Multilateral arms control and nuclear disarmament

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Multilateral arms control and nuclear
disarmament
Historical Overview.
Dr Patricia M. Lewis
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Alphabet Soup of Arms Control
PTBT, OST, Tlatelolco, NPT, ABM, SALT, TTBT,
PNET, Rarotonga, INF, START, PNIs, Pelindaba,
CTBT, SORT, NSG, Zanggar, IAEA mmmm delicious
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Some History

• Those who cannot remember the past are condemned
  to repeat it.
• The Life of Reason
• (1905-1906 )
• George Santayana

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Disarmament in the Inter-World War period

• No trust, no verification
• Worst fears realised
• No credibility in disarmament
• League of Nations view of disarmament and
  security discredited (debate still rages today)
• CBW no use emphasis

David Lloyd George, Georges Clemenceau and
Woodrow Wilson arrive at the Versailles Peace
Conference 1919  (BBC archive)
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Disarmament and arms control post World War II

• Nuclear weapons changed the scene
• Balance of power versus proliferation concerns
• Constant tension of haves vs have-nots
• Tension conventional vs WMD
• Trust but verify?????
• CBW No use through no possession

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The United Nations

• Core Function Prevent Conflict Maintain
  International Peace and Security (Charter Article
  1)
• Was set up to manage and broker power
• The UN is all its 192 Member States

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The United Nations General Assembly
1946 First UNGA Resolution the elimination from
national armaments of atomic weapons and of all
other major weapons adaptable to mass
destruction. Also established the UN Atomic
Energy Commission 1946-49 Eventually became the
IAEA in 1957
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UN Security Council

• 15 members, 5 permanent
• Primary responsibility for maintenance of
  International Peace and Security
• Settlement, Sanctions, Action
• Military Staff Committee
• Subsidiary Bodies

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The Conference on Disarmament

• NOT a UN Body
• 65 Members
• Serviced by UN, Housed by UN
• Operates under different rules
• Treaty-making body
• Agenda Set in 1978

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• Every gun that is made, every warship launched,
  every rocket fired, signifies in a final sense, a
  theft from those who hunger and are not fed, from
  those who are cold and are not clothed. The world
  in arms is not spending money alone. It is
  spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of
  its scientists, the hopes of its children.

Dwight D. Eisenhower, President of the United
States, 16 April 1953
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Beginnings of NPT

• 1961 Irelands General Assembly resolution
• "Prevention of the Wider Dissemination of Nuclear
  Weapons"
• called for measures to prevent the spread of
  nuclear weapon technology to additional states
• all countries to desist from acquiring or
  transferring nuclear weapons.
• (Frank Aiken and Conor Cruise OBrien)

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1965 UNGA Resolution 2028

• NPT governing principles
• NWS and NNWS must be obligated not to engage in
  any type of nuclear-weapon proliferation
• Appropriate balance between the obligations
  undertaken by the NWS and the NNWS
• The Treaty should be a step toward nuclear
  disarmament, as well as toward general and
  complete disarmament
• Practical provisions to ensure the Treaty's
  effectiveness and
• Nuclear-weapon-free zones should not be curtailed
  in any way under the Treaty.

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The Non-Proliferation Treaty The NPT
Preamble and 11 Articles

• No transfer to any recipient whatsoever
• No receiving any transfer from any transferor
  whatsoever
• Safeguards
• Peaceful Uses inalienable right, in
  conformity with Articles 1 and 2
• Negotiations in good faith on cessation of the
  nuclear arms race nuclear disarmament.
• NW Free Zones
• Review and amendments
• 10. Withdrawal and extension

U.S. Ambassador Liewellyn E. Thompson, left,
signs the treaty in Moscow with Soviet Foreign
Minister Andrei A. Gromyko.
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Range of Nuclear Disarmament Treaties 1963-1996
1985 Rarotonga 1987 INF 1991 START-I 1991
PNIs 1993 START-II 1995 Bangkok 1996
Pelindaba 1996 CTBT 2002 SORT 2006 CANWFZ Plus
Export controls (NSG, Zangger Committee)and IAEA
safeguards

• 1963 PTBT
• 1967 OST
• 1968 Tlatelolco
• 1968 NPT
• 1971 Seabed
• 1972 ABM
• 1972 SALT-I
• 1974 TTBT
• 1959 Antarctic
• 1976 PNET
• 1979 SALT-II
• Red Global in scope
• Violet Regional
• Black Bilateral

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NPT Indefinite Extension 1995

• Package deal
• Decision I Strengthened review process
• Decision II Principles and objectives for
  nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament,
  including a Program of Action for implementing
  Article VI
• Decision III Indefinite extension
• Resolution on the Middle East
• ultimate goal of the complete elimination of
  nuclear weapons
• CTBT no later than 1996FMCT negotiations

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CTBT 1996

• Bans all nuclear weapons test explosions
• Has a global, powerful verification regime
• Entry into Force conditions require 44 named
  countries
• Not yet entered into force (US Senate decision
  not to ratify plus India, Pakistan, DPRK etc etc)

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NPT Review 2000

• Unequivocal undertaking to accomplish the total
  elimination of nuclear arsenals
• Early entry into force of the CTBT
• Moratorium on nuclear-weapon-test explosions
  pending CTBT
• CD negotiations on treaty banning the production
  of fissile material for nuclear weapons within
  five years
• CD nuclear disarmament body
• Irreversibility to disarmament, arms control and
  reduction

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NPT 2000 cont

• Entry into force of START II and the conclusion
  of START III while preserving and strengthening
  the ABM
• Completion and implementation of the
  US/Russia/IAEA Trilateral Initiative
• Steps by all NWS efforts to reduce their
  nuclear arsenals unilaterally increased
  transparency reduction of non-strategic weapons
  measures to reduce operational status of nuclear
  weapons diminishing role for nuclear weapons in
  security policies engagement of all NWS in the
  process of elimination of nuclear weapons
• All NWS to place fissile material under
  international verification
• Reaffirmation of ultimate objective of general
  and complete disarmament under effective
  international control
• Regular reporting within the framework of the
  strengthened review process (accountability)
• Further development of the verification
  capabilities to provide assurance of compliance
  with nuclear disarmament agreements

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NPT 2005

• No Agreed Document
• US and France would not allow specific mention of
  13 Steps from 2000
• Egypt thus blocked adoption of Agenda
• Too short a time to discuss and find agreement

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CD Paralysis

• No Treaty since CTBT in 1996
• No Agreement even to begin (except for 3 weeks in
  August 1998)
• Deep divisions India, Pakistan and Israel
• US and China

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NPT 2010?

• Nuclear Disarmament is at the core of the matter
• New US Administration
• UK-Norway Initiative
• Four US Statesmen Initiative
• New bargain? New Hope?