe extreme values
of price elasticities. - Perfectly elastic means the quantity (demanded or
supplied) is as price sensitive as possible. - Perfectly inelastic means that the quantity
(demanded or supplied) has no price sensitivity
at all.
52Perfectly Elastic Demand
- We say that demand is perfectly elastic when a 1
change in the price would result in an infinite
change in quantity demanded.
53Perfectly Inelastic Demand
- We say that demand is perfectly inelastic when a
1 change in the price would result in no change
in quantity demanded.
54Perfectly Elastic Supply
- We say that supply is perfectly elastic when a 1
change in the price would result in an infinite
change in quantity supplied.
55Perfectly Inelastic Supply
- We say that supply is perfectly inelastic when a
1 change in the price would result in no change
in quantity supplied.
56Determinants of elasticity
- What is a major determinant of the own price
elasticity of demand? - Availability of substitutes in consumption.
- What is a major determinant of the own price
elasticity of supply? - Availability of alternatives in production.
57Reminders
- Value of own price elasticity usually changes
along a demand curve - There are many interesting intra elasticity
applications - Can also compare elasticities across markets
- There are interesting inter elasticity questions
58Using Demand Elasticity Total Expenditures
- Do the total expenditures on a product go up or
down when the price increases? - The price increase means more spent for each
unit. - But, quantity demanded declines as price rises.
- So, we must measure the measure the price
elasticity of demand to answer the question.
59Bridge Toll Example
- Current toll for the George Washington Bridge is
2.00/trip. - Suppose the quantity demanded at 2.00/trip is
100,000 trips/hour. - If the price elasticity of demand for bridge
trips is 2.0, what is the effect of a 10 toll
increase?
60Bridge Toll Elastic Demand
- Price elasticity of demand 2.0
- Toll increase of 10 implies a 20 decline in the
quantity demanded. - Trips fall to 80,000/hour.
- Total expenditure falls to 176,000/hour (
80,000 x 2.20). - 176,000 lt 200,000, the revenue from a 2.00
toll.
61Bridge Toll Example, Part 2
- Now suppose the elasticity of demand for bridge
trips is 0.5. - How would the number of trips and the expenditure
on tolls be affected by a 10 increase in the
toll?
62Bridge Toll Inelastic Demand
- Price elasticity of demand 0.5
- Toll increase of 10 implies a 5 decline in the
quantity demanded. - Trips fall to 95,000/hour.
- Total expenditure rises to 209,000/hour (
95,000 x 2.20). - 209,000 gt 200,000, the revenue from a 2.00
toll.
63Elasticity and Total Expenditures
- A price increase will increase total expenditures
if, and only if, the price elasticity of demand
is less than 1 in absolute value (between -1 and
zero) - Inelastic demand
- A price reduction will increase total
expenditures if, and only if, the price
elasticity of demand is greater than 1 in
absolute value (less than -1). - Elastic demand
64Elasticity and Total Expenditure (Graph)
- At the point M, the demand curve is unit elastic.
M is the midpoint of this linear demand curve - Above M, demand is elastic, so total expenditure
falls as the price rises - Below M, demand is inelastic. so total
expenditure falls as price falls. - Total expenditure is maximized at the point M,
where the elasticity 1.
65Two real world examples
- Gas taxes in Washington DC
- Vanity plates in Virginia
66Other Price Elasticities Cross- Price Elasticity
of Demand
- Elasticity of demand with respect to the price of
a complementary good (cross-price elasticity) - This elasticity is negative because as the price
of a complementary good rises, the quantity
demanded of the good itself falls. - Example software is complementary with computers.
When the price of software rises the quantity
demanded of computers falls. - Cross-price elasticity quantifies this effect.
67Other Price Elasticities Cross Price Elasticity
of Demand
- Elasticity of demand with respect to the price of
a substitute good (also a cross-price elasticity) - This elasticity is positive because as the price
of a substitute good rises, the quantity demanded
of the good itself rises. - Example soccer is a substitute for basketball.
When the price of soccer tickets rises the
quantity demanded of basketball tickets rises. - Cross-price elasticity quantifies this effect.
