Demographic and Economic Characteristics of Southeast Florida

1
Demographic and Economic Characteristics of
Southeast Florida
South Florida Regional Planning Council
2
Overview

• Population dynamics in all of Southeast Florida
  (the seven counties from Monroe in the south to
  Indian River in the north) are driven by
• Growth The region has consistently grown more
  quickly than the nation, even if it now grows
  more slowly than the State of Florida as a whole.
• Mobility International migration has been the
  largest source of net growth, but domestic
  inflows and outflows also contribute to the
  pulse of growth.
• Changes in composition Migration, whether
  international or domestic, brings with it
  potential shifts in the age, race/ethnic and
  cultural make-up of the region.
• Increasing spatial integration commuting
  patterns and county-to-county migration show
  rising levels of cross-county movement,
  especially within the Miami-Fort
  Lauderdale-Pompano Beach MSA, but also moving
  north within the region.
• Despite the current downturn, when viewed on a
  competitive basis around the country, Southeast
  Florida continues to offer advantages that could
  position it well to resume growth when the
  national economy rebounds.

3
Personal Income

• Per capita personal income in Southeast Florida
  in 2009 was 43,057, which was higher than the
  State of Florida (38,965) and national (39,635)
  averages. Still, the region was already feeling
  the economic downturn, as per capita income in
  2009 was down from 43,887 in 2007 and 44,829 in
  2008.
• Within the region, per capita income in 2009
  ranged from 29,526 in St. Lucie County to
  60,174 in Monroe County.
• Southeast Florida depends on Dividends, Interest
  and Rent for a larger portion of its personal
  income (30.0) than either the State of Florida
  (26.9) or the nation (18.0).
• Both Indian River County and Martin County
  derived over half of personal income from this
  category in 2009, followed by Monroe County
  (45.4) and Palm Beach County (43.7).
• Transfer payments were highest as a proportion of
  overall personal income in St. Lucie County
  (27.9) and Miami-Dade County (21.1), compared
  to only 17.5 nationally.
• The per capita value of transfer payments was
  highest in Indian River County (9,191) and
  Martin County (8,644), where both Social
  Security and Medicare payments were relatively
  high.

4
Southeast Florida Real Per Capita Income
1990-2009 (2009)
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
Economic Information System (April, 2011).
5
Southeast Florida Per Capita Income by Source
2009
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
Economic Information System (April, 2011).
6
Southeast Florida Per Capita Transfer Receipts
by Type 2009
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional
Economic Information System (April, 2011).
7
Southeast Florida of Population Below Poverty
Level, 1999 2010
Source US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census and
2010 American Community Survey.
8
Southeast Florida of Elderly Below Poverty
Level, 1999 2010
Source US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census and
2010 American Community Survey.
9
Southeast Florida of Children Below Poverty
Level, 1999 2010
Source US Bureau of the Census, 2000 Census and
2010 American Community Survey.
10
The Economic Downturn

• As the economy slowed down, both in the nation
  and in Southeast Florida, the job picture
  worsened dramatically
• Between Dec/07 and Jan/10, over 213,000 jobs were
  lost in the 7-county region, a reduction of 7.1.
• Of that total, almost 143,000 jobs were lost in
  South Florida (6.6) and over 70,000 were lost in
  the Treasure Coast Region (8.4).
• During that period, the regions unemployment
  rate rose from 4.7 to 11.0. In Aug/10, the
  unemployment rate reached 12.1 in South Florida
  and 13.0 in the Treasure Coast. As of Dec/11,
  the regions rate was still at 9.7.
• There were over 310,000 unemployed in Dec/11,
  down from 397,000 in Aug/10, but up from 147,000
  in Dec/07 (111).
• Since December 2007, the number of Southeast
  Florida residents enrolled for public assistance
  rose as well. In Nov/11, there were 654,000
  households receiving food stamps worth almost
  156 million, three times the 51 million in
  Dec/07.

11
Southeast Florida Employment, 2007-11
Source Florida Department of Economic
Opportunity.
12
Southeast Florida Unemployment Rate, 2007-11
Source Florida Department of Economic
Opportunity.
13
Southeast FloridaMonthly Value of Food Stamp
Benefits, 2007-11
Source Florida Department of Children and
Families (December, 2011)
14
Southeast FloridaMedian Housing Value (),
2005-2010
Source US Bureau of the Census, American
Community Survey.
15
Resident Population Growth, 2000-10
Source US Bureau of the Census
16
Southeast Florida Components of Population
Change2000 to 2010
Source Bureau of Economic and Business Research
(May, 2011)
17
Southeast FloridaPlace of Birth, 2010
Source US Bureau of the Census, 2010 American
Community Survey.
18
Southeast FloridaForeign-Born Population,
1980-2010
Sources US Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses, 2010 American Community Survey.
19
Origin of the Foreign-Born

• In 2010, 87.2 of the regions 2.2 million
  foreign-born residents came from Latin America.
  That included 1.1 million from the Caribbean,
  434,000 from South America, and 329,000 from
  Central America.
• Countries of origin for the largest number of
  foreign-born residents of the region included
  Cuba (647,000), Haiti (193,000), Colombia
  (154,000), Jamaica (128,000), and Nicaragua
  (95,000).
• Other countries with a significant presence in
  2010 included Mexico, Venezuela, Honduras, Peru
  and the Dominican Republic, each with more than
  50,000 residents.

