Title: Nomad Opportunities in Jerbia
1Nomad Opportunities in Jerbia
2Recommendations
- Aggressively seek contract extension for License
R-10 (494M of Value) - Existing fields with infill drilling 242
Million (J 109M, K 63M, L 69M) - Moose Newt with infill drilling (204)
- Prospect fields (48M)
- Pursue Moose Newt with Extension with Infilling
- Moose 109M with 30 / bbl oil
- Moose 302M with internal oil price estimates
- Do Not Pursue Moose Development without Extension
(3.6M), unless - Infill drilling is possible
- Arent responsible for well capping in 2012
- Capital constraint does not suggest other
projects - Deciding does not jeopardize chance of extension
(Jerbia claims residual) - Comfortable with oil price estimate above 30 /
bbl (breakeven below 31 / bbl) - Strategic Considerations
- 30 / bbl Brent Crude is too conservative
- Compared to Long Term Brent Crude forecasts
futures
3R-10 Renewal Benefits Existing Fields
- Infill drilling is attractive regardless of
contract status (242M) -
- Financial gain from two sources
- Additional revenue from Jerbian Light Crude
(60.7 Million BBLs) - Increased tax shields resulting from a larger
asset base to be depreciated (Current Base
530M, Contract Extension Base 780M)
4R-10 Renewal Benefits Moose Newt Fields
Note Infill assumes 12M for a 8 production gain
5R-10 Renewal Benefits Prospective Fields
- At least 4 prospective fields have been
identified in geographical territory under the
R-10 license, nicknamed Wolf, Caribou,
Marmot, and Panther - Additional NPV of 48 million anticipated from
prospect fields - Explore prospective wells only if the license is
renewed - Begin when Newts appraisal phase is over to
maximize production - 3-Step decision tree for NPV calculation initial
exploration, appraisal, and production - Staggered start of one year between projects
(creating a window of 10-14 years to produce oil
before the license runs out in 2027) - The size of the new discoveries will be key
drivers in any future negotiation for license
renewals beyond 2027
6Risks and Risk Mitigation Strategies
- Salvage value of equipment
- Convey project uncertainty to Government partner
- Evaluate increased near-term production and asset
transferability - Partner Participation
- Identify potential replacements in advance of
go/no-go decision - Government stability
- Remain neutral in internal political matters
- Disruption to existing Jerbian industries
- Use known construction firms and identify risks
of expanded production in advance - Nationalization Tax / Royalties changed
- Negotiate lagged payments align profit
incentives - Typhoons / natural disasters
- Share design and management best practices with
existing facilities
7Brent Crude Price Forecast (/bbl)
Source Energy Information Agency
(www.eia.doe.gov) and inflationdata.com
(http//inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate
/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp)
8Recommended Priorities
- First Priority
- Renewal of the R-10 Contract
- Refining capabilities and Ethanol
- Good citizen programs
- Consider competition / alternatives
- Infilling drilling in the Existing 3 Fields
- Development of the Moose field
- Second Priority
- Development of the Newt field
- Further exploration and development in R-10
- Third Priority
- Evaluate new plots in Jerbia to leverage
infrastructure - Ongoing risk mitigation
- Evaluate impact of increased Jerbian production
on transport costs
9Appendix
10Implications of Crude Oil Forecasts
- Estimate is below futures contracts for 5yrs
- Suggest overvalued futures contracts
- Not an Arbitrage Opportunity
- Different forecast periods
- Low level of estimate certainty
- Better profit opportunities in core business
11R-10 Renewal Benefits Existing Fields
- Continued exploitation of existing fields with
infill drilling (242M) -
-
- Financial gain the result of two primary sources
- Additional revenue from Jerbian Light Crude (60.7
Million BBLs) - Increased tax shields resulting from a larger
asset base to be depreciated (Current Base
530M, Contract Extension Base 780M)
12R-10 Renewal Benefits Existing Fields (Erik
Prices)
- Continued exploitation of existing fields with
infill drilling (389M) -
-
- Financial gain the result of two primary sources
- Additional revenue from Jerbian Light Crude (60.7
Million BBLs) - Increased tax shields resulting from a larger
asset base to be depreciated (Current Base
530M, Contract Extension Base 780M)
13R-10 Renewal Benefits Moose Newt Fields (30
Price / bbl)
Note Infill assumes 12M for a 8 production gain
14R-10 Renewal Benefits Moose Newt Fields
(Forecasted Price / bbl)
Note Infill assumes 12M for a 8 production gain
15Strategic Considerations
- Price Forecast Sensitivity
- 30 probably too conservative
- Jerbian alternatives to Nomad Team
- Competitors
- National Oil Company
- Inflation and Exchange Rates
- PPP should hold for Long-Term Jerbia relationship
16Supporting the Advancement of all Jerbians
- Team R-10, consisting of Nomad Petroleum,
Luxpetrol, and Speck Oil - Translations in French and Jerbian
17Agenda
- History of Jerbia and Team R-10 Partnership
- Vision for Future Collaboration
- Desirable License Extension Opportunity
- Terms of Proposed License Extension
- Value of Choosing Nomad as Service Provider
18History of our Partnership
- Long and successful history of working with our
Jerbian partners - 1994 Discovered the Jackal field
- Koala 2nd major field discovery
- Leopard Recent continuance of success
- Has provided 642M (?16.2B) to Jerbia in Royalty
revenues - Has provided 2.0B (?50.0B) to Jerbia in Taxes
- Oil from fields developed by Team R-10 is
equivalent to 3.9 of GDP and 16 of total
Jerbian oil produced
19Opportunities for Future Growth
- Moose Field
- Tax Royalties of 386M (?14.6B) over the
license life - Newt Field
- Tax Royalties of 443M (?6.2B) over the license
life - Continued exploration of the R-10 area
- 4 prospect Fields
20Proposed R-10 License Renewal Terms
- Contract Terms
- Nomad is prepared to bid 340M for rights to
explore and develop the R-10 area - Assumes 20 discount rate
- 15 for shareholder required returns 5 for
additional risk of operating - Payment in installments, ½ at contract signing
and ½ at commencement of contract - Portion of fee to be invested in domestic
refining capacity - Anticipated product cost savings offset license
payments - Same royalty structure as existing license
- Commitments to Jerbia
- Possible Refinery / Ethanol plant
- Training for national workers and community work
- Operational skill and safety
- Environmental Protection
- Commitments from Jerbia
- Honor contract terms
- Consistent application of Royalty / Tax
regulation
21Benefits of License Renewal to Jerbia
- Tax Royalty Revenue (2013-2027, non-prospect
fields) - Taxes 1,222M (?30,550)
- Royalties 585M (?14,625)
- Employment
- Training and employment for additional Jerbian
citizens and businesses - Refinery Addition
- Reduce cost of finished product (shipping costs)
- Boost domestic sugarcane industry with Ethanol
facility - Corporate Citizenship
- Environmental and Safety benefit
22Bid Justification Scope of Work
- Team R-10 has experience in Jerbian fields and
has the know-how to return maximum benefits to
Jerbia - Our bid is based on the assumption that Team R-10
will - Fully develop Moose and Newt fields
- Infill existing fields
- Prospect unexplored regions of R-10
- Continue partnership with existing partners
- The Jerbian government will honor the contract
terms as drafted - Our operations will not disrupt tourist industry
23Summary Thoughts
- Extension of R-10 license is a low risk option
for both parties - Team Nomad has become a proven steward of the
Jerbian economy and environment and trusted
partner - We look forward to continuing our investment in
the Jerbian economy and people - Long live King Iwera Mumu!