68Other Elasticities Income Elasticity of Demand
- The elasticity of demand with respect to a
consumers income is called the income
elasticity. - When the income elasticity of demand is positive
(normal good), consumers increase their purchases
of the good as their incomes rise (e.g.
automobiles, clothing). - When the income elasticity of demand is greater
than 1 (luxury good), consumers increase their
purchases of the good more than proportionate to
the income increase (e.g. ski vacations). - When the income elasticity of demand is negative
(inferior good), consumers reduce their purchases
of the good as their incomes rise (e.g. potatoes).
69Introduction to Macroeconomics
70Introduction to Macroeconomics
- Microeconomics examines the behavior of
individual decision-making unitsbusiness firms
and households. - Macroeconomics deals with the economy as a whole
it examines the behavior of economic aggregates
such as aggregate income, consumption,
investment, and the overall level of prices. - Aggregate behavior refers to the behavior of all
households and firms together.
71Introduction to Macroeconomics
- Microeconomists generally conclude that markets
work well. Macroeconomists, however, observe
that some important prices often seem sticky. - Sticky prices are prices that do not always
adjust rapidly to maintain the equality between
quantity supplied and quantity demanded.
72Introduction to Macroeconomics
- Macroeconomists often reflect on the
microeconomic principles underlying macroeconomic
analysis, or the microeconomic foundations of
macroeconomics.
73The Roots of Macroeconomics
- The Great Depression was a period of severe
economic contraction and high unemployment that
began in 1929 and continued throughout the 1930s.
74The Roots of Macroeconomics
- Classical economists applied microeconomic
models, or market clearing models, to
economy-wide problems. - However, simple classical models failed to
explain the prolonged existence of high
unemployment during the Great Depression. This
provided the impetus for the development of
macroeconomics.
75The Roots of Macroeconomics
- In 1936, John Maynard Keynes published The
General Theory of Employment, Interest, and
Money. - Keynes believed governments could intervene in
the economy and affect the level of output and
employment. - During periods of low private demand, the
government can stimulate aggregate demand to lift
the economy out of recession.
76Recent Macroeconomic History
- Fine-tuning was the phrase used by Walter Heller
to refer to the governments role in regulating
inflation and unemployment. - The use of Keynesian policy to fine-tune the
economy in the 1960s, led to disillusionment in
the 1970s and early 1980s.
77Recent Macroeconomic History
- Stagflation occurs when the overall price level
rises rapidly (inflation) during periods of
recession or high and persistent unemployment
(stagnation).
78Macroeconomic Concerns
- Three of the major concerns of macroeconomics
are - Inflation
- Output growth
- Unemployment
79Inflation and Deflation
- Inflation is an increase in the overall price
level. - Hyperinflation is a period of very rapid
increases in the overall price level.
Hyperinflations are rare, but have been used to
study the costs and consequences of even moderate
inflation. - Deflation is a decrease in the overall price
level. Prolonged periods of deflation can be just
as damaging for the economy as sustained
inflation.
80Output GrowthShort Run and Long Run
- The business cycle is the cycle of short-term ups
and downs in the economy. - The main measure of how an economy is doing is
aggregate output - Aggregate output is the total quantity of goods
and services produced in an economy in a given
period.
81Output GrowthShort Run and Long Run
- A recession is a period during which aggregate
output declines. Two consecutive quarters of
decrease in output signal a recession. - A prolonged and deep recession becomes a
depression. - Policy makers attempt not only to smooth
fluctuations in output during a business cycle
but also to increase the growth rate of output in
the long-run.
82Unemployment
- The unemployment rate is the percentage of the
labor force that is unemployed. - The unemployment rate is a key indicator of the
economys health. - The existence of unemployment seems to imply that
the aggregate labor market is not in equilibrium.
Why do labor markets not clear when other
markets do?
