Ways of Understanding Urban EQ Risks

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Ways of Understanding Urban EQ Risks
ESA 7 Torun, Poland 8-12 September 2005

• Murat Balamir
• Middle East Technical University
• Ankara Turkey

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The Conventional Spiral Model propogates
the conviction that? societies are subject to
recurring disasters? no control powers are
available on events? action is possible only
after the event ? preparations could
target only for SAR and Recovery? If any
action is to be taken, that is the public
authority
Conceptualizing EQ Related Events
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The Dual Model? Differentiates Mitigation
Activities / Emergency Activities (risk
management / crisis management)? Defines
Mitigation Activities as a continuous and
separate concern? Gives special emphasis
to Mitigation Planning
Conceptualizing EQ Related Events
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National and Urban Risk Prevention Policies

• ... Building a culture of prevention is not
  easy. While costs of prevention have to be paid
  in the present, its benefits lie in a distant
  future. Moreover, the benefits are not tangible
  they are the disasters that did not happen..
  Kofi ANNAN 1999
• Landmarks for Mitigation Commitments
• IDNDR (1990-2000) Yokohama Strategy (1994)
  Millenium Declaration (2000) KOBE Conference
  Resolutions and HYOGO Declaration (2005)
• USA Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (Public Law
  106-390)
• Mitigation Planning, Mitigation Fund, Public
  Private Partnerships, Multihazard Maps,
  Cost-Effective Methods of Mitigation, Safe
  Land-Use and Construction Practices, etc.

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Sociological Accounts of EQ Related Events

• Analyses are almost totaly confined to post-event
  circumstances, and the recovery period
• Usually the difficulties of survival and
  breakdowns in local communities are surveyed,
  rather than particular inequalities generated by
  the disaster impact
• Pre-event studies are fewer and mostly deal with
  historical cases of disaster prediction,
  individuals perception and assessments of risks,
  risk communication, social amplification of
  risk

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Istanbul provides a unique context for the
analyses of pre-disaster social interactions?
High probability (65 for a within 30 years) of
an impending EQ of magnitude 7.4 ?
Extreme Vulnerability due to the poor ground
conditions, low standard environmental/
structural/ infrastructural assets ?
High risks due to large scale and quantities
involved 800 000 bldgs 60 000 bldgs to be
heavily damaged/collapsed, causing 63 000
loss of life, 120 000 casualties? No
experience/ provisions for mitigation? No single
organization or authority to monitor
comprehensive mitigation efforts
The Case of Istanbul
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ISTANBUL and Seismic Hazards
Model A L119km, M7.5 65 probability in 30
years
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Province of Zeytinburnu
90 Unauthorized Stock
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ISTANBUL 1950salmost free of EQ risks
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ISTANBUL 2004 High-Risk Mega-City

• Multi Hazard Environment
• Low Planning Standards
• Unauthorised Stock
• Multiple Changes in Existing Bldgs
• Highly Vulnerable Infrastructure
• Vulnerable Emergency Facilities
• Low level of Social Awareness and Knowledge of
  Mitigation

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ISTANBULhigh-risk megacity
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ISTANBULhigh-risk megacity
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ISTANBULhigh-risk megacity
Narrow Streets
Hazardous Spacing of Buildings
Culs-de sac (dead-ends)
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The Legal and Organizational Context

• Appointed Governor is responsible and sole
  authority for Emergency Operations and
  preparations according to Disasters Law (7269)
• Elected Municipal Administration and Mayor
  responsible for urban physical development.
  However mitigation functions are not yet
  regulated.
• Two major regulations after 1999 EQs are
  Building Supervision, and Compulsory EQ
  Insurance

