Lewis H. Ziska, USDAARS

1
Climate Change, and Public Health the Botanical
Perspective.

• Lewis H. Ziska, USDA-ARS
• Thanks to
• Linda Ford, MD American Lung Association, Omaha,
  NE
• James Straka, PhD, Macalester College, St. Paul,
  MN
• David Frenz, MD, the Bethesda Clinic, St. Paul,
  MN
• Jonathan Patz, MD Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD
• Dennis Gebhard, Multidata Inc., St. Paul, MN
• Paul Epstein, MD, Harvard, Boston, MA

Maryland Department of Natural Resources,
February 19, 2009
2
Atmospheric CO2
So what if CO2 goes up?
3
I. An indirect effect of rising carbon dioxide
warmer temperatures.
No H2O and CO2? Surface temperature would be
18oC. With H2O and CO2? Surface temperature is
15oC.
4
H2O vs. CO2
Poles
Winter
latitude
Deserts
Equator
If water vapor is high, it will be the dominant
warming gas.little effect of CO2 If water vapor
is low, adding CO2 will increase the surface
temperature.
5
Greenland is melting
Greenland ice loss rate doubled in last 10 yrs
6
CO2, warming and public health.

• Changes in range of insect or rodent borne
  diseases.
• Changes in water or seafood borne diseases.
• Increasing ground-level ozone, and respiratory
  ailments.
• Contamination of drinking water due to excessive
  flooding.
• Heat-related deaths / fewer cold related.

7
So what if CO2 goes up?, Part II, direct impacts
Carbon dioxide is the source of carbon for
photosynthesis, and consequently for 99 of all
life.
CO2
Food, Glorious Food!
Nutrients, H2O
CO2 H2O light ? O2 organic C chemical
energy
8
Plants are Important.
Plants are necessary for the flow of energy and
carbon through ecosystems. 90 of all living
matter consists of plant life. With the
exception of a few subterranean organisms, if
plants did not exist, life would not exist.
Plant growth however is dependent on four
physical inputs. Any perturbation in these
inputs will alter all living systems.
People who imagined that life on earth consisted
of animals moving against a green background,
seriously misunderstood what they were seeing.
That green background was busily alive. Plants
grew, moved, twisted and turned, fighting for
resources and they interacted continuously
with animalsdiscouraging some with bark and
thorns, poisoning others, and feeding still
others with pollen and seeds. It was a complex,
dynamic processone which most people didnt
understand.
Michael Crichton, Page 86, Jurassic Park
9
But isnt more plant growth desirable?

• We are living in an increasingly lush
  environment of plants and animals as a result of
  the carbon dioxide increase. This is a wonderful
  and unexpected gift from the industrial
  revolution. WSJ

10
CO2 is a VERY smart molecule.
Green is not always good.
11
All life will be affected not only by
temperature, but by the increase in carbon
dioxide of and by itself.What are the
implications for Weed Biology? Specifically

• Crops and weeds
• Invasive weeds
• Public Health.

12
How can plants affect public health?Some direct
effects

• Allergies / Asthma
• Contact dermatitis
• Poison/Toxicology

13
1. CO2, plants and allergies
Principle Fall Allergen
35 million sufferers
Common ragweed.
14
Determining Ragweed Pollen Production
Sampling pollen from ragweed catkins.
15
Response of common ragweed to CO2
g plant-1

• Pollen Production
• 280 ppm 4.8 g
• 370 ppm 10.9 g
• 600 ppm 20.5 g
• Antigen Amb a1 ELISA / mg protein
• 280 ppm 4490
• 370 ppm 5290
• 600 ppm 8180

Chamber Study, USDA Functional Plant Biology
27893-898 Functional Plant Biology 32667-670
280
600
370
16
Ragweed in real life
All this is blue-sky hypothetical
anyway. It wont happen in real-life, and even
if it does, temperature and carbon dioxide
effects are a long ways away.
10,000 feet on a mountaintop in Hawaii.
Mauna Loa, Official CO2 data.
17
Is the rise in CO2 the same everywhere?

