final.1

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Satellite Communications APart - Final

• The Future-Professor Barry G Evans-

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Timeline - development of commercial satcom (1/2)

• 1945 Arthur C Clarke
• 1956 First transatlantic telephone cable
• 1962 Telstar
• 1964 Intelsat founded
• 1965 Earlybird
• 1969 Intelsat completes global system
• 1976 Marisats launched
• 1977 Eutelsat created
• 1979 Inmarsat created
• 1982 Inmarsat starts operations
• 1983 Eutelsat F1 launched

3
Timeline development of commercial satcom (2/2)

• 1984 PanAmSat founded
• 1985 SES Astra incorporated
• 1987 Iridium conceived
• 1988 First transatlantic fibre cable
• 1988 First PanAmSat launch
• 1989 First SES Astra launch
• 1995 PanAmSat completes global system
• 1998 Iridium service launch
• 1999 Iridium in Chapter 11
• 2001 Intelsat Eutelsat privatisations

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Where we are now (1)

• Satcom applications
• Vsat business TV
• Broadcast content delivery
• TV distribution contribution
• Internet trunking
• Internet access

• Basic telephony private circuits
• Mobile transportable offshore
• Thin route rural remote
• Disaster, emergency
• Government

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Where we are now (2)

• Disadvantages of satellite
• Low capacity (compared to fibre)
• End-to-end delay (with Geo technology)
• Large, up-front investment long time to pay
  back
• Implementation risks
• Exit costs
• Regulatory constraints/finite raw materials
  (orbital slots spectrum licensing/market access)

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Where we are now (3)

• Advantages of satellite
• Wide area coverage
• Global reach
• Low cost per site passed
• Fast set-up reconfiguration
• Availability where terrestrial alternatives are
  poor, non-existent or not an option
• Ability to broadcast/multicast

7
Industry revenues in 2000

• Worldwide satellite industry revenues
• Manufacturing 18.3 B
• Launch 9.6 B
• Services 37.0 B
• Ground Equipment 17.7 B
• Total 82.6 B
• SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact
  Sheet, 5 June 2000

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Satellite services revenues 2000

• Transponder leasing 8.8 B
• DTH 24.7 B
• MSS (telephony) 0.4 B
• VSAT 1.4 B
• MSS (data) 1.3 B
• Remote sensing 0.4 B
• Total 37.0 B
• SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact
  Sheet, 5 June 2000

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Satellite services customers 2000

• DTH
• Subscribers 67.0 M
• VSAT
• Units in operation 610,000
• MSS
• Data units in operation 854,000
• Telephony units in operation 274,300
• SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact
  Sheet, 5 June 2000

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Global projections

• Projected revenues of the satellite industry
• 2001 100.0 B
• 2010 200-300.0 B
• Projected subscribers to digital radio
• 2010 50 M
• Projected revenues from broadband services
• 2008 37 B.
• SIA/Futron - Satellite Industry Indicators Fact
  Sheet, 5 June 2000
  
  ISBC State of the Space Industry 2000 Pioneer
  Consulting

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Satellite is essential infrastructure

• Broadcasting to businesses and homes (DTH)
• Broadcasting to cable head-ends
• Cable TV distribution dependent upon satellite
• ISP connectivity caching multicasting
• Distribution of internet content
• Private Networks
• VSAT networks key corporate private network
• SNG
• Broadcast stations and news bureaus rely on
  satellite links.

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Changing Scenes

• 1995 Bright prospects for terrestrial mobile
  and satellites
• 2000 Terrestrial mobile booming satellites
  collapse with Iridium/Globalstar failures
• 2002 Satellite broadcasting and Internet
  booming terrestrial 3G in Doldrums
• Our ability to predict the telecoms market and
  to provide affordable services is poor

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2002 Whats new

• Internet drives FSS
• DVB Direct TV success
• Satellite radio (DAB/DARS) prospects
• Mobile SPCNs crash end of constellations?
• INMARSAT niche still strong

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General Climate of Change (1/3)

• Deregulation / Liberalisation
• Inmarsat / Intelsat / Eutelsat private companies
• Global operations via acquisitions
• 1. SES-Global (gt1billion turnover)
• 2. Intelsat
• 3. Panamsat
• 4. Eutelsat
• Consolidation of manufacturers
• Europe Alcatel Space, Astrium, Alenia
• US Boeing, Lockheed, Loral

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General Climate of Change (2/3)

• Standards
• Satellite moving same way as Mobile GMR
  standards and now S-UMTS
• Spectrum
• Limited (WRC00 Little for satellites)
• Sharing/Pricing Satellite advantage
• Efficiency Can satellites provide?

