Observations on: The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan: Pattern Recognition

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Observations onThe 2003 OCLC Environmental
ScanPattern Recognition

• Lorcan Dempsey
• VP Research and Chief Strategist
• CNI Spring 2004 Task Force MeetingAlexandria,
  April 16 2004

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Overview
The library community?
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• The 2003 OCLC Environmental Scan

• Customary Board of Trustees 3 year review
• This year
• Worldwide scan
• User perspective
• In format for sharing with membership

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Pattern recognition
We have no future because our present is too
volatile. We have only risk management. The
spinning of the given moments scenarios.
Pattern recognition
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Worldwide Scan

• 100 people interviewed

• 29 countries selected
• 60 of the worlds population
• 85 of worlds gross domestic product

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Scan content
Social
Technical
Economic
Research learning
Library
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The social landscape The social landscape The
social landscape The social landscape The social
landscape The social landscape The social
landscape The social landscape The social
landscape The social landscape The social
landscape The social landscape The
social landscape The
social
landscape The
social landscape

The social
landscape The
social

landscape The
social

landscape The
social
landscape
The
social landscape
The social

landscape The
social landscape The
social landscape
The
social landscape The
Social
Technical
Economic
Research learning
Library
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Trends

• The Amazoogle effect
• Generations
• The fabric of collaboration
• The value of the library

Technology is what has been invented since you
were bornAlan Kay
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Internet search answer
NASA Quest Pregunte a un expero Schools Online
Project ScienceLine Scientific-American Ask the
Expert Ammdoc.com Buscamed Eclevelandclinic.com Ec
onsults.partners.org Enviar pregunta Expertdoc.net
Findcancerexperts.com Go Ask Alice Mdexpert.com P
hysician referral center Poser une
question Pregunte a RxExpress Ask Joan of
Art National Museum of Art Reference Desk Ask
Made iVillage AskLISA Laboratorio de estudos
urbanos
Abuzz Advice Trader Answers.com Ask An Expert
Sources.com AskERIC AskJeevesAskVRD.org Ask the
Old Buzzard CNNs Ask an Expert Page Consejos
practicos Google Answers Internet Public Library
Ask A Question Keen.com Pregunta a los
expertos Taxcafe Wondir Ask Auntie
Nolo AskBAR Experts.com Poser un
question Ask-A-Geologist As Ask Volcanologist Ask
Dr. Math Ask Dr. Universe Ask Shamu How Things
Work MAD Scientist Network
Social landscape
OCLC compiled from various sources (August 2003)
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Microcontent
Worldwide Microcontent Market 2003 -
1Billion Includes ring tones, logos, screen
savers, micro games, etc.
By 2007, Amazon.coms revenue from
microcontent sales will exceed 500million. (0
.6 probability)

• Top Ten Tech Searches 2003
• Ringtones
• Digital Cameras
• Mobile Phones
• HDTV
• MP3 Players
• iPod
• TiVo
• Plasma TV
• DVD-R
• Camcorders

OCLC compiled from various sources (August
2003) http//search.yahoo.com/top2003
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The Amazoogle effect

• Three perceived attributes?
• Comprehensive
• Accessible
• Immediate gratification

The net generation doesnt love a wall
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The fabric of collaboration Social software
The collaboration technology fabric
OCLC compiled from various sources (August 2003)
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Trends
Social landscape

• Net generation
• Self-sufficiency
• Seamlessness
• Abundance

• Library
• Increasingly called to define value against the
  Amazoogle horizon
• Opportunity and challenge

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The economic landscape The economic landscape The
economic landscape The economic landscape The
economic landscape The economic landscape The
economic landscape The economic landscape The
economic landscape The economic landscape
The economic
landscape
The economic
landscape The
economic

landscape The
economic

landscape
The
economic

landscape
The economic
landscape The

economic
landscape The
economic landscape
The
economic
landscape The economic
Social
Technical
Economic
Research learning
Library
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Economiclandscape

• Changes in funding of the public good
• Normal cycles or permanent changes?
• Sources of library / education funds
• Uses of library funds
• Resource allocations
• Trends, shifts

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Library spending
U.S., Japan, U.K., Italy and France represent
nearly 75 of the total estimated 2000 worldwide
library spending 29 billion
LibEcon (August 2003)
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Uses of library funds
Staff 53
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Materials stock 27
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Other 17
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ARL libraries 2001-02
eContent/subscriptions 3
Worldwide average for libraries in sample
countries 2000-01
LibEcon (August 2003) ARL (2003)
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Trends

• Questioning the value of the public good
• Education
• Public services
• Need for evidence of value

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The technical landscape The technical landscape
The technical landscape The technical landscape
The technical landscape The technical landscape
The technical landscape The technical
landscape The technical landscape The
technical landscape The technical
landscape The technical

landscape The
technical
landscape The

technical
landscape

The technical
landscape

The technical
landscape
The
technical
landscape The
technical

landscape The
technical landscape
The technical

landscape The technical
Social
Technical
Economic
Research learning
Library
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Technology landscape

• A non-Library technology review

• Where we looked and who we consulted
• Technology periodicals / publications
• Leading technology vendors
• Top technology analysts

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Trends

• Ambient connectivity and embedded computation
• Unplug and play
• Coping with abundance
• Open source
• Convenience vs privacy

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A new era ambient and embedded
Adapted from Gartner Inc. 2003
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Ambient and embedded

• In an electronically nomadicised world I have
  become a two-legged terminal, an ambulatory IP
  address, maybe even a wireless router in an ad
  hoc mobile network.
• Those who just want a simpler life may choose to
  unplug, and to live off the grid in Idaho. But
  for this particular early 21st Century nodular
  subject, disconnection would be amputation. I am
  part of the networks and the networks are part of
  me. I am visible to Google. I link therefore I
  am.

