Failures - why did these efforts fail?

1
Failures - why did these efforts fail?

• AZ, FL voting machines
• Quadraphonic sound - LPs AND CDs
• http//www.dantiques.com/quad.htm
• Blockbuster Video, Eastman Kodak,
• Low-fat fast food / Non-nicotine cigarettes
• Commercials in movie theaters
• IBM PC Jr with wireless keyboard
• http//www.pcworld.com/article/id,125772-page,4/ar
  ticle.html
• http//www.digibarn.com/collections/devices/pcjr-c
  hicklet-keyboard/index.html
• 1970s-era US compact cars
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vrcNeorjXMrE
• http//www.motherjones.com/news/feature/1977/09/do
  wie.html

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• Pre-Project Testing

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6 Questions often asked in Pre Project Testing

• Is it the right system?
• Will it solve the right problem?
• It is possible to over-automate - some systems
  dont justify their costs.
• People problems do not need, and will not
  respond to technological solutions.
• If it aint broke, dont go broke fixing it.

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The Technology Scale

• Animal
• Manual
• Mechanical Tension/Movement
• Hydraulic Pressure
• Pneumatic Pressure
• Mechanical Engine
• Electrical Magnetic - switch closure

• Electrical Assist - amplification
• Electrical Control - stimulus and response
• Computational Assist
• Computational Origination

5
Purpose

• Is there a business or economic justification for
  the project?
• Is there a societal justification?
• Is there an academic justification?
• Is there majority or managerial support?

6
Preparation and Coverage

• Is an adequate / optimal team available?
• Is an adequate / optimal development environment
  possible?
• Is the solution technology achievable?
• Is there adequate financial backing?
• Wheres the contingency?

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Question 2

• What is at risk?
• Systems for which failure disaster are a poor
  bet.
• Are partial results better than nothing?
• Is intermittent operation better than nothing?
• Is a subset of full function available upon
  failure? Is the subset better than nothing?

8

• The first atomic test
• The observers set up betting pools on the results
  of the test. Predictions ranged from zero (a
  complete dud) to 18 kilotons of TNT (predicted by
  physicist I. I. Rabi, who won the bet), to
  destruction of the state of New Mexico, to
  ignition of the atmosphere and incineration of
  the entire planet. This last result had been
  calculated to be almost impossible, although for
  a while it caused some of the scientists some
  anxiety.
• James Hershberg (1993), James B. Conant Harvard
  to Hiroshima and the Making of the Nuclear Age.
  948 pp. ISBN 0-394-57966-6 p. 233

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Chance of Success vs.Effect of Failure

• Has the path of least resistance been chosen? -
  All factors.
• Is a dissimilar backup system required?
• Is a failed system worse than not implementing
  the system?
• Will a competitive system threaten your delivery?

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Question 3

• How big and complex will it have to be?
• Smaller, simpler software projects have distinct
  advantages over large, complex ones.

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Blackout of 2003 Was Result of Domino Effect

• In August 2003, a massive blackout left more than
  60 million customers in the U.S. and Canada
  without electricity. The cause? Some say a
  software bug in an Ohio utility's system was to
  blame.
• The blackout started in Ohio, when fallen trees
  took down power lines managed by Akron,
  Ohio-based FirstEnergy Corp. But eSarcasm's Tynan
  said that, because a critical alarm did not
  sound, the problem spread to other parts of the
  country.
• "A computer cascade. That's the reason all those
  failures happened," he said.
• Testifying before Congress, Pete Burg, the chief
  executive of FirstEnergy, said, "We strongly
  believe that such a widespread loss of power
  could only result from a combination of events,
  not from a few isolated events."
• But in an interview with InformationWeek, Stan
  Johnson, manager of infrastructure security at
  the North American Electric Reliability Council,
  said that if the alarm had gone off as planned,
  the blackout could have been contained.
• "It didn't cause the power to go off, but it was
  a big contributor to the lack of response by
  FirstEnergy," Johnson said.
• http//abcnews.go.com/Technology/AheadoftheCurve/t
  op-technololgy-disasters-decade-lost-data-computer
  -hacks

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Feasibility

• Can a SW Requirements Spec be written to solve
  the problem at hand?
• Can finances support 2x the project cost?
• Can the customer support 2x the project schedule?
• Can the delivery environment support the
  solution?
• Where does the best solution fall on a technology
  scale?

