Context

1
Context
2
Economics/Stagflation
The OPEC Oil embargo in 1973 had consequences
lasting through the early 1980s, not only for the
price of oil but for the entire economy

3
(No Transcript)
4

• The embargo touched off high inflation rates
  despite a stagnant economy, termed stagflation
  
• Inflation, unemployment, and interest rates rose
  steadily throughout Carters presidency,
  
• Thought to be impossible under standard
  Keynesianism, which was the economic policy
  traditionally adhered to by liberals, so liberals
  had no prescription for a solution

5
(No Transcript)
6

• In addition, the Iranian revolution in 1979 and
  the invasion of Iran by Iraq caused a dramatic
  spike in oil prices, which further exacerbated
  the severity of the economic downturn
• All combined to give Carter the worst score on
  the Misery Index by any president in modern
  times both on average and at its highest point
  
• Misery index is the sum of the inflation rate and
  the unemployment rate

7

• It is because of this backdrop that Reagans
  question, Are you better off now than you were
  four years ago? dealt such a blow to the Carter
  campaign

8
The Iran Hostage Crisis

• The Iranian Hostage Crisis is considered by some
  to be the largest reason for Carters defeat
  
• Much like the Vietnam War or the Kennedy
  assassinations did in the 1960s, the Iran Hostage
  Crisis dominated the news and daily life for over
  a year
• Walter Cronkite began signing off by announcing
  the number of days the hostages had been held
  

9
Irans Revolution

• After decades of support by the American
  government, the US-installed Shah of Iran was
  overthrown by the religious leader Ayatollah
  Khomeini in 1978-1979
• The Shah fled to America on October 22, 1979, and
  Khomeini, thriving on Anti-American sentiment,
  urged Iranians to protest
  

10
(No Transcript)
11

• On November 4th, 1979, students from local
  universities in Tehran took over the American
  Embassy, taking 68 hostages
  
• 13 were released within 3 weeks because of their
  minority status as women or African-Americans and
  1 more was released when diagnosed with multiple
  sclerosis

12
(No Transcript)
13

• Although the Ayatollah did not have prior
  knowledge of the plan, he supported the
  hostage-takers in the aftermath as a political
  move to rally radical Islamists in Iran, thus
  greatly prolonging the crisis for 444 days
• Carter refused to take a hard line and threaten
  large scale military action, which some cite as
  the reason for the long duration of the crisis
  
• Rather he initially appealed to Iran on
  humanitarian grounds and used economic measures
  like halting Iranian oil imports
  

14

• Within minutes of the inauguration of Ronald
  Reagan, the hostages were released

15

• As a result of his handling of the crisis, the
  public may have perceived Carter as a weak and
  ineffectual leader lacking in resolve
  
• A Gallup Poll taken on 9/9/1980 revealed that 60
  considered him indecisive, while only 35
  considered him decisive (5 no answer), and 66
  said he lacks strong leadership qualities,
  while 29 said he did (5 no answer)

16

• Sparked the modern day 24-hour news cycle
• CNN was formed in 1980, and ABC ran a nightly
  news program called America Held Hostage, which
  later continued as Nightline.
  

17
The Primaries
18
The Republican Primary The Candidates

• John Anderson, U.S. representative from Illinois
• Howard Baker, U.S. senator from Tennessee and
  Senate Minority Leader
  
• George H.W. Bush, former director of the Central
  Intelligence Agency and former chairman of the
  Republican National Committee
  
• John Connally, former governor of Texas and
  former Secretary of the Treasury
  
• Phil Crane, U.S. representative from Illinois
• Bob Dole, U.S. senator from Kansas and 1976
  vice-presidential nominee
  
• Ronald Reagan, former governor of California and
  former candidate for the 1976 presidential
  nomination

19
The Republican Primary The Setup

• Reagan ahead in Polls, adopts the above the fray
  approach to campaigning the primaries
  
• George Bush attends straw poll events, gains
  some recognition
  
• Iowa Caucuses point to Bush for the win
• Reagan sponsors debate between himself and Bush
• Bush fails to make an impact on voters and Reagan
  pulls ahead in polls

20
The Republican Primary The Results

• Ronald Reagan -1,939
• John Bayard Anderson- 37
• George H.W. Bush- 13
• Despite Bushs loosing the nomination, Bush takes
  the VP nomination by an overwhelming margin

21
The Democratic Primary The Candidates

• Jerry Brown, governor of California
• Jimmy Carter, incumbent president
• Ted Kennedy, U.S. senator from Massachusetts

22
The Democratic Primary The Setup

• Unemployment, inflation and a shortage of
  gasoline contributed to a very poor approval
  rating for president carter. Gallup polls showed
  -28
• Carter makes desperate attempts to boost approval
  rating
  
• Ted Kennedy decides to take advantage of Carters
  poor approval ratings and run for the democratic
  ticket (despite the Chappaquiddick scandal )
  
• Kennedys public forums offer him little help in
  the polls. Appeared confused and fumbled over his
  words.
  
