BEA Regional Data and the Dallas FED

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BEA Regional Data and the Dallas FED

• Franklin D. Berger
• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
• The views expressed are those of the speaker and
  should not be attributed to the Federal Reserve
  Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System

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Understanding the regional economy is important
to monetary policy
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BEA Regional Products

• Gross State Product
• State and Local Personal Income
• Regional Facts Sheets (Bearfacts)
• Regional Input-Output Modeling System (Rims II)
• Regional Economic Information System (REIS)

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We Love the BEA !
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We want more data, and sooner !
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Issues

• Timeliness

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Issues

• Timeliness
• Frequency

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Issues

• Timeliness
• Frequency
• Geography

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• A New Quarterly Output Measure for Texas
• Franklin D. Berger and Keith R. Phillips
• Economic Review
• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
• Third Quarter 1995
• Available at www.dallasfed.org

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Chow-Lin Procedure
Quarterly real earnings
Annual gross state product
Hocus Pocus
Quarterly gross state product
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(No Transcript)
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(No Transcript)
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Issues

• Lack of fit in some industries

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Issues

• Lack of fit in some industries
• Mining real GSP uncorrelated with anything
• real earnings, national corporate profits, oil
  prices, natural gas prices, crude oil production,
  natural gas production, rig count

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Issues

• Lack of fit in some industries
• Mining real GSP fits nothing
• Nondurable manufacturing neither
• real earnings

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Explanations?
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Explanations?

• Capital Intensity

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Explanations?

• Capital Intensity
• Energy-related

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Thank You
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Who Am I?

• Franklin D. Berger
• Manager of Research Support
• Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
• [phone]
• frank.d.berger_at_dal.frb.org

www.dallasfed.org