83Government in the Macroeconomy
- There are three kinds of policy that the
government has used to influence the
macroeconomy - Fiscal policy
- Monetary policy
- Growth or supply-side policies
84Government in the Macroeconomy
- Fiscal policy refers to government policies
concerning taxes and spending. - Monetary policy consists of tools used by the
Federal Reserve to control the quantity of money
in the economy. - Growth policies are government policies that
focus on stimulating aggregate supply instead of
aggregate demand.
85The Components ofthe Macroeconomy
- The circular flow diagram shows the income
received and payments made by each sector of the
economy.
86The Components ofthe Macroeconomy
- Everyones expenditure is someone elses receipt.
Every transaction must have two sides.
87The Components ofthe Macroeconomy
- Transfer payments are payments made by the
government to people who do not supply goods,
services, or labor in exchange for these payments.
88The Three Market Arenas
- Households, firms, the government, and the rest
of the world all interact in three different
market arenas - Goods-and-services market
- Labor market
- Money (financial) market
89The Three Market Arenas
- Households and the government purchase goods and
services (demand) from firms in the goods-and
services market, and firms supply to the goods
and services market. - In the labor market, firms and government
purchase (demand) labor from households (supply). - The total supply of labor in the economy depends
on the sum of decisions made by households.
90The Three Market Arenas
- In the money marketsometimes called the
financial markethouseholds purchase stocks and
bonds from firms. - Households supply funds to this market in the
expectation of earning income, and also demand
(borrow) funds from this market. - Firms, government, and the rest of the world also
engage in borrowing and lending, coordinated by
financial institutions.
91Financial Instruments
- Treasury bonds, notes, and bills are promissory
notes issued by the federal government when it
borrows money. - Corporate bonds are promissory notes issued by
corporations when they borrow money.
92Financial Instruments
- Shares of stock are financial instruments that
give to the holder a share in the firms
ownership and therefore the right to share in the
firms profits. - Dividends are the portion of a corporations
profits that the firm pays out each period to its
shareholders.
93The Methodology of Macroeconomics
- Connections to microeconomics
- Macroeconomic behavior is the sum of all the
microeconomic decisions made by individual
households and firms. We cannot understand the
former without some knowledge of the factors that
influence the latter.
94Aggregate Supply andAggregate Demand
- Aggregate demand is the total demand for goods
and services in an economy.
- Aggregate supply is the total supply of goods and
services in an economy.
- Aggregate supply and demand curves are more
complex than simple market supply and demand
curves.
95Expansion and ContractionThe Business Cycle
- An expansion, or boom, is the period in the
business cycle from a trough up to a peak, during
which output and employment rise.
- A contraction, recession, or slump is the period
in the business cycle from a peak down to a
trough, during which output and employment fall.
96Fiscal Policy The Basics
97How big is the Government?
- To see how big of a role the government plays in
the economy we need to see what percentage of the
GDP is represented by the government sector - United States Government plays a smaller role
compared to other countries - But it still plays a big role!
98Fiscal Policy The Basics
99Remember the Flow!
- Funds flow into the government in the form of
- Taxes
- Borrowing
- Funds flow out
- Spending (purchases)
- Transfer payment
100An Expanded Circular-Flow Diagram The Flows of
Money Throughthe Economy
101Sources of Tax Revenue in theUnited States, 2004
102Government Spending in theUnited States, 2004
Social insurance programs are government programs
intended to protect families against economic
hardship.
103The Government Budget and Total Spending
- Fiscal policy is the use of taxes, government
transfers, or government purchases of goods and
services to shift the aggregate demand curve.
104Change a Variable
- Change a variable
- Shift the Curve
105Government Budget Total Spending
- Government directly controls one of the variables
in GDP - GDP C I X - IM
G
106Consumer Spending and Taxes
- Taxes affect Consumer spending
- Disposable Income Total Income Transfer
payment - Taxes - A fall in the Disposable Income leads to a fall
in Consumption - An Increase in the Disposable Income leads to an
increase in Consumption
107Why?
- Why would the government want to shift the
Aggregate demand curve?
108Expansionary Fiscal PolicyExpansionary Fiscal
Policy Can Close a Recessionary Gap
Expansionary fiscal policy increases aggregate
demand.
