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Nomad Opportunities in Jerbia

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Title: Nomad Opportunities in Jerbia


1
Nomad Opportunities in Jerbia
  • Team Generator

2
Recommendations
  • Aggressively seek contract extension for License
    R-10 (494M of Value)
  • Existing fields with infill drilling 242
    Million (J 109M, K 63M, L 69M)
  • Moose Newt with infill drilling (204)
  • Prospect fields (48M)
  • Pursue Moose Newt with Extension with Infilling
  • Moose 109M with 30 / bbl oil
  • Moose 302M with internal oil price estimates
  • Do Not Pursue Moose Development without Extension
    (3.6M), unless
  • Infill drilling is possible
  • Arent responsible for well capping in 2012
  • Capital constraint does not suggest other
    projects
  • Deciding does not jeopardize chance of extension
    (Jerbia claims residual)
  • Comfortable with oil price estimate above 30 /
    bbl (breakeven below 31 / bbl)
  • Strategic Considerations
  • 30 / bbl Brent Crude is too conservative
  • Compared to Long Term Brent Crude forecasts
    futures

3
R-10 Renewal Benefits Existing Fields
  • Infill drilling is attractive regardless of
    contract status (242M)
  • Financial gain from two sources
  • Additional revenue from Jerbian Light Crude
    (60.7 Million BBLs)
  • Increased tax shields resulting from a larger
    asset base to be depreciated (Current Base
    530M, Contract Extension Base 780M)

4
R-10 Renewal Benefits Moose Newt Fields
Note Infill assumes 12M for a 8 production gain
5
R-10 Renewal Benefits Prospective Fields
  • At least 4 prospective fields have been
    identified in geographical territory under the
    R-10 license, nicknamed Wolf, Caribou,
    Marmot, and Panther
  • Additional NPV of 48 million anticipated from
    prospect fields
  • Explore prospective wells only if the license is
    renewed
  • Begin when Newts appraisal phase is over to
    maximize production
  • 3-Step decision tree for NPV calculation initial
    exploration, appraisal, and production
  • Staggered start of one year between projects
    (creating a window of 10-14 years to produce oil
    before the license runs out in 2027)
  • The size of the new discoveries will be key
    drivers in any future negotiation for license
    renewals beyond 2027

6
Risks and Risk Mitigation Strategies
  • Salvage value of equipment
  • Convey project uncertainty to Government partner
  • Evaluate increased near-term production and asset
    transferability
  • Partner Participation
  • Identify potential replacements in advance of
    go/no-go decision
  • Government stability
  • Remain neutral in internal political matters
  • Disruption to existing Jerbian industries
  • Use known construction firms and identify risks
    of expanded production in advance
  • Nationalization Tax / Royalties changed
  • Negotiate lagged payments align profit
    incentives
  • Typhoons / natural disasters
  • Share design and management best practices with
    existing facilities

7
Brent Crude Price Forecast (/bbl)
Source Energy Information Agency
(www.eia.doe.gov) and inflationdata.com
(http//inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate
/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp)
8
Recommended Priorities
  • First Priority
  • Renewal of the R-10 Contract
  • Refining capabilities and Ethanol
  • Good citizen programs
  • Consider competition / alternatives
  • Infilling drilling in the Existing 3 Fields
  • Development of the Moose field
  • Second Priority
  • Development of the Newt field
  • Further exploration and development in R-10
  • Third Priority
  • Evaluate new plots in Jerbia to leverage
    infrastructure
  • Ongoing risk mitigation
  • Evaluate impact of increased Jerbian production
    on transport costs

9
Appendix
10
Implications of Crude Oil Forecasts
  • Estimate is below futures contracts for 5yrs
  • Suggest overvalued futures contracts
  • Not an Arbitrage Opportunity
  • Different forecast periods
  • Low level of estimate certainty
  • Better profit opportunities in core business

11
R-10 Renewal Benefits Existing Fields
  • Continued exploitation of existing fields with
    infill drilling (242M)
  • Financial gain the result of two primary sources
  • Additional revenue from Jerbian Light Crude (60.7
    Million BBLs)
  • Increased tax shields resulting from a larger
    asset base to be depreciated (Current Base
    530M, Contract Extension Base 780M)