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Question 4

• How will it fit into the existing universe?
• The nondigital portions of a system dwell in the
  real world, whose behavior is constrained by
  physical laws. Keeping much of the system
  nondigital may yield a more predictable system.

14
Delivery Culture

• Customer support/catalyst and help
• Education, training required of users
• Acceptance
• Satisfaction
• Gratitude

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Development Culture

• Chance of turnover, burnout limit
• Team or management resistance to optimal
  development scheme
• Management support/catalyst and help
• Team culture / parallel development
• Personalities

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Question 5

• What will it require of its users?
• It is inhumane to use people as passive
  monitors, and then require them to intervene
  suddenly when things go astray. We dont improve
  the situation when we turn airline pilots or
  nuclear power plant operators into scapegoats for
  bad system design.

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The case of the loss of engine power

• In 1985, a China Airlines 747 suffered a slow
  loss of power from its outer right engine. This
  would have caused the plane to yaw to the right,
  but the autopilot compensated, until it finally
  reached the limit of its compensatory abilities
  and could no longer keep the plane stable. At
  that point, the crew did not have enough time to
  determine the cause of the problem and to take
  action the plane rolled and went into a vertical
  dive of 31,500 feet before it could be recovered.
  The aircraft was severely damaged and recovery
  was much in doubt
• (NTSB 1986 Wiener 1988).

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Question 6

• Will it require extensive security?
• Data wants to be free. People will find ways to
  get information.

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• In what has been called the largest credit card
  crime of all time, earlier this year, Heartland
  Payment Systems announced that hackers had broken
  into the computers it uses to process about 100
  million transactions each month for 175,000
  merchants.
• The hack was uncovered in January, after Visa and
  MasterCard notified Heartland about suspicious
  transactions. Heartland processes card payments
  for restaurants and other businesses.
• In August, three men were indicted by a grand
  jury on charges related to masterminding a scheme
  to steal more than 130 million credit and debit
  card numbers and personally identifying
  information from Heartland, 7-Eleven Inc. and
  other companies.
• According to Information Week, Heartland said in
  August that the breach cost the company 32
  million in legal fees, fines, settlements and
  forensics, so far.

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One Aspect - Market factors

• No advantage over existing brands (OS/2 Warp)
• http//www.guidebookgallery.org/ads/magazines/os2/
  os220b/pics/02
• Early adopter (Apple Newton)
• http//www.msu.edu/luckie/gallery/mp2000.htm
• Lack of interest (Tablet PC?)
• Changing standards (SONY Betamax)
• Lack of brand identity in image-driven category
  (Coleco Adam computers)
• http//www.vintage-computer.com/adam.shtml
• Ignorance of buyer behavior for product category
  (Remote Control Walkman)
• Mispositioning (Retail on the Internet, better
  than reality issue)
• Failed opportunity (Xerography)
• User Indignation VISTA, Segway, EA games, Sony
  DRM

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Unlikely successes - passed Pre Project Testing

• Personal computers
• DVD players
• George Foreman Grill
• http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Foreman_Grill
• Cable TV
• Expensive water
• SUVs
• Brand names, prominent on clothes
• Designer house paint
• http//www.ralphlaurenhome.com/products/paint/
• Bose Wave Radio
• http//www99.epinions.com/reviews/Bose_Wave_Radio_
  II
• 150 sneakers

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Sure things

• Digital photography
• Fuel efficient cars
• Cell phones
• GPS
• Debit/Cards
• Remotes - for everything
• Mp3 players and digital music delivery

• Digital movie/TV delivery - broadband is
  replacing cable
• eBooks
• iPads vs. Tablet PCs
• - why? http//news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20018717
  -37.html
• ?