Strategic Futuring: Managing uncertainty

1
Strategic Futuring Managing uncertainty Making
the future actionable
Marketing Alliance of Michigan February 20, 2009
David J. Staley, Ph.D. Principal, The DStaley
Group david_at_dstaleygroup.com
614.316.1348
2
Do you ask

• what will the A/E/C business space look like
  when the economy (finally) moves out of
  recession?
• what services will customers be demanding in
  2015?
• what sort of employees will the Millennial
  Generation make?
• whats the next game-changing technology?
• what are the capabilities we posses that will
  allow us to achieve more market growth in the
  future?
• what should we be doing now to prepare for
  whats next?

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strategic futuring
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3 futurists caveats 1) a strategic futurist is
not in the business of predicting the
future
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prediction
past present future
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scenario
scenario
scenario
scenario
past present future
scenario
scenario
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probable
if not prediction awareness and
anticipation of plausible futures
possible
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Look for change points,
or fault
lines in the business
environment
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2) all futurists statements are conditional
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3) futuring is not visioning
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vision (strategic intent)
possible futures
scenario
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trend scanning implications assessment
scenarios (for fault lines)
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Scenario a description of a changed business
environment, a potential future context for
business decisions
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scenario space
Scenario space
disruptive
impact
stable
possible
plausible
probable
probability
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scenario space
disruptive
scenario
scenario
scenario
scenario
impact
scenario
scenario
scenario
scenario
stable
possible
plausible
probable
probability
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not a map of the future a map of our
perceptions of the future
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scenario space
disruptive
impact
stable
possible
plausible
probable
probability
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scenario space
disruptive
impact
stable
possible
plausible
probable
probability
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(impact, probability)
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scenario (x,y)
scenario (x,y)
scenario (x,y)
scenario (x,y)
impact
scenario (x,y)
scenario (x,y)
scenario (x,y)
scenario (x,y)
1
1
5
probability
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15 scenarios to watch
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scenario 1 Building information modeling (BIM)
will become an industry standard.
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scenario 2 Nanotechnology will lead to the
creation of new building materials, with
increased strength, durability, fire protection
and other properties.
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scenario 3 Off-the-grid green design Green
design is nearly industry standard. Whats next
will be buildings (and automobiles?) that produce
their own energy, that either add to the grid or
remove building from grid.
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scenario 4 Web 2.0 The increasing use of social
networking technologies will enable
collaborative, integrated design, construction,
and manufacturing project teams (and will even
involving the client and other end users).
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scenario 5 China will emerge as an international
center of financial power capitalization and
finance increasingly dependent upon Chinese
capital, or US Banks backed by Chinese
capital.
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scenario 6 Innovation from Asian/Middle Eastern
designs.
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scenario 7 Aging baby boomers Because of their
large numbers and youthful countenance, aging
baby boomers will impact the design and
construction of cities and regions residential
and commercial buildings retirement complexes
hospitals and other health care facilities and
automobiles and public transportation.
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scenario 8 Terrorism and security issues
Commercial buildings will need to be designed and
built to cope with terrorist attacks and the
threats posed by extreme weather.
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scenario 9 Brazil as the next China
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scenario 10 A need for more, and greener, data
centers
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scenario 11 skyscraper farming
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scenario 12 Networked automobiles (part of a
personal rapid transit system)
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scenario 13 The New Urbanism and the decline
of suburbia
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Thinking about the unthinkable
does not mean wish fulfillment does not mean
imminent does mean increasing awareness,
anticipation, preparation
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scenario 14 The U.S. declares bankruptcy
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scenario 15 Rising economic nationalism (or the
world is not so flat)
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4
1
8
3
7
4
5
2
9
10
3
6
impact
2
1
1
5
3
2
4
probability
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futuring must be an ongoing process
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scenario space
disruptive
scenario
scenario
scenario
scenario
scenario
impact
scenario
scenario
scenario
scenario
stable
possible
plausible
probable
probability
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The actionable future
strategic futuring is about the
decisions we make in
the present
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The actionable future
capacity
scenario
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A strategy that is robust across a number of
scenarios not optimal under one
prediction
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Outliers
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extend peripheral vision
disruptive
impact
stable
possible
plausible
probable
probability
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No crystal ball scenarios, possibilities, a
portfolio of futures
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http//www.dstaleygroup.com david_at_dstaleygroup.c
om
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Strategic Futuring Managing uncertainty Making
the future actionable
Marketing Alliance of Michigan February 20, 2009
David J. Staley, Ph.D. Principal, The DStaley
Group david_at_dstaleygroup.com
614.316.1348