Rational Choice

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• Session 8
• Rational Choice

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Rational Ignorance

• The Founders envisioned a face-to-face,
  deliberative democracy
• They also assumed that it would be representative
  in that elites would govern on behalf of the
  mass public

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Rational Ignorance

• Trends
• More participants in the process with access
  increasing over time
• Direct election of senators
• Primaries for presidents
• The current reality, given population size and
  mass communication does not encourage
• Face-to-face interaction
• Participation through representatives

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Rational Ignorance

• Massive numbers of voters wash out the influence
  of any one person
• Lack of face to face interaction means that there
  is no penalty for ignorance
• Why would the rational actor bother to acquire
  information when it is much more efficient and
  cost-effective to remain ignorant?

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Elements of the Rational Actor Model

• Maximize utility
• Individuals evaluate alternatives and choose the
  one they believe will benefit them the most
• They act in concert with this belief, in order to
  produce the benefit
• Actors calculate utility individually, not
  collectively

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The Paradox of (Not) Voting
The Famed Palm Beach Ballot
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Yogi Berra Social Scientist

• Asked if he wanted to
• go to a restaurant that
• had once been a
• favorite, he said
• Nah, nobody goes
• there anymore
• its too crowded!

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Why Vote? Why Not Vote?Why Ask Why?

• Is Voting a Good Thing? Should We Care Whether
  Participation is High, or Low?
• Should We Rely on Voting at All? Isnt There a
  Better Way to Make Decisions?
• When Should We Use Direct Democracy, and When
  Should We Use Representative Democracy?

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Downsian Model of Turnout (Downs, 1957 An
Economic Theory of Democracy)

• Four Important Components
• Likelihood of Influencing Outcome
• Benefit of Having One Candidate, Rather Than the
  Other, in Office
• Cost of Voting, or Turning Out
• Sense of Civic Duty, or Obligation

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Likelihood of Influencing Outcome

• If you ask someone whether they vote, then they
  are likely to say yes, and then say that they
  vote because their vote makes a difference. But
  is that right?

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Does Your Vote Matter?

• The only way your vote literally matters is if,
  by voting, you change the outcome of the
  election.
• Not the vote total, but the outcome.
• So, your candidate must be either behind by one
  vote, or tied. Have you ever heard of that
  happening?

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Does Your Vote Matter?

• What is the probability of your vote mattering
  in this very precise and narrow sense?
• (N!/N/2!?(N-N/2)!)/2N
• If N100, then P?.08
• If N100,000, then P?.000002

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100,000 a small electorate!

• How Close Are U.S. Presidential Races?
• 1992 Elec. College Popular
• William J. Clinton, Democrat
• 370
  44,908,233
• George H. W. Bush, Republican
• 168
  39,102,282
• H. Ross Perot, Independent
• . . .
  19,741,048

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How Close Are U.S. Presidential Races?

• 1996 Elec. College Popular
• William J. Clinton, Democrat
• 379
  47,401,185
• Robert Dole, Republican
• 159
  39,197,469
• H. Ross Perot, Reform
• . . .
  8,085,294

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How Close Are U.S. Presidential Races?

• 2000 Elec. College Popular
• George W. Bush, Republican
• 271
  50,456,169
• Al Gore, Democrat
• 266
  50,996,116
• Ralph Nader, Green
• . . . 2,695,696

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So, Would One Vote Change the Outcome?

• We just had one of the narrowest elections ever,
  with the Electoral College vote margin only 5
  votes, and that was decided by only about 537
  votes in Florida.
• Would one vote have mattered? Obviously not.
• But then, WHY VOTE?

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Benefit of Having One Candidate, Rather Than the
Other, in Office

• Downs called this the net candidate
  differential.
• Measured as the difference in satisfaction, or
  utility if one candidate takes office, compared
  to the utility if the other candidate takes
  office.
• The measure is then net how much better is the
  good person than the bad person.

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If the answer is, there is little difference,
then....

• Why Vote? If the candidates are Tweedledee and
  Tweedledum, then there is no reason to vote.
  Your vote
• has no impact on
• the policies that
• will be
• implemented.

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Cost of Voting, or Turning Out

• Registration
• Weather
• Opportunity Cost of Time
• Cost of Becoming Informed
• Maybe Even Fear

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Sense of Civic Duty, or Obligation

• Why Dont You Litter? Even if you knew that you
  wouldnt be caught, lots of people wont litter
  (others will, of course!)
• Dont want to let down my team.
• Have to worry about feeling guilty
• Cant complain, if I dont vote!

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Downsian Model

• P ? B D ? C Implies Turnout
• Reduce Costs?
• Increase Sense of Obligations?
• Do We Really Want to Do That?

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Indifference

• Pure Indifference

Voter
Cand 1
Cand 2
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Effective Indifference

• P ? B lt C D
• Indifference Curve is thick

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Alienation

• Both (all) candidates are so far away from what
  the voter wants that s/he feels alienated,
  distant from politics and parties

?