Model Comparison: TopDown vs. BottomUp Models

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Model Comparison Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up Models
P.R. Shukla
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Classification of Energy Sector Models
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Reference Energy System
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Representative Bottom-up Model Flow Chart (MARKAL)
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Representative Top-down Model Flow Chart (SGM
2000)
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Comparative Dimensions
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Model Examples
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Relative Strengths
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Soft Linked Integrated Modeling Framework
TOP DOWN MODELS
Productivity
SGM
ERB Model
Global Energy Prices
GDP Prices
Energy Balance
BOTTOM-UP MODELS
Scenarios
MARKAL
Stochastic MARKAL
Technology Details
Power Sector LP Model
End-use
Demand
Technology Share
End-use Demand
Demand Projection
AIM/ENDUSE
Technology Specifications
Health Costs
OTHER MODELS
Inventory Estimation Model
Emissions
Health Impact
GIS based Energy
Model
Emissions Model
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Model Characteristics Bottom-Up Models
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Model Characteristics Top-Down Models
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Model Characteristics Other Models
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Some Top-down Model Results
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GDP loss over base case Carbon Tax scenarios
Tax Scenarios
25/ tC
50/ tC
100/ tC
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Energy Consumption Carbon Tax cases
Tax Scenarios
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Some Bottom-Up Model Results
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Technology Mix in Brick Production
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High Draught
VSBK
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Clamps (Biomass)
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Bull trend Kiln 2
Bull trend Kiln 1
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Billion Nos.
60
40
20
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Year
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Sectoral Energy consumption (EJ)
From 1995-2035 Industry Residential Grow 3.5
times Commercial Grows 9 times Agriculture
Stagnates Transport Grows 5 times