12
R-10 Renewal Benefits Existing Fields (Erik
Prices)
  • Continued exploitation of existing fields with
    infill drilling (389M)
  • Financial gain the result of two primary sources
  • Additional revenue from Jerbian Light Crude (60.7
    Million BBLs)
  • Increased tax shields resulting from a larger
    asset base to be depreciated (Current Base
    530M, Contract Extension Base 780M)

13
R-10 Renewal Benefits Moose Newt Fields (30
Price / bbl)
Note Infill assumes 12M for a 8 production gain
14
R-10 Renewal Benefits Moose Newt Fields
(Forecasted Price / bbl)
Note Infill assumes 12M for a 8 production gain
15
Strategic Considerations
  • Price Forecast Sensitivity
  • 30 probably too conservative
  • Jerbian alternatives to Nomad Team
  • Competitors
  • National Oil Company
  • Inflation and Exchange Rates
  • PPP should hold for Long-Term Jerbia relationship

16
Supporting the Advancement of all Jerbians
  • Team R-10, consisting of Nomad Petroleum,
    Luxpetrol, and Speck Oil
  • Translations in French and Jerbian

17
Agenda
  • History of Jerbia and Team R-10 Partnership
  • Vision for Future Collaboration
  • Desirable License Extension Opportunity
  • Terms of Proposed License Extension
  • Value of Choosing Nomad as Service Provider

18
History of our Partnership
  • Long and successful history of working with our
    Jerbian partners
  • 1994 Discovered the Jackal field
  • Koala 2nd major field discovery
  • Leopard Recent continuance of success
  • Has provided 642M (?16.2B) to Jerbia in Royalty
    revenues
  • Has provided 2.0B (?50.0B) to Jerbia in Taxes
  • Oil from fields developed by Team R-10 is
    equivalent to 3.9 of GDP and 16 of total
    Jerbian oil produced

19
Opportunities for Future Growth
  • Moose Field
  • Tax Royalties of 386M (?14.6B) over the
    license life
  • Newt Field
  • Tax Royalties of 443M (?6.2B) over the license
    life
  • Continued exploration of the R-10 area
  • 4 prospect Fields

20
Proposed R-10 License Renewal Terms
  • Contract Terms
  • Nomad is prepared to bid 340M for rights to
    explore and develop the R-10 area
  • Assumes 20 discount rate
  • 15 for shareholder required returns 5 for
    additional risk of operating
  • Payment in installments, ½ at contract signing
    and ½ at commencement of contract
  • Portion of fee to be invested in domestic
    refining capacity
  • Anticipated product cost savings offset license
    payments
  • Same royalty structure as existing license
  • Commitments to Jerbia
  • Possible Refinery / Ethanol plant
  • Training for national workers and community work
  • Operational skill and safety
  • Environmental Protection
  • Commitments from Jerbia
  • Honor contract terms
  • Consistent application of Royalty / Tax
    regulation

21
Benefits of License Renewal to Jerbia
  • Tax Royalty Revenue (2013-2027, non-prospect
    fields)
  • Taxes 1,222M (?30,550)
  • Royalties 585M (?14,625)
  • Employment
  • Training and employment for additional Jerbian
    citizens and businesses
  • Refinery Addition
  • Reduce cost of finished product (shipping costs)
  • Boost domestic sugarcane industry with Ethanol
    facility
  • Corporate Citizenship
  • Environmental and Safety benefit

22
Bid Justification Scope of Work
  • Team R-10 has experience in Jerbian fields and
    has the know-how to return maximum benefits to
    Jerbia
  • Our bid is based on the assumption that Team R-10
    will
  • Fully develop Moose and Newt fields
  • Infill existing fields
  • Prospect unexplored regions of R-10
  • Continue partnership with existing partners
  • The Jerbian government will honor the contract
    terms as drafted
  • Our operations will not disrupt tourist industry

23
Summary Thoughts
  • Extension of R-10 license is a low risk option
    for both parties
  • Team Nomad has become a proven steward of the
    Jerbian economy and environment and trusted
    partner
  • We look forward to continuing our investment in
    the Jerbian economy and people
  • Long live King Iwera Mumu!
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