Title: Edison Electric Institute Financial Conference November 69, 2005
1Edison Electric InstituteFinancial
ConferenceNovember 6-9, 2005
Allegheny Energy
2Forward-Looking Statements
In addition to historical information, this
presentation contains a number of
"forward-looking statements" as defined in the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Words such as anticipate, expect, project,
intend, plan, believe and words and terms of
similar substance used in connection with any
discussion of future plans, actions or events
identify forward-looking statements. These
include statements with respect to regulation
and the status of retail generation service
supply competition in states served by Allegheny
Energy's delivery business, Allegheny Power the
closing of various agreements financing plans
demand for energy and the cost and availability
of raw materials, including coal
provider-of-last resort and power supply
contracts results of litigation results of
operations internal controls and procedures
capital expenditures status and condition of
plants and equipment regulatory matters and
accounting issues. Forward-looking statements
involve estimates, expectations, and projections
and, as a result, are subject to risks and
uncertainties. There can be no assurance that
actual results will not materially differ from
expectations. Actual results have varied
materially and unpredictably from past
expectations. Factors that could cause actual
results to differ materially include, among
others, the following changes in the price of
power and fuel for electric generation general
economic and business conditions changes in
access to capital complications or other factors
that render it difficult or impossible to obtain
necessary lender consents or regulatory
authorizations on a timely basis environmental
regulations the results of regulatory
proceedings, including proceedings related to
rates changes in industry capacity, development,
and other activities by Allegheny's competitors
changes in the weather and other natural
phenomena changes in the underlying inputs and
assumptions, including market conditions used to
estimate the fair values of commodity contracts
changes in laws and regulations applicable to
Allegheny, its markets or its activities the
loss of any significant customers and suppliers
dependence on other electric transmission and gas
transportation systems and their constraints on
availability changes in PJM, including changes
to participants rules and tariffs the effect of
accounting policies issued periodically by
accounting standard-setting bodies and the
continuing effects of global instability,
terrorism and war. Additional risks and
uncertainties are identified and discussed in
Allegheny Energy's reports and registration
statements filed with the Securities and Exchange
Commission.
3Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This presentation includes non-GAAP financial
measures as defined in the Securities and
Exchange Commissions Regulation G. Where noted,
the presentation shows certain financial
information on an as adjusted basis, to exclude
the effect of certain items as described herein.
By presenting as adjusted results, management
intends to provide investors with a better
understanding of the core results and underlying
trends from which to consider past performance
and prospects for the future. Users of this
financial information should consider the types
of events and transactions for which adjustments
have been made. As adjusted information should
not be considered in isolation or viewed as a
substitute for, or superior to, net income or
other data prepared in accordance with GAAP as
measures of our operating performance or
liquidity. In addition, the as adjusted
information is not necessarily comparable to
similarly titled measures provided by other
companies. Pursuant to the requirements of
Regulation G, we have attached a table that
reconciles the non-GAAP financial measures in
this presentation to the most directly comparable
GAAP measures. The table is also available at
www.alleghenyenergy.com.
4Paul J. Evanson
- Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
5Allegheny Energy
AlleghenyEnergy
Generation Coal-fired, PJM 47.8 million MWH
Delivery 1.6 million customers, PA-MD-WV-VA-OH
12 months ended September 30, 2005
6Entering a Growth Phase
- Turnaround
- Restructured and
- reduced debt
- Strengthened financial reporting, internal
controls - Refocused on core business
- Launched high performance organization
- Returned to profitability
Growth
7Earnings Growth Drivers
- Reduce interest expense
- Decrease OM expense
- Improve plant availability
- Increase Pennsylvania POLR rates
- Transition to market-based rates
8Growth DriverReduce Interest Expense
- Goal reduce debt by 1.5 billion (Dec. 1, 2003
Dec. 31, 2005) - Achieved 1.9 billion (through Oct. 15, 2005)
- Potential future sources Ohio sale, other asset
sales, cash flow - Projected reduction in interest expense 65
million in 2006 - Includes tender offer for convertible trust
preferred securities.
9Growth DriverDecrease OM Expense
Target
700-750
Further decrease
10Growth Driver Improve Plant Availability
(supercritical units)
Proforma
Actual
2008 Goal
2005 Est.
Improvement of 100 million if goal achieved
Adjusted for extended outages at Hatfield,
Pleasants
11Achieving 91 Availability by 2008
Outage Rate (supercritical units)
24
22
18
17
17
15
9
Reduce planned outages
Reduce unplanned outages
12Growth Driver Increase Pennsylvania POLR Rates
Cumulative Increase in Pre-Tax Operating Income
millions estimates
Generation Rate per MWH
13Growth DriverTransition to Market-Based Rates
Generation Rates per MWH
Market Current
Assumption for 2006 Outlook
POLR Maryland, Ohio
14Growth DriverTransition to Market-Based Rates
2006 2009 State Maryland, Maryland Ohio MWH
transitioning 4.8 million 3.5 million to
market Increase in pre-tax income 90
million 60 million
Total 150 million
15Managing Risk and Limiting Exposure
- Managing regulatory/political risk
- Reducing SO2 emissions
- Contracting coal supply needs
16Exposure toSO2 Allowance Market
- Tons of SO2 Emitted
- in Excess of Allowances
2006 20,000 to 30,000 2007-2008 lt50,000
Average per year (estimates)
17Reducing SO2 Emissions Action Plan
18Coal Supply Under Contract
of POLR Requirements
of Total Requirements
19Coal Costs and Usage
Average Delivered Cost/Ton Existing contracts only
Increasing Coal Tonnage
- Currently burn 18 million tons/year
- Expect to burn over 19 million tons in 2006
20Transforming Allegheny Energy
- Financial
- Operational
- Environmental
- Risk profile
- Earnings growth
21Jeffrey D. Serkes
- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
22Improving Financial Results
Earnings per share diluted
As Adjusted
As Reported
(9 Months)
23Increasing Free Cash Flow ( millions)
Free Cash Flow (adjusted cash from operations net
of capital expenditures)
Cash from Operations
(9 months)
(9 months)
2004 excludes OVEC proceeds and California
contract escrow release. 2005 excludes costs for
St. Joes notes redemption and convertible trust
preferred securities tender offer.
