Running the Commercialization Rapids with New Technology

1
Running the Commercialization Rapids with New
Technology

• Margaret Lewis
• Software StrategyCPG Commercial
• AMD

Paul Teich Business StrategyCPG
Server/Workstation AMD
paul.teich_at_amd.com
margaret.lewis_at_amd.com
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Session Outline

• Why Model Technology Adoption?
• Technology Adoption Waterfall
• A Few Examples
• Internet
• Server and Client Computers
• Mapping Current Technology Trends
• 64-bit Computing
• Multi-core Processors
• Virtualization
• What Have We Learned?

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Why Model Technology Adoption?

• Create a visual representation of market trends
• Useful for evaluating adoption over a span of
  time
• Gain insights from past adoption cycles
• Lessons from both successes and failures
• Track the progress of emerging technology
• Respond to changes in adoption patterns
• Identify changing marketing dynamics
• Make corrections to keep on course

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Technology Adoption Waterfall
Riding the Commercialization Rapids

• General model that is widely applicable
• Technology must cross over at each segment
• Commercialization can occur in niche market or
  mainstream
• Not all technologies navigate the waterfall

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Technology Adoption Waterfall
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Technology Adoption Waterfall
Consumer
Commercial
Research
Trailblazer
Technical Computing
Prosumer
General Business
General Consumer
Laggard
Laggard
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Classic Waterfall Example - Internet
Innovators
Early Adopters
Early Majority
Late Majority
Commercialization
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Tech Savvy Example - Servers
Innovators
Early Adopters
Early Majority
Late Majority
Commercialization
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Consumer Example - Clients
Innovators
Early Adopters
Early Majority
Late Majority
Commercialization
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Emerging Technology - 64-bit Computing
1995 - 1997 UltraSPARC HP PA-RISC IBM Power
1991 DEC Alpha SGI R4000 (MIPS)
2001 Itanium
2003 AMD64 AMD Opteron
Innovators
AMD Athlon 64
2003 Windows x64
Commercial
Early Adopters
2004 EM64T
2004 Itanium2
Early Majority
2005 Windows Server 2003 x64 Windows XP Pro x64
Late Majority
"Sixty-four-bit computing is definitely going
mainstream," Haff said. "We're talking millions
and billions of users, not necessary in the
thousands." (Gordon Haff is an analyst with
Illuminata Inc.)
Consumer
Commercialization
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Emerging Technology - 64-bit Computing

• 64-bit hardware will be de facto by 2006
• 64-bit Operating Systems are ramping
• Becomes dominant for new servers by 2006
• Become mainstream for consumers with Longhorn
• Major influencer will be applications
• Server and workstations already have proof points
• For consumer - the OS is the killer app?
• ISVs and IHVs are becoming 64-bit savvy
• By end of 2005 - 64-bit tool chains will be in
  place
• Some codes will remain 32-bit - and its OK!

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Emerging Technology - Multi-Core
2005 AMD64
Innovators
AMD Opteron
2004 IBM Power Sun SPARC
2005 Itanium
Early Adopters
AMD Athlon 64
Early Majority
AMD is leading with innovators and early adopters
in server, then moving to client , following
tradition client/server waterfall
2005 x86?
Late Majority
Commercialization
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Emerging Technology - Virtualization
1958 Altos - First Virtual Memory machine
Innovators
1997 - 1999 Connectix and VMware intro x86
products
Early Adopters
1960s IBM virtual machine systems
1996 Sun introduces static partitioning
2004 Zen Open Source Hypervisor
2003 MSFT buys Connectix
2001 VMware ESX
Early Majority
2002 Solaris Containers
AMD64 Pacifica Longhorn
Late Majority
Commercialization
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Call To Action

• Can you speed-up the waterfall?
• Yes, Internet adoption showcases what happens
  when right place at right time happens
• Are there exceptions to the flow?
• Yes, recently, mass market as tech driver -
  certain client devices poised for acceptance
  outside of flow
• Will early adopters continue to strongly
  influence general technology direction?
• Yes for AMD64 - already moving from early
  adopters to early majority
• Yes for dual core - following traditional
  adoption model
• No for virtualization - will move quickly to
  transparent feature in Operating System and
  Silicon

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Additional Resources

• Email
• Web Resources
• 50 x 15 http//50x15.amd.com/home/default.aspx
• Internet statistics http//www.internetworldstats
  .com/stats.htm
• Crossing the Chasm Marketing and Selling
  High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customersby
  Geoffrey A. Moore
• Diffusion of Innovation Theory http//www.ciadvert
  ising.org/studies/student/98_fall/theory/hornor/pa
  per1.html
• AMD64 Windows x64 benchmarks
  http//www.amd.com

paul.teich_at_amd.com
margaret.lewis_at_amd.com