MODELING ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT OF APPLICATIONS FOR

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MODELING ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT OF APPLICATIONS
FOR
Presentation by Alexander (aka Sasha) Mahura at
the YSSP Modeling Group Seminar Institute of
the Northern Environmental Problems Kola Science
Center Russian Academy of Sciences
IIASA, Laxenburg 9 August 2001
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WHAT?
GOOD IDEA TO START?
Assumptions?
Boundary Conditions?
System of Equations?
And Bla-Bla-Bla
Bla-Bla-Bla?
Approximations?
Bla-Bla-Bla?
Accuracy?
Bla-Bla-Bla?
Bla-Bla-Bla?
Bla-Bla-Bla?
Bla-Bla-Bla?
Parameterizations?
Bla-Bla-Bla?
Input vs. Output Data?
Scaling?
Initial Conditions?
Numerical Methods to Solve?
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LETS OPEN THE DOOR AND GET INSIDE
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WHERE TO MODEL?WHAT ENVIRONMENT WE CHOSE?
LIQUID RELATED
Wait-wait! Guys-guys, you forgot me! I am from
the space!
SOLID RELATED
GAS RELATED
ATMOSPHERE
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GENERAL LOOK
WHAT WE WANT?
WHAT WE NEED?
WHAT COULD BE DONE?
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SOURCES OF CONCERN
Natural
Man-made
RADIATION RISK
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RADIATION RISK SOURCES
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GIS RISK SOURCES DATABASES
Source INTAS/CERUM/INEP Study, 1998-2000
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MODELING
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MODELING ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT OF
 ? METEO MODEL ? TRANSPORT
MODEL   Meteorological Variables
Fields Transport, Dispersion, Deposition,
Concentration, Doses due to ,
etc. Various Parameterizations
  ? We Know, We
Know, We Know ? We Do Not Know   Local/
Meso/Regional/ Large/ Hemispheric/ Global
Scales NCAR, 3-D simulation ECMWF,
based on real meteodata MM5, based on
climatology HIRLAM, etc Climate Data vs.
Real-Time Modeling
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RADIONUCLIDE TRANSPORT
? Main Dose-Contributing Nuclides   137, 134Cs,
131, 133I, 89, 90Sr, 132Te, 140Ba, 103Ru,
238, 239Pu    ? Concentration of the Radioactive
Species in the Atmosphere   ConcRad(t)
Advection TurbDiffusion DryDepos Wet Depos
Rad Decay ReSuspension A B
C D E F A - atmospheric
transport due to advection by a wind velocity
vector, U (u,v,w-wind components) B -
atmospheric transport due to turbulent diffusion
Ki (Kx, Ky, Kz) C - removal of gaseous and
particulate nuclides from atmosphere to surface
by vegetation, biological, or mechanical
processes D - scavenging of pollutants by
precipitation processes (washout, rainout, snow
etc E - mechanism of transformation of many
basic dose-contributing nuclides by simple
decay, decay into daughter nuclides,
secondary decay of daughter nuclides F -
secondary source of contamination after an
accidental release has stopped, for local scale
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APPLICATIONS
Oops! I am sorry, did I interrupt you?
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CLUSTER ANALYSIS ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT PATHWAYS
Input day trajectories Criteria latitude
longitude of trajectories at each time
step Analysis By seasons, months, years
entire dataset of years Output Mean clusters
(atmospheric transport pathways) of transport
pathway occur
Source UAF/ADEC Study, 1996-1998
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PROBABILITY FIELDS ANALYSIS AIRFLOW FAST
TRANSPORT PATTERNS
Airflow Probability Field Kamchatka NRS,
1987-1996
Fast Transport Probability Field
Vladivostok NRS, Winter
Source FARECS Study, IIASA/US DOE-2001
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POSSIBLE REMOVAL DURING TRANSPORT
Source UW/UAF/CERUM Study, 1998-1999
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PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING OFTHE CONTROL LEVEL
Accident at the Nuclear Power Plant
Accident at the Nuclear Submarine
Source INTAS/INEP Study, 1999-2000
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137Cs SURFACE DEPOSITION LOCAL SCALE
Accident at the Nuclear Power Plant
Accident at the Nuclear Submarine
Source ORW/INEP Study, 2000-2001
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GIS VULNERABILITY RISK ANALYSIS
Source UC/DMI/INTAS/INEP/NARP Study, 2001
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CURRENTLY USED MODELS
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MODELS OF ATMOSPHERIC RADIONUCLIDE TRANSPORT,
DISPERSION, REMOVAL 1 
MATHEW/ADPIC (Lange 1978 Foster 1992Ermak
et al., 1995) USA, Lawerence Livermore National
Laboratory
MACCS (MACCS, 1992) USA, Sandia
National Laboratory
DEM/DREAM (Zlatev, 1995 Zlatev et al., 1996
Maryon et al., 1996 Brant, 1998) Denmark,
Danish Environmental Research Institute
 EURAD
(Ebel et al., 1991 Haas et al.,
1990) Germany, University of Koln, Institute of
Geophysics and Meteorology
 FOA RDM (Karlsson et al., 1996 Linquist et
al., 1998 Naslund Holstrom, 1993) Sweden,
Swedish Defence Research Establishment
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MODELS OF ATMOSPHERIC RADIONUCLIDE TRANSPORT,
DISPERSION, REMOVAL 2 
Hi again, I am still here!
 KNMI/RIVM (Van Rheineck
et al., 1989) Netherland, Netherland
Meteorological Institute  
RODOS/RIMPUFF (Thykier-Nielsen Mikkelsen,
1991 Mikkelsen Desiato, 1993) Denmark, Riso
National Laboratory  
SNAP (Saltbones et al.,
1995 Saltbones et al., 1996) Norway, Norwegian
Meteorological Institute
TRADOS/SILAM (Pollanen et al., 1994
Pollanen et al., 1997 Valkama, 1998) Finland,
Finnish Meteorological Institute
AND BLA-BLA-BLA
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CONCLUDING REMARKS

• ? CONSIDERING PROBABILITY OF ATMOSPHERIC
  TRANSPORT
•  
• Preliminary estimates of atmospheric pathways and
  consequences at
• the first stages of an accident (based on a
  climatology)
• - More complex studies of economical,
  sociological, etc. consequences
• - Sensitivity analysis of various models with
  different model grid resolutions

? CONSIDERING 3-D X-SCALE MODELING   -
Deposition Wet, Dry, etc Parameterizations -
Accident Scenario, Release Height, Duration  -
Meteorology Wind Velocity, BL Height,
Stability  - Relief Plain vs. Complex
Terrain  - CPU time ??? gt Scientific purposes
-gt might be OK, Emergency response -gt
search a compromise
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
References to a large variety of publications
CREDITS THANKS
A. Baklanov, DMI DENMARK
J. Merrill, U of RI USA J. Harris,
NOAA CMDL USA S. Morozov S.
Koshkin INEP KSC RAS RUSSIA O.
Rigina Univ of Copenhagen DENMARK R.
Andres Univ of ND USA D.
Jaffe Univ of W USA R. Bergman
L.Thanning FOA SWEDEN
COMPUTER FACILITIES, RESOURCES DATABASES
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR), Boulder, Colorado, USA - Arctic Research
SuperComputing Center (ARSC), Fairbanks, Alaska,
USA - University of Washington (UW), Seattle,
Washington, USA - Kola Science Center Russian
Academy of Sciences (KSC RAS), Apatity, Russia -
Swedish Research Defence Establishment (FOA),
Umea, Sweden - Danish Meteorological Institute
(DMI), Copenhagen, Denmark - International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
Laxenburg, Austria