• Change in average day-time CO2 concentration
  (ppm) from downtown Baltimore to an organic
  (rural) farm.

455.5
402.2
386.2
18
Is the increase in temperature the same?
20.7
19.1
18.6

• Change in average daily temperature (oC) from
  downtown Baltimore to an organic (rural) farm
  (2002).

19
Urbanization and climate change.
Are these differences consistent?
CO2 differences August, 2004
What about other meteorological variables?
8-h daytime ozone. 2004 season
Overall Urban-induced increases in carbon
dioxide, air temperature and growing season are
consistent with most IPCC near-term scenarios.
With the exception of N deposition,
other variables did not differ consistency, but N
low relative to soil N.
20
And if it isntCan we study the effects of
climate change NOW?
Placing four 2x2 m2 plots Near downtown
Baltimore. Use same soil and seed bank in
suburban and rural locations.
21
Got ragweed?
2006
Urban locale had longer growing season (milder
winter), warmer temperatures, and more carbon
dioxide.
22
Allergenic pollen producers, Western
Weeds Season April through November Ragweed
(A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed
(Amaranthus retroflexus) Giant Sagebrush
(Artemisia tridentata) English plantain
(Plantago lanceolata) Russian thistle
(Salsola kali) Fireweed (Kochia
scoparia) Marsh elder (Iva
species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X.
spinosa) Yellow Dock (Rumex
crispus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)
Allergenic pollen producers, Mid-Western
Weeds Season May through October Ragweed
(A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed
(Amaranthus retroflexus) Giant Ragweed (A.
trifida) English plantain (Plantago
lanceolata) Russian thistle (Salsola
kali) Fireweed (Kochia scoparia) Marsh elder
(Iva species) Cocklebur (Xanthium
strumarium, X. spinosa) Lambsquarter
(Chenopodia album)
Allergenic pollen producers, Southern
Weeds Season April through November Ragweed
(A. atemissiifolia) Pigweed
(Amaranthus retroflexus) Giant Sagebrush
(Artemisia tridentata) English plantain
(Plantago lanceolata) Marsh elder (Iva
species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X.
spinosa) Yellow Dock (Rumex
crispus) Lambsquarter (Chenopodia album)
Allergenic pollen producers, Northeast
Weeds Season May through September Ragweed
(A. atemissiifolia) English
plantain (Plantago lanceolata) Giant Ragweed
(A trifida) Russian thistle
(Salsola kali) Marsh elder (Iva
species) Cocklebur (Xanthium strumarium, X.
spinosa) Pigweed (A. retroflexus) Lambsquar
ter (Chenopodia album) Mugwort
(Artemisia vulgaris)
23
Fungal decomposition of plants.
Alternaria alternata has been associated with a
number of respiratory problems such as rhinitis,
asthma, allergic dermatitis and allergic
sinusitis. The spores are the cause of the
allergic reactions.
For timothy grass grown from 300-600 ppm CO2,
rising carbon dioxide levels results in reduced
leaf N levels. Initial data suggest that
increased CN ratios could increase the rate of
sporulation.
24
2. CO2, plants and contact dermatitis
Can rising CO2 alter plant based dermatitis?
25
The Duke University FACE Site State of the Art.
26
Poison ivy at Duke Face ring.
27
Poison ivy plants grow faster at elevated CO2
28
Poison ivy allergenicity
Ambient Elevated
Duke University, USDA study, PNAS 1039086-9089
29
3. CO2, plants and poison
Castor bean (Ricinus communis), produces ricin,
one of the deadliest poisons known to man.
Increasing CO2 by 300 ppm results in a 34
increase in photosynthesis (Grimer and Komor
1999).
Vanaja et al. (2008) reports large response to
rising CO2.
30
How can plants affect public health? Some
indirect effects

• Food and Nutrition.
• Medicines / Narcotics.
• Disease vector biology.
• Pesticide use.

