Integrated Risk Reduction of Informationbased Infrastructure Systems

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Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based
Infrastructure Systems
Expert System Support of Situation Assessment
and Decision Making
Hermann Dellwing

• IRRIIS - FP6-2005IST-4
• EC - LOGO

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Goal
Mitigate the danger of blackouts in communication
and power supply networks

• support of the strategic assessment of the
  current situation taking into account the
  dependency / interdependency structure
• Identified risks can be accepted or not with
  regard to the goal ?

• support of the strategic decision making based
  on the assessment of the current situation

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Initial Situation (Example)
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Development of the Events without
unknown
events are under control
Line of no Return
events are not under control
uncontrolled drop of power supply
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Development of the Events with
known via rules of CRIPS
The situation remains under control
events are under control
Line of no Return
events are not under control
uncontrolled drop of power supply
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Functionality

• Maintenance by the user / administrator

• Database functionality

• Presentation of the assessed current situation

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Interfaces

• Interfaces to Information Systems

• Interfaces to Communication Systems

• Interfaces to Simulation and Analysis Tools

• Interfaces to Technical Systems

• Interfaces to Broadcasting Systems

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How does works

E-Lines EL11 Line Arno EL12 Line
Latium E-Stations ES11 Station Rom
ES12 Station Tiber ES13 Station
Apennine .. C-Stations KS11
Comm.-Backbone 1 KS21 Comm.-Station
Tiber .. Services communication KD11
Grid region Tiber KD12 Mobile Region
Tiber ... Critical situations K1
Station Tiber and is K2 Station
Apennin is ... Operator messages M1
AC of KS11out of work .. Decision options D1
Switch to EL2 D2 Switch to EL3 D3 Use EL4 D4
Dropping supply of San Marino
red out of work
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Method Expert System

• in many practical situations, however, there is
  no need of the whole efficiency of the
  resolution. Knowledge bases from the real world
  often only include restricted clauses, so-called
  horn clauses (S. Russel, P. Norvig
  Künstliche Intelligenz - Ein moderner Ansatz,
  Prentice Hall, 2004)

A1 ? A2 ? A3 ? ? An ? B
A1 ? A2 ? A3 ? ? An ? B
line 1 dropped ? line 2 endangered ? ?
Service 1 endangered
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Message and Benefits
The support of the strategic assessment and
decision making on LCCI can be modeled by horn
clauses and an expert system is the suitable
method
Very good relationship simplicity efficiency