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Social Processes Observed

• 3 years of contraversial discussions by
  earth-scientists in the media after 1999 EQs,
  about the likely magnitude in Istanbul
• In the information-hungry phase after 1999,
  many earth-scientists became popular public
  figures EQ grandpa, and others whose private
  lives turned into assets for the media industry
• Some of such figures attempted to exploit the
  media credits for carreer promotion At least 2
  enjoyed inclusion in the political party lists in
  the local and national elections (without
  success).
• The media had an influential role, but with many
  adverse impacts
• - tendency for producing sensational news
• - overemphasis in the moment of EQ and
  emergency context
• - generation of high expectations
• - disinformation
• - pseudo scientism
• - distortions in property markets

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Social Processes Observed

• Many voluntary local community action groups
  emerged, yet dissipated in time in the absence of
  formal support
• Independent measures are undertaken by a
  multiplicity of authorities yet without coherent
  vision
• Almost all measures taken are related to
  emergency action
• MMI supported the EMPI by 4 universities which
  produced the principles for an integrated road
  map
• International interest is high especially in
  carrying out technical research
• The funds and projects imposed by the WB has
  distorted the road map proposed by the
  universities
• Citizens are exhausted and would prefer it happen
  soon and over extended periods of loose
  management has led to attitudes of underresponse
  in the low-income
• There are varied understandings of what
  constitutes the risk the professional circles
  tend to professionalize their own scenaria

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Competing Theses Discourses with latent
ideologiesthat generate inequalities/equalities

• It is the Buildings that kill people therefore
  it
• is Necessary and Sufficient to Retrofit the
  
• Buildings (engineers)
• It is possible to maintain all necessary
  Mitigation
• Measures through the Market System (WB,
• insurance industry)
• Comprehensive and Integrated Mitigation
• Planning is an Imperative (EMPI)

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The Engineers Approach

• The Procedure Envisaged
• Survey the Whole Stock (800 000 buildings)
• Identify and Remove the most Vulnerable buildings
• (65 000 estimated)
• Transfer Households involved to previously
  developed stock (almost a population of 2
  million)
• Identify buildings that could be retrofitted
• Campaign for Enforcement of retrofitting
• Develop new Technical Regulation for Retrofitting
• Change Flat Ownership Law for compulsory
  retrofitting
• Campaign for the provision of Credits to
  Households (WB)

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WB Projects for Istanbul (PIU)
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EMPI Principles To Enhance Urban Resilience

• Involve many groups of the urban society as
  possible, for collective management of risks
  (Total Mobilization)
• 2. - Consider all possible sets of urban risk
  sectors extra to natural hazards
• - Identify parties and stake-holders in each
  sector to draw protocols for
• safer conduct
• - Interrelate/ integrate all risk sectors,
  protocols, and projects as
• components of an integrated Mitigation
  Plan
• Designate High-risk localities for immediate/
  intensive-care
• - promote planning of participatory local
  regeneration projects
• - organize partnerships within planning
  procedures
• - devise new tools for enforcement and finances

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MAJOR RISK-SECTORS of EMPI

• Risks in Macro-Form and Growth Tendencies
• Urban Fabric (buildings, plots, coverage, roads,
  car-parks, etc.)
• Incompatible Land-Use Risks (buildings and
  districts)
• Risks of Productivity Losses (industrial plants,
  SMOs)
• Risks in the Building Stock and Infrastructure
• Risks in Hazardous Uses (LPG and petrol stations,
  etc.)
• Special Risk Areas/ Special Buildings (historic
  bldgs)
• Risks in Emergency Facilities (hospitals,
  schools, etc)
• Emergency Scenario-based Risk Determination
• Administrative Incapacities (infrastructure,
  experts, training, etc.)
• External Vulnerabilities (Accidents, Terrorism,
  Climatic Extremes)

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Forces in the Background

• The Material Context
• - incentives and funds advanced for
  preparations
• - high competition for generating market
• opportunities, and for potential jobs in
  the
• market
• The Mental Context
• - the contradictions generated by the spiral
  and
• dual models
• - the implicit personalizations of risks
  according to
• interest groups as expressed in the 3
  hypotheses

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Thank You for Your Attention