23rd Annual Economic Outlook Conference

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Outlook for theSouth Carolina Economy
2008 Economic Outlook Conference December 3,
2008 Dr. Paulo GuimaraesMoore School of Business
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South Carolina Coincident Indicator
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S.C. Employment Growth
2007 2.3 increase 43,400 jobs added
2008 forecast 1.1 21,000 jobs added
2008 actual 0.2 4,500 jobs added
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Employment Growth by Sectors of Activity
2007/2008
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A look at the MSAsTotal Nonfarm Employment
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S.C. Unemployment Rate
2007 value 5.8 percent
2008 forecast 5.8 percent
2008 value Around 6.8 percent
2008 US rate 5.8 percent
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A look at the MSAsUnemployment Rate
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S.C. Real Retail Sales (m.a.)?
Steady growth Between 2004-2007
Flat since mid-2007
Sales Tax for FY07-08 down 6.3
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A look at the MSAsReal Retail Sales
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Growth Rate ofTotal Personal Income
2007 5.4 growth
2008 forecast 4.8 growth
2008 actual 4.7 growth
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South Carolina Leading Indicator
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Growth of Single FamilyHousing Permits
Single family housing permits reached 1995 levels
10 consecutive months of negative growth
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A look at the MSAsSingle Family Housing Permits
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Growth of UnemploymentInsurance Claims
Stable until 2007
Steadily increasing In the last 3 quarters
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Summing up

• The South Carolina was on the right track until
  December 2007
• Conditions deteriorated sharply in the second
  half of 2008
• The economy is likely to get worst in the
  short-term
• Unclear how the economic measures of the new
  Obama administration will affect South Carolina

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Outlook for 2009Total Employment

• In 2009
• decrease 1.1
• Loss of 22,000 jobs
• Largest drop
• Manufacturing -15,500
• Construction -9,500

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Outlook for 2009Unemployment Rate

• In 2009
• around 8.6
• may top 9
• Labor force
• increases will put
• upwards pressure on
• the unemployment rate

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Outlook for 2008Personal Income

• In 2009
• average growth
• around 3.3
• marginally above
• inflation

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Additional information available
at http//mooreschool.sc.edu/moore/research/ Ha
ppy Holidays Thank you!