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Unplug and play

• Software pieces
• Web services
• Distributed

Common services

• Google API
• Amazon API
• In 2002, 6.2 of Amazon revenues, or 246
  million, came from using Web services to become
  an e-commerce platform.

Content services
Application services
The User
Presentation services
OCLC Research (August 2003)
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How to organize a newabundance?Role of library
approaches?
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Hype or Hope?
How close are we to the Semantic Web that Tim
Berners-Lee describes? Yes, and my American
garage door talks to my Belgian toaster, and they
agree I am hungry. Great idea. I think it will
take a long time to realize, and that we will go
through several generation of enabling
technologies before we find ones that are
suitable to actually get the job
done. Herbert Van de Sompel
Saltons Home Hub 2004 Consumer Electronic Show
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Research learning landscape Research learning
landscape Research learning landscape Research
learning landscape Research learning
landscape Research learning landscape Research
learning landscape
Research learning
landscape
Research
learning

landscape
Research

learning
landscape

Research
learning
landscape

Research
learning
landscape

Research
learning landscape
Research learning
Social
Technical
Economic
Research learning
Library
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Research learning landscape

• Changing pattern of research and learning
  behaviours
• Changing patterns of scholarly communication
• Lifelong learning trends
• The need for place
• Social exchange

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Learning for work

• Learn, adapt, change
• In 2001, US23 billion
• In Fortunes 100 fastest growing companies, 2 of
  top 10 are e-learning companies
• 400 million in Asia Pacific by 2005

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oclc taskforce on elearning

• Diffusion of information skills and use through
  the learning process
• Life cycle management of learning materials
• Systems interaction between library and
  learning management systems

?
Picture courtesy Dan Rehak, Carnegie Mellon
University
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Scholarly information flow
discovery, harvesting
discovery, linking, embedding
Aggregators
harvesting
Data analysis, transformation, mining, modeling
Learning object creation, reuse
deposit, self archiving
deposit, self archiving
Researchand e-science
Learning teaching
Repositories
Data creation, capture and gathering, lab
experiments fieldwork, surveys, grids media
Courses, modules, learning management systems,
learning portals
validation
discovery, linking, embedding
publish, discovery
peer-reviewed journals
Conferences, abstracting and indexing services,
etc.
Picture adapted from Liz Lyon
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• Complex
• Resource management
• Personal, institutional, other
• relationships
• A service and role question

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The library landscape The library landscape The
library landscape The library landscape The
library landscape The library landscape The
library landscape The library landscape The
library landscape The
library landscape The
library landscape The
library
landscape
The library
landscape The

library
landscape
The library

landscape
The library
landscape

The library
landscape The
library landscape

The library
landscape The
library landscape The
library landscape
The
Social
Technical
Economic
Research learning
Library
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Interviews

• Libraries should reallocate positions to newer
  kinds of jobs digital scholarship, open source
  projects, etc.

Librarians cannot change user behavior and so
need to meet the user.
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Interviews

• Paper content is being moved off-site to make
  room for things like cafes and information
  commons, but what stays and what goes? We do not
  have good tools for these decisions.

The idea of the balancedbut unreadcollection
is disappearing.
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Collections grid
stewardship
high
low
low
uniqueness
high
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Some issues
Does structure of costs reflect new
roles? Reallocation of resources?
Digital resource management . Skills
Mainstreaming special collections Engagement with
research and learning Grant funding
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Application architecture
Common services
Im looking for something through my librarys
portal.
Content services
Application services
The User
Presentation services
OCLC Research (August 2003)
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Application architecture
Directory user profile
Directory service description
Directory ILL policy
Authentication
Common services
Directory local knowledge base
Reference db
OpenURL resolver
Circ/ILL system
Article db
Request broker
Content services
Query broker
Application services
The User
Presentation services
OCLC Research (August 2003)
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Interconnected library environment

• More complex library systems environment
• ILS, portal, resource sharing, resolver, digital
  asset management,
• More complex institutional systems environment
• Learning management system, university portal,
  local government portal,
• Growing use of shared services
• Directory, identity management, trust management,
  

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And
Social
Technical
Economic
Research learning
Library
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Trends implications
global membership
search
Technology
Research
e-learning
self-sufficient
public good
Open-source
Web services
rights management
e-commerce
collaboration
seamless
Library
Economic
OCLC
Social
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• A turning point
• Engagement with research, learning and living in
  new ways
• Create value
• Skills and values

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Read the full report
www.oclc.org/membership/escan
Print copies available at same URL 15 to cover
print and postage
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The pattern is new
The knowledge imposes a pattern and falsifies For
the pattern is new in every moment