Collective Security in Space: An Australian Perspective

1
Collective Security in SpaceAn Australian
Perspective

• Talk to Collective Security in Space Conference
• Tokyo, Japan
• 23 April 2007
• Brett Biddington
• Disclaimer Views expressed in this talk are
  personal and
• are neither endorsed by nor commit Cisco to any
  liability or
• obligation.

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Introducing me

• 1970s BA(Hons) politics (LaTrobe Uni)
• diplomat
• university lecturer
• 1980-2002 RAAF
• intelligence
• security
• capability development (2bn portfolio of
  projects with associated RD sponsorship)
• Nov 2002 joined Cisco internet in space
• 1 of a team of 15 world-wide
• Canberra-based

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Agenda

• Introduction
• A lesson from World War 2
• Some requisites for cooperation
• Australias involvement in Space
• 4 Key questions
• The limits of influence Australia and the
  Chinese Test
• A breeze for change

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A lesson from WW 2

• Tatuo Kawai, Japanese Ambassador to Australia,
  Mar 1941 Aug 1942
• John Curtin, Prime Minister of Australia, 1941
  1945
• Basic understandings
• 1. That Australia was a sovereign nation that
  needed to shed its remaining colonial vestiges
• 2. That Australias long term security lay with a
  close and enduring relationship with the United
  States as the emergent great power in the Pacific
• 3. That Japan, had legitimate cause for complaint
  because it had denied access to raw materials and
  markets.

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Timeline

• 7 Dec 1941 Pearl Harbour
• 15 Feb 1942 Fall of Singapore
• 19 Feb 1942 Darwin was bombed (for the first of
  64 times)
• 7-10 May 1942 Battle of the Coral Sea
• 31 May 1942 Midget submarines attack Sydney
  Harbour (3 boats, all lost, 4 bodies
  recovered, the remaining boat was recently
  discovered north of Sydney and is now a
  designated War Grave)
• 4 June Battle of Midway

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Question

• What has any of this to do with Asian
  Perspectives on Acceptable Approaches to
  Collective Security in Space?
• Answer Quite a lot!

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Some Requisites

• institutions to provide continuity and context
• competent people, who have a healthy respect for
  each other, and who have a sound appreciation of
  the others point of view
• opportunities for these people to meet in order
  that they can share experiences, talk about the
  mundane and build trust
• mechanisms for operational cooperation rules
  of the road (not unlike the Vienna or Hague
  conventions) that are actually put into effect
• real determination by national leaders, beyond
  the rhetoric, to collaborate and cooperate and
  the flexibility to do so
• real projects which transcend national and other
  institutional boundaries and which provide
  opportunities to build friendships, trust and
  related collaborative behaviours.

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Four Emerging Policy Challenges

• 1. militarisation and weaponisation
• 2. spectrum allocation and management
• 3. service guarantees in an imperfect market for
  highly assured access to space utilities
  including earth observation, communications,
  navigation and timing services
• 4. monitoring and managing the near space
  environment

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Space Implicit in Australian National Strategy
(1)

• Late 40s 60s
• Woomera UK and European launch programs
• nuclear tests
• 1960s programs terminated
• 1960s present host US and other nation ground
  stations
• Australia contributes 2 of the worlds wealth
  at best a small player

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Space Implicit in Australian National Strategy
(2)

• Australia has gained for the price of wise
  diplomacy, peppercorn rentals and modest
  investment has gained enormous benefits from
  space.

Personal view Australia needs to and soon will
invest in new equities
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Militarisation and weaponisation

• Australia is a player like it or not
• missile defence 3 air warfare destroyers
• over-the-horizon radar
• host of US facilities

Tokyo
Beijing
Cooperation/competition??
Commerce
Washington
Security
Canberra - today cake and eat it too approach
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Spectrum Allocation and Management

• Global allocations space communications, air
  traffic management, marine, global SAR very
  difficult
• Governments need to balance needs for national
  security vs desire to make money by licensing
  spectrum
• ITU venerable institution but too slow

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Service Guarantees for Space Utilities

• Militarisation/weaponisation question may be the
  most urgent
• BUT
• Resolving this question may be the most
  important and may provide the common cause
  needed by which the harder national security
  issues may be addressed.
• Climate change and global warming affects us all
  eg. more extreme weather events, rising sea
  levels essential concerns to all nations in SE
  Asia and Oceania
• The Antarctic Treaty and wider Antarctic
  management regime may provide a useful model.

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Monitoring and managing the near space environment

• Space surveillance and space situational
  awareness an area ripe for international
  cooperation
• Common baseline from which all space faring
  nations can proceed with confidence
• PILOT project at Dome C in Antarctica
  possibility to make a low cost regional
  contribution (dual use optical telescope)

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The Australian response to the Chinese ASAT test

• Some interesting questions
• 1. Why did Australia call in the Ambassador at
  all?
• 2. What did Australia seek to achieve by calling
  in the Ambassador?
• 3. How did Australia propose to measure the
  impact or the effect of its expression of
  displeasure?
• Turning this around, there are some further
  questions we might usefully ask
• 1. What did the Ambassador write in her account
  of the dressing down to Beijing?
• 2. Has Chinese policy and behaviour been
  influenced one iota by the Ambassador having been
  called in? If so, how? If not, why not?
• 3. As a result of the Ambassadors dressing down,
  is China more or less likely to conduct further
  ASAT tests?

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Breeze for Change

• Defence investment
• More people
• Missile Defence
• 4-6bn over next 10 years for space segment and
  apps.
• Network Centric Warfare
• Drought 10bn water plan
• First Space Science Decadal Plan
• Prediction GEO and LEOs within the next decade
• Policy and Governance
• Chapman Report
• Kokoda Study

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The Last Word

• Now only the stars are neutral
• John Curtin 8 Dec 1941
• Im afraid it has gone too far the momentum is
  too great. Tatuo Kawai Nov 1941
• space embraces us all

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• Thank you
• bbidding_at_cisco.com