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General Climate of Change (3/3)

• Convergence
• Fixed/Mobile/Broadcasting
• Service mobility
• Billing convergence
• Investment Changes rapidly Satellites poor at
  moment
• Competition Cable, fixed radio, HAPS

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Where we are now

• Total satcom industry revenues were 27 Bn in
  2000 (around 3 of global telecom revenues) -
  Source ESA
• Internet via satellite services generated 800M
  global revenues in 2000, from zero in 1997 -
  Source DTT Consulting
• Total satcom industry revenues are projected to
  grow to 106 Bn by 2007. The majority of the
  growth will come from broadband data and video
  services. Interactive multimedia revenues are
  forecast to be 18Bn by 2007, DARS 9Bn - Source
  ESA

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Lessons to learn (1)

• Commercial
• A big-bang, high-profile service launch date is
  unwise
• There is no such thing as a global service launch
• The satellite owner/operator will be badly let
  down by uncommitted or poorly-performing
  distributors
• Bad news about one satellite project is bad news
  for all
• Satellite systems can not charge whatever they
  like
• Confirmed access to spectrum is vital
• Market access is crucial to business success
• The first to market is not necessarily the winner
• Finding killer applications is difficult

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Lessons to learn (2)

• Financial
• Year one forecasts must be realistic
• The investors are highly dependent on the
  performance of the distribution chain.
• Financing a start-up satellite system is very
  hard
• Do not rely on investment banks
• Exit costs are extremely high
• Flotation too soon leads to exposure and
  inflexibility

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Lessons to learn (3)

• Technology
• The satellite manufacturer will not deliver on
  time
• Be realistic about time to market
• Do not design a satellite system around just one
  application
• User terminals can be among the most difficult
  elements in a mass-market satellite project
• Good technology does not assure commercial
  success
• Alternative, non-satellite technologies do not
  stand still
• Do not underestimate the complexity and costs of
  non Geo systems

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Lessons to learn (4)

• Service
• Motivating distributors is vital
• It is essential to have service delivery
  experience at the forefront
• For the mass-market, continuous service
  availability is very important
• User expectations must be carefully managed
• Distribution strategy must be coherent and
  focussed
• Service provision/distribution channels must be
  aligned closely with the overall interests of the
  enterprise. They must be up to speed right at
  the start
• Service and useful functions are the ultimate
  deliverables

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Rememberthe advantages of Satellite

• Wide area coverage broadcast
• Quick roll-out of services
• Provides wide bands (high bit rates)
• Coverage areas that are expensive for terrestrial
• Avoids terrestrial infrastructure

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FSS - Focus on the Internet

• Satellite delivery of IP-based services increased
  800 over past two years
• 11 of all ISPs use some satellite links to
  connect to the Internet backbone
• By 2001 total ISP demand for satellite links will
  equal 216 transponders
• Internet specific satellite transponder lease
  revenue will jump from 601M in 2001 to 8.5B in
  2006
• End-user and ISP satellite multicast equipment to
  reach over 7B in 2005.
• DDT Consulting Frost Sullivan Pioneer
  Consulting

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Internet Services

• 30-40 Intelsat resources now IP
• Multicasting from satellites
• Caching provision offers improved bandwidth and
  response times
• Satellite products available Comsat
• CLA 2000
• TCP/IP
• Spoofing
• Slow start/Variable windows
• LINKWAY 2000
• Multiservice BOD
• ATM/IP/FR/ISDN
• IP routing protocols (RSVP)
• BOD adaption

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Broadband

• Ka and constellations lost momentum
• Back to GEOs and DVB-S
• IP to the customer DVB-RCS
• e-Europe / Broadband Britain Satellite role
• 4500 (36MHz equivalent transponders) ? 7000 by
  2007

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Satellite Direct To Home (DTH)

• 67M subscribers globally - urban, suburban and
  rural
• 25M satellite households in Western Europe alone
• In Spain, Italy, UK and France more satellite
  households than cable households.
• DTH taking market share from cable in US
• Cable increasingly expensive to lay (rights of
  way) - cable companies looking at satellite
  options to reach customers
• DTH presages 2-way internet/broadband demand
• 52 of Astra users own PCs and 27 have online
  access.

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80 of European digital TV delivered by satellite

• "Another important area is digital television.
  The market for digital TV doubles or even triples
  a year in several EU countries. Europe has closed
  the gap with the USA with over 10 million
  subscribers. New services are rolled out, ranging
  from Internet access to digital TV-based
  e-commerce."
• From a speech by Mr. Erkki Liikanen, "eEurope and
  e-Business" Europay International, Key Members'
  Conference Amsterdam, 1 July 2000

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Satellite Broadcasting

• DBS in USA (gt15m subscribers), 43 of digital
  services DirecTV and EchoStar
• SNG market growing
• 97mods to DVB-S allow 90cm-1.5m SCPC
• 8Mb/s with 8PSK/TCM/16QAM option
• DVB-RCS now becoming standard for IP delivery

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Digital Radio (DAB-DARS)

