WTO Public Symposium

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• WTO Public Symposium
• Fulfilling the Doha Development Agenda Key
  Issues for developing countries
• 18 June 2003

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FULFILLING THE DOHA DEVELOPMENT AGENDA WHY IT
MATTERS

•  
• Global trading system failing to bring benefits
  it could to developing countries and to poor
  people.
•  
• Africas share of world trade halved between 1980
  and 1999.
•  
• Share of 49 poorest countries fell from 0.8 to
  0.4 over same period.

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WHY THE DDA MATTERS

•   
• DDA sets out bold agenda, putting development at
  centre of multilateral trade negotiations.
•  
• First step toward creating a fairer set of rules
  to govern international trade.
•  
• Includes commitments to
•  
• Reduce agricultural trade barriers
• Improve non-agricultural market access
• Make SDT provisions more effective
• Improve rules on TRIPS/ public health and
  anti-dumping

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WHY THE DDA MATTERS

•  
• World Bank estimates eliminating all barriers to
  trade in goods would generate extra US 250bn
  620bn in global income. Up to half to developing
  countries. This could lift 300 million out of
  poverty by 2015.
•  
• But trade and trade liberalisation alone not
  enough. Need pro-poor policies, investment in
  health and education, greater access by poor to
  productive assets, stronger institutions,
  infrastructure and CB to develop supply side.

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WHY THE DDA MATTERS

•  
• Boost to multilateralism and global economy.
  Annual growth in world trade barely 2 in 2002
  (compared to 7 annual average in 1990s).
•   
• Risks of failure weakening of multilateral
  rules based system and proliferation of bilateral
  and regional agreements that could leave poorer
  countries more exposed.

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KEY ISSUES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

•  AGRICULTURE
•  
• Agricultural Market Access is the single biggest
  development issue in the DDA.
•  
• Agriculture accounts for about 27 of GDP and
  export earnings in developing countries as a
  whole and 50 of employment.
•  
• Agricultural markets are among the most heavily
  protected For OECD countries the average bound
  tariff is 60 (12 times the rate for industrial
  products).
•  
• OECD spend 310bn every year on agricultural
  support roughly same as sub-Saharan Africas
  GDP. Subsidies to farmers (US106bn EU, 95bn US
  and 59bn Japan in 2001) create unfair
  competition for poorer producers in domestic and
  third markets.
•  
• Special Safeguard Mechanism important and
  special products subject to minimal tariff
  reductions to protect food security.

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KEY ISSUES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

• TRIPS/Public Health
•  
• Agreement at Doha on need to ensure flexibility
  in implementing TRIPs, so countries without
  manufacturing capacity can use compulsory
  licensing to get access to affordable drugs.
•  
• Critical to meet health needs of millions
  suffering from diseases like HIV/AIDS, malaria,
  TB.
•  

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KEY ISSUES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

• Special Differential Treatment
•  
• Making SDT provisions more effective, including
  through longer periods to implement WTO rules,
  lower tariff reductions (critical where
  government budgets heavily dependent on tariff
  income).
• NAMA
•  
• Increased market access for textiles, clothing
  and footwear. Estimated there are 27 million less
  jobs in developing countries because of quotas
  tariffs.

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KEY ISSUES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

• Services
• Significant interest in Mode 4 (temporary
  movement of workers).
•  
• Estimated that an increase in developed country
  quotas for skilled and unskilled temporary labour
  equivalent to just 3 of their labour forces
  would create increase in global economic welfare
  1.5 times greater than gains from liberalisation
  of all remaining trade restrictions.
•  
• Trade Related Capacity Building
•  
• Delivery on commitments.

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PROGRESS SO FAR

• Least progress on the issues that matter most to
• developing countries
•  
• Agriculture Missed deadlines on modalities for
  new Agriculture agreement. Awaiting EU CAP
  reform.
•  
• TRIPS/public health Every member except US able
  to sign up in December to compromise text. No
  agreement yet.
•  
• SDT Need agreement on substantial package of
  measures.
•  
• NAMA another missed deadline.

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OBSTACLES

• Political will to take on powerful domestic
  interest groups in OECD (agricultural reform
  TRIPS/public health and in developing countries
  that stand to gain from increased South-South
  trade too.
•  
• More WTO members more significant players with
  divergent interests (e.g. Cairns Group versus
  those defending ACP preferences).
•  
• Polarised positions on extent of liberalisation
  (agriculture and NAMA).
•  
• Lack of progress on key issues (e.g. reduction of
  trade distorting OECD agricultural subsidies)
  slowing down progress on other issues (NAMA,
  Services, Singapore issues).

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OBSTACLES

•  
• Breadth of the round and ambitious timetable.
•  
• Serious capacity constraints especially of poorer
  countries to participate meaningfully in the
  negotiations. Lack of analysis and input from
  capitals (e.g. on Service sectors).
•  
• Political events (e.g. US 2004 elections) could
  complicate achievement of DDA deadline.
•  

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WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN BEFORE CANCUN

• Cancun less than 100 days away.
•  
• Political leadership difficult decisions to
  give new momentum to the DDA.
•  
• EU member states need to reach agreement on CAP
  reform (Fischler proposals on decoupling
  agricultural support from production).
•  
• Secure US support for TRIPS/public health
  December 16 text. Possibly with reassurances to
  pharmaceutical industry on recourse to DSU in
  clear cases of abuse and by developing country
  manufacturers.
•  

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WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN BEFORE CANCUN

• SDT Willingness of advanced developing
  countries to prioritise needs of poorest WTO
  members. Progress reached on substantial package
  of measures.
•  
• World leaders and opinion leaders need to
  champion the DDA.
•  
• Engagement with business and civil society.
•  
• More vocal NGO support on issues of most
  importance to developing countries. Ministers
  wont take tough political decisions if only hear
  critical voices.
•  
• Mini-ministerial/s help move negotiations forward.

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SUCCESS AT CANCUN

• Members to recommit to ambition of DDA.
•  
• Shared ownership to make it work.
•  
• Realistic expectations important step.
•  
• Learn from what worked at Doha and didnt at
  Seattle.
•  
• EU/US leadership that made difference at Doha.
  Greater convergence on key issues.
•  
• Preparation for Cancun so ministers have a
  manageable set of issues.
•  
• Reach some agreements to create new momentum.

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WORKING FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENT ROUND
BEYOND CANCUN

• Chairs of negotiations put forward proposals to
  seed process and build consensus.
•  
• Address concerns of potential losers from loss of
  preferential market access (ACP) research extent
  of problem IFIs, multilateral and bilateral
  donors give support to ease transition/diversifica
  tion.
•  
• Analytical and technical assistance to developing
  countries e.g. on Services negotiations
  commitments in individual agricultural schedules.

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WORKING FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENT ROUND
BEYOND CANCUN

• Design of proposed framework agreements on new
  issues to address needs of developing countries
  (cost/benefit e.g. on trade facilitation).
•  
• New approach to SDT more tailored to helping
  individual countries at different stages of
  development adjust to specific rules and
  agreements.
•  
• Coordinated approach to Technical Assistance and
  Trade-related capacity building by donors through
  Integrated Framework.
•  

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WORKING FOR A SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENT ROUND BEYOND
CANCUN

• Address disconnect between Geneva-based trade
  negotiations and national economic development
  policies (PRSPs etc). Integration of trade and
  development needed to identify new opportunities,
  careful sequencing of reforms.
• Complementary pro-poor policies so trade
  contributes to Millennium Development Goals.
•  
• Democracies need to ratify agreements reached.
  Greater involvement of civil society and private
  sector in dialogue on trade and development.