20
Southeast FloridaJourney to Work Flows, 2009
Source US Bureau of the Census, Longitudinal
Employer-Household Dynamics, On the Map.
21
Changing Composition - Race/Ethnicity

• There is enormous diversity within the categories
  we use to present data on race and ethnicity.
  The Black or African American population includes
  a large number of people from the Caribbean and
  Central and South America, and the Hispanic or
  Latino population is very diverse within.
• Between 2000 and 2010 there was continued rapid
  growth of the Hispanic (658,000) and non-Hispanic
  Black or African American (218,000) populations
  in Southeast Florida, and an absolute decrease in
  the non-Hispanic White population (-229,000).
• In 2010, the race/ethnic composition of Southeast
  Florida was made up of 39 Hispanic or Latino,
  38 non-Hispanic White, 19 non-Hispanic Black or
  African American, and 4 other non-Hispanic.
  About 40 of the Hispanic population was born in
  the United States.
• In 2000, the non-Hispanic White population
  represented 47 of the regional total, down from
  57 in 1990. In other words, the non-Hispanic
  White population of Southeast Florida ceased to
  be the majority sometime in the 1990s, due mostly
  to the growth of the Hispanic population in
  Miami-Dade County.

22
Southeast FloridaRacial and Ethnic Composition
of the Population, 2010
Source US Bureau of the Census.
23
Southeast FloridaChange in Racial and Ethnic
Composition, 2000-10
Source US Bureau of the Census.
24
Southeast Florida Age Distribution, 2010
Source US Bureau of the Census
25
Southeast Florida - Median Age, 1990-2010
Source US Bureau of the Census, Decennial
Censuses.
26
Southeast FloridaChange in Age Composition by
Gender, 2000-10
Source US Bureau of the Census
27
Southeast Florida Growth, 1920-2040
Source Bureau of Economic and Business Research
(June 2011)
28
Changing Composition - Age

• Current projections indicate that, over the next
  2 decades, the population 65 and older in
  Southeast Florida will grow more than any other
  age cohort, as it absorbs the baby boom
  generation.
• The Regions elderly are expected to increase by
  over 688,000 (58), to over 1.7 million, rising
  from 16.6 of the total in 2010 to 23.3 of the
  total in 2030.
• The increase will be more pronounced in the
  Treasure Coast, where the elderly are projected
  to represent 28.4 of the total by 2030.
• In South Florida, the elderly are projected to
  reach over million (20.7 of the total) in 2030,
  up from 14.2 in 2010.

29
Southeast Florida Projections by Age2000-2030
Source Office of Economic and Demographic
Research (February, 2012).
30
Southeast Florida Population 65, 2000-2030
Source Office of Economic and Demographic
Research (February, 2012).
31
Growth - Uncertainties

• Factors that could affect future growth
• Economic Recovery - The pace in the recovery of
  employment growth will contribute to the pace of
  population growth.
• Affordability The high cost of insurance and
  property taxes, combined with relatively low
  wages, could make less expensive regions of the
  State and elsewhere in the US more attractive
  than Southeast Florida, unless there are
  adjustments in the coming years.
• Hurricanes / Insurance If the region is hit
  repeatedly by hurricanes in the coming years, the
  disruption, the cost of repairs and increasing
  insurance costs could discourage residents from
  staying in Southeast Florida or coming here from
  other parts of the US.

32
Growth - Uncertainties

• Factors that could affect future growth
  (continued)
• Changes in immigration laws and enforcement
  Some of the legislative changes under
  consideration, if approved, along with more
  aggressive enforcement, could both affect the
  number of international in-migrants.
• External Events As the earthquake in Haiti
  demonstrated, demographic flows into Southeast
  Florida are strongly affected by external events.
  Political and economic unrest in South and
  Central America and the Caribbean can generate
  unpredictable surges in international migration.
• Sea Level Rise Although the most severe direct
  impacts of sea level rise appear to be beyond the
  2030 timeframe that is the focus of this
  presentation, the need to prepare for its impacts
  starting now will have important consequences for
  the way the Region grows going forward.