Lincoln Laboratory TFM Research Board Presentation

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Lincoln Laboratory TFM Research Board Presentation

• Mark Weber
• 16 October 2008

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Outline

• Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation
  (CoSPA)
• Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT)
• Analysis of Airspace Flow Program Rates
• Roadmap for Weather Integration into TFMM

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CIWS National began operations on 3 June 2008
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Performance of CIWS 2-hr Forecast
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Inception of CoSPAConsolidated Storm Prediction
for Aviation
WARP has no forecast capability
CoSPA

• CoSPA (FY 2007 )
• Support NextGen goals
• FAA-oriented
• Enroute Terminal
• Winter Summer
• Fully automated
• Meets TFM needs
• Network enabled
• Standardized format and access

• 2006 Storm Prediction situation
• Multiple forecast systems
• Diverse capabilities
• Resolution, coverage, generation algorithms and
  display
• Uncoordinated leveraging ofFAA and NWS assets

Central Processing Publish Subscribe
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Combination of Forecast Techniques
Extrapolation Forecasts (0 6 hr)
Storm Tracking Growth/Decay Trending Heuristic
Models Extrapolation
Sensor Data
Blended Forecasts (1- 5 hr)
Blending Module Adjustment of forecast
location and intensity based on comparison
between Extrapolation Numerical Model Forecasts
2-6 hr Forecasts To Web Display
Numerical Model Forecasts (2 - 12 hr)
Gridded Initial Conditions Physical Flow
Model Conservation Equations and Thermodynamics
(resolves physics of convection)
Sensor Data
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6 hr Forecast Operational Concept
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Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast
27 July 2008 18Z
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Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast
27 July 2008 18Z
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Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast
27 July 2008 18Z
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Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast
27 July 2008 18Z
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Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast
27 July 2008 18Z
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Performance of 2-6 hr Blended Forecast
27 July 2008 18Z
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Access CIWS and CoSPA on the Web at LL

• CIWS website
• ciwswww.wx.ll.mit.edu
• CoSPA website
• cospa.wx.ll.mit.edu
• LL Blackberry access also available
• ciwswww.wx.ll.mit.edu/ciws/micro
• Handout available
• Also, visit ATC Mission Area on LL External Web
• http//www.ll.mit.edu/mission/aviation/aviationres
  earch.html

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Outline

• Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation
  (CoSPA)
• Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT)
• Analysis of Airspace Flow Program Rates
• Roadmap for Weather Integration into TFMM

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Route Availability Planning Tool
RAPT Operational Concept Help air traffic
managers improve timing of departure route
opening and closing Determine severity of
convection that future departures will encounter
Location J36/J75 departures (10 min past the hour)
Forecast Accuracy Scores
Location of blockage
Some weather but passable
Echo top height at blockage
No weather
Route partially blocked
Significant storms on route
RAPT blockage consistency
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RAPT Status

• Coordinated facility observations in 2007, 2008
• 2007 benefit estimates 2,300 delay hours, 7.5
  million
• Identified needed RAPT enhancements
• More robust guidance when details of the weather
  forecast are changing
• Improved measure and presentation of RAPT route
  availability forecast uncertainty
• Procedural improvements needed to increase
  departure management efficiency
• Decision makers often lack critical information
  (e.g., which routes are open, closed)
• Procedural bottlenecks (e.g., manual entry of
  reroutes in the Pit, excessive coordinate
  required to launch pathfinders) reduce achievable
  benefits
• Training and experience needed to needed to
  implement pro-active, distributed decision making
  (e.g., allow towers to assign weather-avoiding
  reroutes)
• Continued work with users to refine ConOps and
  develop improved procedures
• Future operational site candidates
• PHL
• ORD
• PCT

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Outline

• Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation
  (CoSPA)
• Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT)
• Analysis of Airspace Flow Program Rates
• Roadmap for Weather Integration into TFMM

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FCAA05 Events2007
FCAA05 implemented on 20 convective weather days
in 2007
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2007 FCAA05 Timing (UTC)

• Mean AFP rate for first 2 hours reduced between
  I-time S-time
• If Wx often changed little between I-time
  S-time, why the rate reset?
• NTMO interview Rates often implemented higher
  than perceived
• achievable to ensure initial AFP buy-in
  customers prefer
• wait-and-see approach

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Meteorological Factors Correlated with AFP Rate
Settings
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Findings

• Without objective support in establishing AFP
  rates, difficult to sufficiently restrict AFP
  throughput and ensure buy-in from NAS customers
• Rates often lowered over course of the event
• Frequent use of GDP/GS on top of AFPs
• In the majority of FCAA05 programs, the most
  severe weather occurred in ZNY
• AFP rate decisions suggest awareness of
  variations in capacity impacts given expectations
  for weather severity, forecast certainty, and
  impact region.
• Modest rate differences observed for higher vs.
  lower impact events

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Objective Model for Achievable AFP Rates
FCAA05 Time Horizons

• Fair weather rate estimated using traffic counts
  on 3 non-weather days
• CIWS precipitation and echo tops products used to
  calculate blockage on routes through AFP boundary
• Worst case blockage for upstream or downstream
  weather is assigned
• Baseline rate reduced proportionally to blockage
  integrated over relevant routes through the AFP
  boundary

20 min
0 min
10 min
-10 min
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FCAA05 Model Validation 15 Minute Throughput
Reduction
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Outline

• Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation
  (CoSPA)
• Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT)
• Analysis of Airspace Flow Program Rates
• Roadmap for Weather Integration into TFMM

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Improving Tactical TFM Decision Making During
Convective Weather

• Integrated weather-TFM decision support to reduce
  the cognitive workload for traffic managers and
  ATC
• Dramatic improvements in ability to modify flight
  plans (SEVEN and airborne rerouting)
• Dramatic reductions in multi-facility
  coordination requirements for individual flight
  routing decisions
• Increased attention to human factors issues
  related with TFM decision making in ARTCCs,
  TRACONs and ATCTs
• Develop metrics for effective tactical TFM
  decision making so that good performance can be
  recognized and rewarded

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Candidate dates for various TFM functional
capabilities
RAPT - forecasts when arrival flows are likely
to deviate into departure route airspace P90, C90
Potomac and Chicago TRACONs TMA - has
enhanced capability to provide useful operational
capability in convective weather TMA/EDC
gate-to-gate TMA
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TFM Capability Dependence on Forecasts and
Translation
Pilot model
Capacity models

• Notes
• En route includes level, climbing and descending
  aircraft
• TFM conceptual issues include is sector
  occupancy an adequate characterization in
  convective weather or, does one also have to
  insure flow continuity ? Demand projections when
  airspace is blocked by storms?