Solar Power Potential with PRT

1
Solar Power Potential with PRT
Ron Swenson ATRA Santa Cruz 2006 November 18
2
The Elevator Speech

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

• Without solar, energy independence is pure
  rhetoric.
• Clintons New Generation Vehicle
• Arnolds Hydrogen Highway
• GMs Yellow Gas Cap
• Bushs Cellulosic Ethanol.
• Only solar energy will do the job.
• Solar is sufficient to power high capacity PRT --
  100 percent -- using only the systems 4 to 8
  right of way.

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
3
A Little Personal History

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
4
Objective

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

• To demonstrate that solar energy is an adequate
  oil substitute, and is in fact the only viable
  transport alternative.
• Context Collosal issues are forcing us to
  rethink our options
• Peak Oil will limit global supply of liquid
  fossil fuels.
• Global Warming will force out coal and uranium.
• Substitute BioFuels cannot achieve adequate
  scale.
• Social Equity will prevail against war for oil.
• Solution Solar PRT the only transport option
  that offers
• Politics Energy Independence
• Economics Quick Payback
• Science Good Energy Return on Energy Invested
  (ERoEI)
• Environment Carbon Divestment

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
5
Context Global Warming
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
6
Global Warming over the Past Millennium
Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory
Over the 20th century, energy consumption
increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the
fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and
increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.
7
Carbon Intensities for California and Selected
Countries
Tons CO2 per person
Tons of CO2 per Thousand 1995 US Dollars
8
Context Peak Oil

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
9
We know the peak is coming but what can we do
about it?

• Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?

10
American Consumers Do Understand
11
Context BioFuels
...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

12
Net Production of Biomass in the USA
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
13
The All-New DonCar!
www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport
14
There is no Silver Bullet.

• Why Silver in the first place?
• The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize that
  silver, like life, was precious and should not be
  wasted.
• Specific gravity of Pb 11.35
• Specific gravity of Ag 10.50

Ag
Ag
15
Context Social Equity

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
16
Swensons Law

• To avoid deprivation resulting from the
  exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity
  must employ conservation and renewable resource
  substitutes sufficient to match depletion.

www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson
17
Consequence of Delayed Investment
Net Energy Production
begin investment before decline
Begin investment during decline
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
18
Energy Independence

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
19
Non-Oil, Power Exporting
...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

• Countries(Sweden, Iceland..)
• Cities (Santa Cruz?)
• Colleges (UCSC?)
• Companies (ElectroRoof, 3 BOE/day)
• Citizens (You and I?)

But energy independence is an elusive goal.
To get a clue, lets go back to the future

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

20
Thomas Edison

• I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy.
  What a source of power! I hope we don't have to
  wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle
  that.
• (1847-1931)

www.ThomasEdison.com
21
Global Solar Energy Balance
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
22
120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
23
Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to
Produce the Total US Electrical Demand
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
24
PV The Growth Industry
Oil declines at 4/yr PV increases at 50/yr
Peak 5 10
15
www.ecotopia.com/ASES/SolarToday
25
The Solution Solar PRT
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
26
Solar on Rail
www.SolarEvolution.com/SkyTran
27
SkyTran Solar
Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added
power at stations
28
jPod Solar
www.jPods.com
29
Similar Solar Systems Exist
30
Economics
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
31
Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile
32
Santa Cruz Projected Growth in Travel
33
Calculate Passengers per Day
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
34
Compare Solar to Gasoline at 2.50/gallon
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
35
Science
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
36
Thermodynamics of Oil

• It depends
• Pennsylvania?
• Saudi Arabia?
• Off-shore?
• Plus
• Ravaged land/oceans
• Greenhouse gases
• Water contamination

And its getting worse
EROI  10
37
Thermodynamics of PV

• EROI 5 years
• Life 50 years

• Plus it can be bootstrapped

And its getting better
EROI  10?30 electric
38
Environment
39
Corn Cars Bean Buses?
40
Back to solid fuels?
A team of horses uses 10 tons of feed per year.
How much more would a tractor need?
41
Lessons from History!
The original buggy whip protest!
42
Electricity. Not exactly a new idea
It is ephemeral, like solar power.
Can you lift it?
See it?
Touch it?
A match made in heaven.
43
The Electric Rail
44
Solar PRT
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
45
Solarevolution
More at www.SolarEvolution.com
46
Additional Information
More about Global ConditionsMore about
California ConditionsMore about Santa Cruz
ConditionsMore about PRTMore HistoryMore about
EthanolMore about TeraWatts
47
More about Global Conditions Peak Oil
48
Projected Vehicle Ownership Growth
49
Consumption by Sector, USA
50
Wishful Thinking Energy Futures
51
Oil Market Paradigms
Conservation, new fuels, new technologies
Seven Sisters
OPEC manages market
Oil shocks
OPEC has to meet new demand
OPEC
OPEC
FSU
FSU
Non-OPEC - FSU
Non-OPEC - FSU
Used with permission by Peter Wells
52
Cumulative World Energy Investment by Energy Use
USD 16 Trillion Investment thru 2030 10
Trillion in Electric Power Plants
53
More about Global Conditions Global Warming
54
CO2 Reduction Target

55
Breakdown of CO2 Emissions
56
More about Global Conditions Conventional
Vehicle Perspective
57
Well-to-Wheel
Measuring the efficiency and emissionsof the
fuel/energy source
58
From Well-to-Wheel to LCA

59
LCA Example CO2 from Materials Production
kg CO2/kg
60
LCA Example CO2 from Vehicle Production
61
More about California Conditions
62
Regulations and fiscal policies can make a
difference
63
More about Santa Cruz Conditions
64
Santa Cruz Daily Travel Patterns
65
Master Transportation Study
66
Master Transportation Study
67
More about PRT
68
Freeway at Capacity
69
Vehicles Removed
70
PRT Passengers
71
PRT System
72
Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
73
More History
74
Lest we forget They did bring coals to
Newcastle.
75
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
76
The Horseless Carriage
77
From GridLock to Gas Lines
78
More about BioFuels
79
The BioFuel Myths and Facts

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
80
Reality or Public Relations?
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
If canal boats are supplanted by railroads,
serious unemployment will result
For a successful technology, reality must take
precedence over public relations, for Nature
cannot be fooled. Richard Feynman, Presidential
Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger
Accident Appendix F ? Personal observations on
the reliability of the Shuttle, June 6, 1986

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841

• not to mention the numerous farmers now employed
  in growing hay for horses.Boat builders would
  suffer and towline, whip, and harness makers
  would be left destitute. Martin van Buren,
  Governor of New York, April 1832...

...not to mention the numerous farmers now
employed in growing hay for horses. Van Buren
1832 8th President 1837-1841
81
US Agriculture Crop Areas
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
82
US Agriculture Crop Energy
Total crop energy 9.14 EJ (9quads)
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
83
More about TeraWatts
84
Solar Industry Response?

• Goals
• 50 US electricity by 2025 ?
• 200 gW by 2030 10
• How to get there?
• Federal government procurement 100 m/year
• RD investment 250 m/year by 2010
• Enact, modify, establish, boost, support,
  increase, strengthen, grow

Inconsistent
Inadequate
www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2
85
Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)
14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day
30 -- 60 Terawatts 450 900 MBOE/day
The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century Oil
21st Century Renewables
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
86
Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?

• Yes!
• Think TeraWatts

www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
87
Renewable Nations
white