• US
• Xm Radio (GEO) up --services operation
• SIRIUS Radio (HEO) --services operation
• Infrastructure in place Deals with leading
  car/truck companies
• Radios in shops (US) and in cars/trucks
• Worldwide
• Worldspace 3 world coverage satellites
• Infrastructure/Radios in place
• Europe
• Global Radio / Worldspace
• S-DAB
• Convergence broadcasting/mobile Multimedia and
  multicasting

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Sirius satellite radio system
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Satellite competitive local access

• Satellite DTH has successfully competed with
  cable in urban, suburban and rural areas for
  decades
• Satellite is a competitive means of local access
• Only wireless technologies bypass the incumbents
  pipes and offer consumers a real last mile
  choice
• No other last mile technology - DSL, WLL, etc.
  - has a proven track such as satellite.
• Satellite will be a critical access means for
  bandwidth hungry, converged services.

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Mobile Satellite Systems

• S-PCS (Iridium/Globalstar) failed lead on
  competition with terrestrial will not succeed
• Inmarsat niche market area successful but small ?
  200k users, and expensive
• Constellations not popular

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GEO-Mobiles

• ACES/THURAYA etc.
• 200 spots from 14m deployables
• On board dsp channel to beam routing
• GSM/GPRS services GMR standards
• Can they provide services economically?

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GEO Mobile Systems
ACES ASC APMT Sat Phone Int. EAST Thuraya
QoS/Availability
Service Offerings
Coverage
Timing
Price
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Inmarsat Niche Market Extension
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ConvergenceMobile / Broadcasting (positioning)

• Broadcast / Multicasting with caching
• Push and store services
• Vehicles and handhelds
• S T (UMTS) or DVB/DABS with UMTS
• Location based services tied with Galileo

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DMB Broadcast/Multicast mission

• Content Delivery Network Model
• Push mechanism
• Multicast mechanism
• Store mechanism

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DMB Architecture Synoptic
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Opportunity for Satellite

• Where are terrestrial networks weak points?
• Infrastructure cost
• Deployment of UMTS islands in a GPRS world
• Traffic costs
• Limited bandwidth per cell
• Environmental (tower, pylon, radiation)
• Designed for symmetric traffic
• Where will UMTS network never go?
• Broadband broadcast/multicast services (not
  addressed in R99)
• Dont you feel any fresh air, there?

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Little LEOs

• Definition
• Constellations of LEO satellites, operating at
  frequencies lt 1GHz, providing non real-time
  digital communications for applications such as
  messaging, property tracking, email and
  telemonitoring
• 2001 Orbcomm fails is this the end?

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Future Opportunities

• Keys are
• BROADBAND
• INTERACTIVITY
• INTEGRATION
• MOBILITY

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Future Opportunities

• Convergence of Satellite delivered
  broadcast/multicast with terrestrial delivery of
  other services
• Broadband internet access and interactivity
• DVB-RCS standardisation
• Mass markets rather than niche
• Cooperating service provision plus completing
  terminal networks

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Future opportunities
44
Key Constraints

• Spectrum availability at right time
• Poor perspective of satellites by terrestrial
  operations
• Will they embrace as part of global network
• Unavailability of finance
• Regulatory issues and standard bodies

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Future satellitesProduct Developments

• Reliable low cost launch capability
• Large GEO platforms (3-4 tons) 15Kw
• Long life, high power/strange/dissipation
• Autonomy low cost, rapid production
• Small LEO platforms
• Medium life, pointing agility/stability
• Autonomy low cost, rapid production
• Large deployable reflectors
• 12-14m (Tx/Rx) 100 spots
• Active antennas
• BFNs
• Phased arrays
• OBP
• Beam forming channelising
• Regeneration switching
• Miniature, active/passive, microwave equipment
  (L/s, Ku, KA)
• ISLs (optical)

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Conclusions

• Markets
• Very large up to 4140B by 2010
• Asia/Pacific Rim biggest
• Digital Broadcast Internet driven (DVB/DAB)
• Convergence of mobile/broadcast systems using
  local caches (push to start) band in vehicle
  services
• Broadband
• Satellites provide early starts
• 3G UMTS?
• Multimedia to home
• Broadband
• Mobility
• INMARSAT niche Maritime/Aero
• Mass markets opened up by broadcast/mobile
  convergence
• Civil/Military
• Synergies
• Shift to service delivery/content
• Emphasis away from equipment manufacture
• Software service
• Competition

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Satellite the competition

• Technical limitations of terrestrial networks
  will severely restrict broadband availability.
• Digital subscriber line (DSL) signals decay on
  long telephone lines or on those of poor quality.
  
• Local multipoint distribution service (LMDS)
  signals cannot penetrate obstructions, buildings.
  
• Cable performance deteriorates if too many in a
  neighborhood log on at the same time.
• Fiber-to-the-home is a costly retrofit,
  economically viable only for new housing
  construction.
• For up to one third of the population in the U.S.
  and an even greater portion worldwide, satellite
  technology will not simply be a choice, it will
  be the choice.