NASEO Energy Outlook Conference

1
NASEO Energy Outlook Conference

• February 26, 2001
• John Cook
• Energy Information Administration

2
Retail Product Prices Are Driven By Crude Oil
Source Retail - EIA Spot - Reuters
3
WTI Crude Oil Price Base Case and 95 Confidence
Interval
Projections
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
4
OPEC Crude Oil Production 1998-2001
History
Projections
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
5
Annual World Oil Demand Growthby Region,
1991-2001
Forecast
History
Other includes Australia, New Zealand, the
Middle East, and Africa.
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
6
Total OECD Oil Stocks
Total includes commercial and government stocks.
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
7
Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices
Source EIA and OECD
8
Product Price Spreads Over Crude Oil Vary With
Seasons and Supply/Demand Balance
Source Reuters
9
U.S. Distillate Inventories
Source EIA
10
Distillate Stocks Are Important Part of East
Coast Winter Supply
Source Energy Information Administration
11
Both Distillate Supply and Demand Reached
Extraordinary Levels This Winter
Source EIA
12
Heating Oil Imports Strong in 2001
Source EIA
13
Retail Heating Oil and Diesel Fuel Prices
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
14
Consumer Winter Heating Oil Costs
Average Northeast Household Heating With Oil
97-98
98-99
99-00
00-01
Actual
Actual
Actual
Base Fcst.
Gal
636
650
644
715
0.92
0.80
1.18
1.39
/gal
585
520
760
994
Cost ()
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
15
Propane Prices Influenced by Crude Oil and
Natural Gas
16
U.S. Propane Total Stocks
Source Energy Information Administration
17
Retail Propane Prices
Source EIA/State Heating Oil and Propane Program
18
Gasoline Price Volatility Is a Concern This Summer
Source Reuters
19
Low Stocks Mean Tight Markets
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
20
MTBE Prices Responded to Natural Gas Prices
Source Reuters, Platts
21
Retail Motor Gasoline Prices
Regular self-service
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
22
Current Natural Gas Spot Prices Well Above the
Recent Price Range
23
U.S. Natural Gas - Working Gas in Underground
Storage
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
24
Natural Gas Spot PricesBase Case and 95
Confidence Interval
Sources History Natural Gas Week Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2001.
25
Sources History EIA Projections Short-Term
Energy Outlook, February 2001.
26
What to Watch Iraq, OPEC andStocks, Stocks,
Stocks

• Crude Oil Iraq, OPEC, and World Economy
• Distillate End of Winter Stocks, Peak November
  Stocks, Crude Oil Prices
• Propane End of Winter Stocks, Peak October
  Stocks, Crude Oil Prices, Natural Gas Prices
• Gasoline May Inventories, Rapid Inventory Draws,
  Crude Oil Prices
• Natural Gas March Storage, Summer Build Rates
  (temperature)