Informing Strategic Investments in Enhancing Agricultural Technology Development and Use:

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Informing Strategic Investments in Enhancing
Agricultural Technology Development and Use The
Role of Agricultural Statistics

Stanley Wood Senior Research Fellow,
International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI) Co-Principal Investigator, HarvestChoice
Contribution of Partners in the Development of
Agricultural Statistics in Africa Twentieth
Session, African Commission on Agricultural
Statistics Algiers, Algeria, 10-13th December 2007
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Overview

• Reinvigorated engagement in agricultural
  development in Africa
• What is HarvestChoice?
• Need for improved agricultural statistical
  data to support strategy/policy/ investment
  analysis
• HarvestChoice/FAO initiatives related to
  agricultural statistics in Africa

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Re-engagement in Agriculture(some examples)

• NEPADs explicit strategy on the role of
  agricultural growth in economic growth ? CAADP ?
  ReSAKSS ? National Strategic (planning, design,
  ME) Information System Analysis Capacity
• World Bank Multi-Country Agricultural
  Productivity Program (MAPP), Rural
  Infrastructure,
• Re-emphasis World Bank Assistance to
  Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa An IEG Review.
  2007. World Development Report. 2007
• Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Agricultural
  Development Program

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BMGF Schematic of the Agricultural Development
Program
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What is HarvestChoice?

• A BMGF-sponsored (4M, 39 month) effort
  co-managed by IFPRI and U. of Minnesota to
  compile, generate, harmonize, and disseminate
  public-goods information on the potential payoffs
  from improved crop production technologies and
  practices.
• Focus on poor farm households in SSA and S.
  Asia, but embedded in a perspective of national
  (social) welfare, and international flows of
  knowledge, technology, and trade
• Institutionally-neutral portal supported and
  accessible to a growing number of RD partners
  FAO (Statistics Division), CIMMYT, CIAT, IRRI,
  ICRISAT, Universities (Pretoria, VT, Georgia,
  Davis), World Bank.

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What is HarvestChoice?

• Partner/user programs HarvestPlus, Generation
  Challenge Program, USAID/IPM-CRSP, USAID/IEHA,
  (AGRA/PASS, WB/MAPP, Howard Buffet Foundation,
  Sainsbury Family Trust)
• Regional partners and processes, e.g. CAADP
  (ReSAKSS), ASARECA, (SADC, CORAF)

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Some Strategic Questions

• Where are the poor and what is their welfare
  status?
• On what cropping systems do the poor most
  depend?
• What are the constraints to the productivity of
  those systems?
• What existing or potential technologies might
  best
• address those constraints? Under what
  scenarios?
• What is the magnitude and distribution of
  potential payoffs to the
• poor from different investment targeting
  strategies?
• by, e.g., districts, AEZs, production systems,
  crops, constraints, technologies..

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Harmonizing (Spatial) Thematic Data
Thematic Layers
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HarvestChoice Activities
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Where are the Africas poor and what is their
welfare status?
Compiling and harmonizing available, sub-national
datasets on Expenditure, poverty,
undernourishment, child mortality and
undernourishment, Micronutrient deficiency,
selected DALYs
Hunger Task Force/CIESIN 2005
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On what cropping systems do the poor most
depend? CONSUMPTION
g. per cap. per day
Rwanda, 2000
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• Crop Consumption
• (1st Admin U/R Expend. Class M/F Headed)
• For 17 countries in SSA
• Includes 73 of SSA population
• All but 2 AGRA/PASS countries
• Testing extrapolation using country typology

HarvestPlus (CIAT IFPRI), maps prepared by
Glenn Hyman
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Overview of Spatial Allocation
Initial Representation
Final Representation
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On what cropping systems do the poor most
depend? PRODUCTION
For 20 major crops at 10km resolution Plausible
assessment of the spatial distribution of
production systems and performance of crops.
Complemented by available data on technology
adoption, market participation, land holding
structure, land tenure new data on input
use/costs (FAO)
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New Tools forDistributing Validating Crop Data

• SPAM Results Web Accessible through Google Earth

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Evaluating the Payoffs to Crop Improvement
for the Poor

• Economic benefits of technical change arising
  from higher (on- and off-farm) productivity,
  lower unit costs, lower variance of output,
  quality price premiums, commercialization
  constraints and opportunities (using 2 stage
  assessment)
• Share of benefits to poor producers and poor
  consumers
• - Spatial incidence of benefits
• - Implications for nutrition and incomes
• Potential sources of benefit Local, spillins
• Economic implications of time lags, (e.g. RD,
  regulation,
• commercialization, adoption)

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What yield response to N Application?

• Maize Yield Response to Fertilizer
• kgMaize Yield / kgN Fertilizer
• Maize in Year 2000 (medium maturity)
• 0.5-degree grid (about 50 km)
• 0 and 50 kgN/ha N fertilization

?
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Site-Specific Response Ghana

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BMGF An (Unofficial) Guide to Selected
Investments, and Strategy Ideas with Potential
Linkages to Agricultural Statistics Capacity in
Africa
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HarvestChoice/FAO activities related to
agricultural statistics in Africa

• Compilation and harmonization of agricultural
  census data (including capture/digitization of
  older data when necessary to better understand
  past trends)
• e.g., holdings, production systems, land
  tenure, cropping patterns, technology and input
  use, labour use, productivity, access to
  services, market participation
• Standardized analysis of national consumption
  and expenditure data
• e.g., household characteristics,
  expenditure/income, consumption of agricultural
  goods, food security

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HarvestChoice/FAO activities related to
agricultural statistics in Africa

• Production system characterization
• (e.g., orientation, output and input mixes,
  technologies, management practices, cropping
  patterns, rotations/fallow use, natural resource
  needs/impacts, productivity)
• Cost of production database
• (to support more detailed productivity and
  profitability analysis - particularly in the
  light of potential change, e.g., increased
  investment or policy change)
• NB All processed data generated will be made
  available in digital format and, wherever
  feasible, made available for national CountrySTAT
  implementations

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HarvestChoice/FAO activities Learning/Partner
Hopes from AFCAS

• Gather and consolidate information on the status
  of on-going and planned nationally representative
  survey and census activities of participating
  countries
• Identify opportunities for data rescue of past
  census/ survey data
• Start to identify potential synergies between
  country statistical service development plans and
  potential funding options of relevance to the
  Gates Foundation portfolio
• Find partner countries to help develop and test
  the Cost of Production survey instrument to be
  administered by FAO/ESSD
• Communicate new opportunities for investment in
  statistical and monitoring systems at country
  level

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