Recessionary gap
109Why?
- Why would the government want to shift the
Aggregate demand curve inward and shrink
everyones income?
110Contractionary Fiscal PolicyContractionary
Fiscal Policy Can Eliminate an Inflationary Gap
Contractionary fiscal policy decreases aggregate
demand.
Inflationary gap
111Lags in Fiscal Policy
- In the case of fiscal policy, there is an
important reason for caution there are
significant lags in its use. - Realize the recessionary/inflationary gap by
collecting and analyzing economic data ? takes
time - Government develops an action plan? takes time
- Implementation of the action plan ? takes time
112Monetary Policy
- The Basics of Money, Interest, and Banking
113Money Definition
- Simple Definition An article of faith that
guides transactions
114Money Definition
- Formal Definition Money is anything that meets
the following four criteria - Debt Settlement (accepted to pay off loan)
- Medium of Exchange (accepted to buy goods and
services) - Store of Value (can be held for future purchases)
- Unit of Account (can be used to compare prices
and calculate opportunity costs)
115Money Measures
- Whether the Fed chooses to observe it or not,
there are still two (technically three) primary
measures of money - M1 Currency Notes Checking accounts
- Highly Liquid
- M2 M1 Savings Accounts Money Market Mutual
Funds (which are similar to Savings Accounts)
Short-Term, Small CDs. - Less Liquid
- M3 M2 Long Term Time Deposits
- Not Very Liquid not as important
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117Money FYI
- Most Money is book entry
- Monetary Base or High Powered Money is currency
notes, coins, and reserves. - Called High Powered because its the money
directly controlled by the government!
118Interest Rates Definition
- The Cost/Price of Money
- Long Term Interest Rates Price (in terms of what
you give up) to acquire funds for major
investment - Short Term Interest Rates Primarily is the price
(in terms of what you give up) to hold money in
pocket or spend it.
119Interest Rates Types
- There are numerous rates. Most important are
probably - Prime Loan Rate (S.T.)
- Fed Funds Rate (S.T.)
- Mortgage Loan Rate (L.T.)
- Though rates vary, all rates tend to move
together
120Banking Definition
- Entity that transfers money from savers to
investors (often called financial intermediaries) - Dont confuse economic investing with financial
investing! - Banks are in business, not as a public service,
but to make money - Primarily through interest profits (iloan
iborrow/deposit) - This helps to explain why bond market is so
influential
121Banks and Bonds
- Government Bonds are perfect substitutes for
loans - ibond iloan,
- bank indifferent
- ibond gt iloan,
- bank buys bond, rather than lend
- ibond lt iloan,
- bank lends, rather than buy bond
122Banks and Bonds
- This is why the market for T-bonds (govt bonds
with maturities 10 years or more) influences the
market for Long-Term Loans (Mortgages). - In contrast, the markets for T-notes (govt bonds
with maturities of typically 2 to 10 years) and
T-bills (govt bonds with maturities of 3 months,
6 months, and 1 year) influence Short-Term Loans
(buildup inventory, cover business expenses until
customers pay, credit card debt).
123Running a Bank
- On a given day, a typical bank can and will
engage in any of these transactions - Receive deposits from savers
- Give loans to investors
- Borrow money from other banks (through the
Federal Funds market) - Lend money to other banks (through the Federal
Funds market) - Borrow money directly from its district Federal
Reserve Bank (through a Discount Loan)
124Running a Bank
- When you deposit 100 dollars at a bank, what
happens? - Bank would love to lend all 100, but if it has
checking accounts, then, by law, it must maintain
some as reserve (either as vault cash or as a
deposit at district Federal Reserve bank). - Currently, 0 for first 7 million of deposits
3 for 7 million to 48 million and 10 for all
deposits above 48 million.
125Running a Bank
- Lets assume a required reserve ratio of 10.
- Therefore, our bank
- Lends 70 to private households
- Has 30 in reserves at end of day
- What to do?
- Keep 10
- Lend other 20 overnight to another bank (who
might have engaged in more lending that day). - Your bank gains interest, other bank keeps Fed
off its back!