Dan McKenzie

1
Increasing the Role of Statistic in Water Quality
Management Decisions

• Dan McKenzie
• ORD Western Ecology Division
• Corvallis, Oregon
• Sept. 10, 2004

2
Outline

• Clean Water Act Requirements
• Past Before EMAP
• Present Transition (Implementation)
• Future Opportunities (Needs)

3
Clean Water Act(CWA)

• Objective restore and maintain the physical,
  chemical, and biological integrity of the
  Nations waters
• Section 303(c) State Water Quality Standards,
  Designated Uses Criteria
• Section 305(b) Report Condition of Nations
  waters
• Section 303(d) List of Impaired waters and
  Restoration Plans

4
Past CWA Reports

• EPA Reports to Congress (2 yrs)
• 305(b) State Data Inconsistent (Designated
  Uses, Criteria, Indicators, Methods)
• 303(d) States Assessed Waters (Selected Sites,
  Listing Criteria)
• All Reviews Identified Major Shortcomings

5
Florida Summary

• The state has approximately 50,000 miles of
  streams, 3,000 square miles of lakes, and 4,000
  square miles of estuaries.
• For this report, water quality was summarized by
  determining the degree of attainment for
  designated use for the states different water
  body types. FDEP assessed 9,016 miles of rivers
  and streams, 1,302,976 acres of lakes, and 3,658
  square miles of estuaries. Of the assessed miles,
  29 percent of total river miles, 20 percent of
  total lake areas, and 69 percent of total
  estuarine areas clearly attain their designated
  use (Figure 1).

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Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program
(EMAP)

• Estimate Current Status, Trends and Changes
  Regional Basis Known Confidence
• Estimate Geographic Coverage and Extent Known
  Confidence
• Seek Associations Indicators of Stresses and
  Condition
• Statistical Summaries Assessments

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EMAPs Original Guiding Figure
Status Association Questions
Status
Associations
Extent of Resource (number, length, area)
Condition Good Fair Poor
Nominal Unknown Acidity Toxicity Eutrophication Ha
bitat
8
Geographic TargetingWhere does Fish IBI suggest
problems?
(Insufficient Data)
North-Central Appalachians
Western Appalachians
Ridge and Blue Ridge
Valleys
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EMAP Probability Survey Example Results (complex)
4
10
2002 State Report Included Basin - Stream
Impairment
75
lt25 25-49 50-74 gt74 No Est.
37
28
23
10
27
20
67
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CWA 305(b) -- Status

• States Implementing Probability Surveys
• Streams (30 States)
• Estuaries (Coastal States)
• EPA Office of Water
• Probability Survey or Census
• Integration of 305(b) and 303(d)
• Conducting National Stream Survey
• Aquatic Resources Monitoring
• www.epa.gov/nheerl/arm

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Integrated Monitoring Part 1
303(d) Assessment Process
Target Population Condition Stressors (status)
(1) EMAP Design (probability survey)
305(b) Report
Found Sites

• (2) Estimated Status Probabilities
• Spatially Explicit Estimation
• Aggregation
• Classification
• Modeling

Attainment-Impairment
NAS planning list
waterbody attaining all uses
waterbody has high probability of impairment
Insufficient, No Information
waterbody attaining some uses, no threatened uses
Where do I need to do follow up monitoring?
Impaired waterbody
(3) Targeted Surveys
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Example Extending EMAP StatusEstimated IBI
Condition at Reach Scale
Good
Poor
Fair
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Extending EMAP Associations Stressors Associated
with IBI Status at Reach Scale
Nominal Unknown Acidity Toxicity Eutrophication Ri
parian Habitat
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Potential Areas for Target Surveys
High Prob. Non-Impairment Riparian Habitat
Associations Acidic Associations Eutrophication
Associations Toxicity Eutrophication
Associations
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Potential Target Survey Design
Target Population Stream Reaches within Area
Associated with Acidic Stressors Survey Design
Weighted by Estimated IBI Condition (Good, Fair,
Poor)
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Integrated Monitoring Part 2
303(d) Assessment Process
(3) Targeted Surveys Results Combining
intensified survey designs, gradient sampling,
site-specific designs as appropriate
Attainment-Impairment
waterbody attaining all uses
waterbody attaining some uses, no threatened uses
Waterbody impairment confirmed
?
303(d) List
Is there an existing TMDL, or impairment not
caused by pollutant?
TMDL development
Other Plans Expected to Achieve Attainment?
Management Action
(4) Probability survey designs to establish
attainment
How to delist?
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Key Concepts Elements