24Achieve Investment Grade Rating Strengthening
the Balance Sheet
Debt Outstanding ( billions)
Equity Ratio
Sept. 2003
Sept. 2004
Sept. 2005
Sept. 2003
Sept. 2005
Sept. 2004
Target
25Achieve Investment Grade RatingImproving Credit
Statistics
Debt/EBITDA
EBITDA/Interest
based on adjusted EBITDA and adjusted interest
for 12-month periods
262006 Earnings GrowthKey Drivers
- CONTRIBUTION TO PRE-TAX INCOME
- ( millions estimates)
- Pennsylvania rates 55
- Maryland transition to market 55
- Ohio territory sale 35
- Market prices positive/negative
- Plant availability no impact
- Higher coal costs (80)
- SO2 allowance costs (25)
- Lower OM expense 20
- Lower interest expense 65
- Other factors positive/negative
- 2006 vs. 2005 as adjusted
27Allegheny Energy
28Supplemental Information
29Earnings (Loss) Per Share
- As Reported As Adjusted
- 2003 Q1 (0.46)
(0.32) - Q2 (1.82) (0.23)
- Q3 (0.40) 0.11
- Q4 (0.11) (0.14)
- Year (2.80) (0.37)
- 2004 Q1 0.25 (0.03)
- Q2 (0.31) (0.21)
- Q3 (2.40) 0.37
- Q4 0.48 0.22
- Year (1.83) 0.47
- 2005 Q1 0.29
0.39 - Q2 (0.12) 0.08
- Q3 0.21 0.45
- Year to date 0.38 0.90
30EBITDA
- millions As Reported As Adjusted
- 2003 Q1 77.6
92.9 - Q2 (203.5) 150.1
- Q3 117.3 225.3
- Q4 197.4 185.6
- Year 156.8 634.9
- 2004 Q1 247.8 175.5
- Q2 110.3 122.0
- Q3 243.2 243.2
- Q4 303.9 221.8
- Year 473.7 762.5
- 2005 Q1 261.3 261.3
- Q2 210.6 192.7
- Q3 254.7 274.2
- Year to date 726.5 728.1
31The Road to Recovery
Stock Price Performance100 Invested on July 1,
2003
Completed Wheatland sale
Announced Ohio sale
Completed tender offer
Completed convertible financing
Refinanced bank debt
Completed Mountaineer sale
Completed equity financing
Exited Western energy markets
Brought reporting up to date
PA rate proposal approved
Completed OVEC, Lincoln sales
10/28/2005
32Enhance Operating Performance
VISION To Be a Top Performing Utility by
Year-End 2007
Operational Excellence
Financial Performance
Customer Satisfaction
Environmental Stewardship
Shareholder Value
Engaged Employees
33Generation and MarketingOverview
- Capacity 9,611 MW
- Primarily base load coal-fired plants
- Predominantly in Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland
(PJM) region
Capacity
MWH Output
Gas 2
Gas 9
Hydro Oil 4
Hydro Oil 12
Coal 94
Coal 79
For year ended December 31, 2004
34 Low-Cost Generation Fleet
Allegheny has an advantaged dispatch in PJM PJM
Dispatch Cost (Ozone Season) /MWh
Oil Gas
Allegheny 951 MW
Coal
Allegheny 7,617MW
2005 Peak
Hydro
Nuclear
Allegheny 58 MW
2005 Average
Pumped Storage Allegheny 985 MW
Capacity in MW
Dispatch curve assumptions natural gas
delivered at approximately 9.00/mmBTU coal at
approximately 42.00/ton SO2 at 870/ton NOx at
2,765/ton. Expanded PJM including PJM
Traditional, PJM West, AEP, ComEd, DPL, DQE and
Virginia Power.
35Generation and MarketingPJM -- An Attractive
Market
- Worlds largest competitive power market
- 51 million people
- 700 million MWH of energy annually
- 160,000 MW of capacity
- Nations most liquid spot power market
- Model for FERCs proposed Standard Market Design
- Provides transactional flexibility contracts not
required
Expanded PJM includes PJM Traditional, PJM West,
AEP, ComEd, DPL, DQE and Virginia Power
36Only 15 of Coal Delivered by Rail
Coal Delivery Methods 2006
Rail 15
Barge 50
Truck 20
Conveyor 15
Note Some barge coal originates on short line
railroads.
37Delivery and ServicesOverview
Allegheny Power
West PennPower
Monongahela Power
Potomac Edison
- In 5 states (PA, WV, MD, VA, OH)
- 1.6 million electric customers
- Load growth 2.2 compounded annually (1994-2004)
38Delivery and Services Retail Revenue Mix, 2004
By State
By Customer Class
Other 1
Residential 43
Commercial 24
Industrial 32
39Delivery and Services Competitive Rates
Residential Rates /kWh as of January 1, 2005
National Average 9.15 /kWh
40Regulatory Timeline