31
CO2 and human nutrition.
Flour protein from wheat lines released during
the 20th century.
Recent cooperative work with NIH indicates an
increase in omega-3-fatty acids in mung bean
with rising CO2.
32
Temperature / Flowering
Rice and temperature
33
Water and food security
34
Agriculture and water

• Today, approximately 230,000 people were added to
  the population. Three cereals, rice, wheat and
  corn feed 50 of that population. These cereals
  in turn are heavily dependent on irrigation.
• 80 of freshwater is used in irrigation.
• How will we maintain food supply with less water?

Rice production
35
The Big Three at present.
Rice
1980s 3.1 per year 1990s 1.4 per
year 2000s 0.8 per year
Wheat
1980s 2.9 per year 1990s 0.9 per
year 2000s 0.4 per year
36
Only maize has kept pace with population.
Maize
1980s 2.2 per year 1990s 2.5 per
year 2000s 3.5 per year
Energy Independence?
Maize is a heavy user of nitrogen fertilizer.
This comes from natural gas (Haber process,
N2?NH4NO3).
Russia 47,570 billion ft3 Iran 26,370 billion
ft3 U.S.A. 5,600
37
2a. CO2, plants and medicine
Approximately 15 of all current pharmaceuticals
in developed countries are derived solely from
plants (85 in undeveloped countries).
38

• Alkaloids derived from plants

Cocaine
Atropine
Caffeine
Nicotine
Codeine
Morphine
Scopolamine
Thebaine
39
Atropine and scopolamine
40
2b. CO2, plants and narcotics.
Effects unknown
Growth increases.
Anecdotal evidence
41
Papaver setigerum DC. (Wild poppy)
Quantify growth and alkaloid production to carbon
dioxide
300 ppm 1950 400 ppm Current 500
ppm 2050 600 ppm 2090
42
P. setigerum is sensitive to even small (100
ppm) increases in carbon dioxide.
Greatest relative stimulation has occurred with
recent (last few decades) CO2 increase.
43
Averages P-value Variable 300 400
500 600 CO2 Effect ____________________________
________________________________ Capsule No.
14.6 29.4 32.9 52.1 Capsule Wt.
(g) 1.44 2.47 3.55 4.30 Latex
(mg) 97 198 259 363
Morphine () 2.20 2.34 2.56
2.67 0.06
Concentration of other alkaloids did not increase
with increasing CO2.
44
3-4 x increase in alkaloid production in wild
poppy with recent and projected CO2 increases.
Accepted in Climatic Change
45
Nicotine production

• Nicotine Concentration
• 294 ppm 4.7 µg g-1
• 378 ppm 4.4 µg g-1
• 690 ppm 3.6 µg g-1

46
3. CO2, plants and disease vectorsplants are not
vectors per se, but
Hanta virus
Nectar pollen
CO2 / temperature
47
4. CO2, plants and pesticide usage.
Why cant we just control these weeds?
Ambient CO2
Future CO2
As carbon dioxide increases, glyphosate efficacy
is reduced
48
Canada thistle Best of the worst.
3 years of field trials at 250 ppm above
ambient.
49
A synopsis of CO2 impacts on herbicide efficacy
Efficacy is reduced in a number of studies. The
basis for the reduction is not entirely known.
However, if more pesticides are needed to kill
weeds, then more trace chemicals are likely in
the environment.
50
Climate change, plants and public health
Direct Effects Allergies Contact
dermatitis Toxicology
Indirect Effects Nutrition Medicine Spread of
disease vectors Increased pesticide use.
51
What is USDA doing?

• In the last 6 years have lost one full time
  scientist, and two three technicians.
• Budget cut every year for the last 6 years. The
  new farm bill has no money for studying climate
  change and agriculture. No stimulus funding.
• National Program 204, Global warming and
  agriculture was eliminated in May of 2008.
  (although some work may continue)