• 303(d) Requires Site Scale Information
• Observations, Estimates, Forecasts
• Objective Basis to Categorize all Waters, Assign
  Priorities
• Known Confidence Uncertainty
• Sequential Processes

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Information sources

• Probability Survey Results
• Existing Non-Probability Stations
• Fixed Station (Intensive, Few Sites)
• Traditional Monitoring Program (Extensive, Few
  Observations)
• Special Study Research Areas
• Complete Coverage (LuLc, etc.)

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Potential Strategies

• Sequential Estimation Approaches (WQ, Stressors,
  IBI)
• Endpoint Estimation (IBI)
• Estimate Probability of Condition (Good, Fair,
  Poor)

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Some Challenges

• Cause and Effect Relationships
• What to Fix/Change to Restore or Protect
• Assignment of Sources
• Impairment Decisions (10 Obs. Exceed Criteria)
• De-Listing Criteria

22
Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)

• Original Focus Point Sources
• Issues Shifted to Non-Point Sources
• Multiple Sources Stressors
• 10,000 TMDLs Completed
• Substantial Workload
• Implementation, Effectiveness (?)

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FUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS OF A STREAM ECOSYSTEM
ATMOSPHERE
STREAM USE
LAND USE
Stressor Sources
WATER TABLE
Movement of Materials
RELEVANCE TO ECOLOGICAL FUNCTION
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CONCEPTUAL MODEL WADEABLE STREAMS
ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS Angling
Pressure Stocking Agriculture Manufacturing Mining
Riparian Alterations Invasion of non-native spp.
HUMAN USES Consumption Waste Receptor Recreation/A
estethics Harvesting
ANTHROPOGENIC STRESSORS Agriculture Manufacturing
Mining Forestry Practices Population Density Road
Density Channelization Dams
ECOSYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY
HABITAT INTEGRITY
BIOTIC INTEGRITY
ABIOTIC CHARACTERISTICS
BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS

• WATER QUALITY
• Temperature
• Turbidity
• Nutrients
• Organic/inorganic Chemicals
• Toxics
• pH

• HABITAT QUALITY
• Substrate type
• Depth and Velocity
• Volume
• Flow regime
• Habitat heterogeneity
• Instream Cover

RELEVANCE TO ECOLOGICAL FUNCTION
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CONCEPTUAL RELATIONSHIP STRESSORS vs. RICHNESS,
ABUNDANCE, AND HABITAT METRICS
Stressor
Exposure Measurements
Response Metrics

• SO4

• pH ð é Metals

• Family, Spp. Richness

• Abundance

• Nutrients

• NO3

• Sensitive spp.

• Population
• Roads
• Livestock
• Row Crops
• Logging
• Dams

• Tolerant spp.

é Turbidity, Sedimentation

• Benthic spp.

• Water Column spp.

• Riparian Modifications

• Long-lived spp.

• Chemicals
• Ichthyocides
• Stocking

• Instream Fish Cover

• Non-indigenous spp.

RELEVANCE TO ECOLOGICAL FUNCTION
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Opportunities

• Incorporation of Conceptual Model Information
• Objective Evidence on Causes Sources
• Multiple Stressors
• Epidemiological Tools?
• Forecast Restoration Effort/Change, Time
  Sequences

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Summary

• Major Improvements Occurring
• Significant Short Term Contributions Possible
• Longer Term Opportunities Require Innovation and
  Creativity
• Statistical Foundation Critical