• Carters gets a boost in the polls from the
  Tehran, Iran hostage crisis and pulls ahead in
  the polls
  
• Carter takes the democratic ticket

23
The Democratic Primary The Results

• Jimmy Carter 2129.02
• Ted Kennedy 1,150.48
• Walter Mondale - VP

24
General Election
Under federal election laws, Carter and Reagan
received 29 million each, and Anderson 18.5. T
hey were not allowed to spend any other money. C
arter and Reagan each spent about
15 million on television advertising, and
Anderson under 2 million.
25
The Campaign
The Issues In the campaign of 1980 there were ve
ry clear issues dividing the candidates. Carter
supported the Equal Rights Amendment, while
Reagan opposed it. Reagan opposed he Strategic
Arms Limitation Talks, while Carter supported it.
Carter called for a national health insurance
program. Ultimately, however, it was not these
issues but the twin issues of the American
Hostages in Iran and what the Republicans called
the misery index (inflation plus unemployment)
ended Carter's chance of being re-elected.
In summary the three major issues of the campaig
n were far greater threats to Carter's prospects
for reelection the economy, national security,
and the Iranian hostage crisis
Reagan pledged to make a new beginning and to co
rrect the current direction of the Country.
We cannot accept continued inflation, a mismana
ged energy crisis, the erosion of our dollar, and
the loss of our personal hopes. We must stop the
decline of our leadership in the world, the
weakening of our defense capability and the
aimless drifting from crisis to crisis.
26
Republican
Are you better off than you were four years ago?


Reagan promised a restoration of the nation's
military strength. Reagan also promised an en
d to "'trust me' government" and to restore
economic health by implementing a supply-side
economy policy. Reagan promised a balanced bu
dget within three years, accompanied by a 30
reduction in taxes over those same years.
With respect to the economy, Reagan famously sa
id, "A recession is when your neighbor loses his
job. A depression is when you lose yours. And
recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his."
http//www.youtube.com/watch?vTTX27pmZGLk (256
)
27
DemocratThe Incumbent

• Basic Strategy was to Attack Reagan
• Without a strong record to run on, the Carter
  team decided its only chance was to go after
  Ronald Reagan, painting him as a wild-eyed
  conservative ideologue who could not be trusted
  to maintain the peace.
• Shoots from the hip- cant back up statements
  with facts
  
• Voodoo Economics
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vgGhGx5PhDTg
  (030)
  

28
Independent
Lowering interest rates, inflationary tax cuts
Foreign Diplomacy Environmental Preservation
Civil Rights Reforming Health Care Oil, 50-
50 plan ? 50-cent-per-gallon energy conservation
tax on all motor vehicles to cut consumption
and reduce our dependence on foreign supplies. He
realized the need to offset the burden, of such
an energy tax by using the revenues from the tax
to reduce employee Social Security taxes by 50
Percent, increase Social Security benefits,
compensate those who are not on payrolls, exempt
farmers, and allow tax credits for businesses
unfairly penalized. Was able to hurt Carter by
splitting the democratic vote
29
The Debates
30
First Debate- September 21, 1980
Location Baltimore, MDParticipants Ronald
Reagan (R), John Anderson (Independent)
President Carter refused to join the debate due
to the participation of Independent candidate
John Anderson Reagan makes references to the ori
ginal goals of the country "We can meet our
destiny... for all mankind, a shining city on a
hill." Reagan also discussed his major campaign
themes such as cutting taxes, cutting government
and increasing military strength. He also
attacked Carter's economic record.
Anderson pledged to raise taxes- standing in the
polls went down after the debate
31
2nd Debate - October 28, 1980
Location Cleveland, OHParticipants Jimmy
Carter (D), Ronald Reagan (R)
Held just a week before the election, the debate
received much attention. Presidential Debate
between President Carter and Governor Reagan
received among the highest ratings of any TV show
in the previous decade, while much substance was
discussed such as the Iranian hostage crisis,
nuclear arms treaties and proliferation, Carter's
campaign sought to portray Reagan as a reckless
"hawk." Reagan responds There you go again,
"Are you better off than you were four years
ago?" Top issues included inflation, the energy
crisis, terrorism, the troubles with America's
inner cities and defense policy (particularly
nuclear weapons). Carter ticked off specific
constituencies that had benefited from his
programs, and tried to depict Reagan as an
irresponsible loose cannon on nuclear matters.
Where Carter went wrong "I think to close out
this discussion, it would be better to put into
perspective what we're talking about. I had a
discussion with my daughter, Amy, the other day,
before I came here, to ask her what the most
important issue was. She said she thought nuclear
weaponry -- and the control of nuclear arms."
Most analysts concluded this so-called "Amy
speech" didn't work.
32
And The Results Are In
The election was held on November 4, 1980. Reagan
beat Carter by 10 in the popular vote.
Republicans also gained control of the Senate for
the first time in twenty-five years on Reagan's
coattails. The electoral college vote was a
landslide, with 489 votes (representing 44
states) for Reagan and 49 for Carter
(representing 6 states and the District of
Columbia). John Anderson won no electoral votes,
but got 5,720,060 popular votes.
33
Reagan Has a Totally Sweet Win!
34
How it Went Down
35
The Significance
The election of 1980 was a key turning point in
American politics. It signaled the new electoral
power of the suburbs and the Sun Belt. Reagan's
success as a conservative would initiate a
realigning of the parties, as liberal Republicans
and conservative Democrats would either leave
politics or change party affiliations through the
1980s and 1990s to leave the parties much more
ideologically polarized.