Population Estimates

1
Population Estimates Projections for the
United States

• Emma Ernst
• Population Estimates Branch
• October 9, 2007

2
Overview

• Who are we?
• What data do we produce?
• Why do we produce estimates and projections?
• How do we produce estimates and projections?
• When are the data available to the public?
• Where can you find the data?

3
Who Are We?Our State Partners

• The Federal-State Cooperative Program for
  Population Estimates (FSCPE) was formed in 1967.
  The mission of the co-op is to
• Promote cooperation between the states and the
  Census Bureau
• Prepare a set of consistent state, county and
  subcounty estimates
• Improve and advance estimates methodology and
• Enhance the recognition of local demographic
  work.

4
What Data Do We Produce? Estimates

• Population
• National by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin
  (monthly)
• State and county totals
• Produced in conjunction with the FSCPE
• State by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin
• County by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin
• Incorporated place and minor civil division
  totals
• Commonwealth of Puerto Rico by age and sex
• Puerto Rico municipio by age and sex
• Housing units
• State
• County

5
What Data Do We Produce? Projections

• Population
• National by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin
• State by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

6
Why Do We Produce Estimates? Federal Mandate

• The Intercensal Estimates Program is required
  under U.S.C. Title 13, Section 181
• During the intervals between each census of
  populationthe Secretary, to the extent feasible,
  should annually produce and publish for each
  State, county, and local unit of general purpose
  government which has a population of fifty
  thousand or more, current data on total
  population and population characteristics and, to
  the extent feasible, shall biennially produce and
  publish for other local units of general purpose
  government current data on total population.

7
Why Do We Produce Estimates? Data Uses

• Allocation of over 200 billion in federal funds
  each year
• Controls for federal surveys
• Current Population Survey
• American Community Survey
• Survey of Income and Program Participation
• American Housing Survey
• Denominators for statistical rates
• Birth and death rates (NCHS)
• Per capita income (BEA)
• Program Planning
• Location of public and private services

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Why Do We Produce Projections? Data Uses

• Base for projections of specific populations by
  other federal agencies
• National Institute on Aging projections of the
  elderly population for health and other planning
• Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of the
  working age population for input to labor force
  projections
• National Cancer Institute projections of deaths
  as input to projections of future cancer
  incidence
• Department of Education projections of school
  age populations for input to school enrollment
  projections
• Public and private program planning
• Future need for resources and services
• Academic research

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How Do We Produce Estimates?

• National level
• Cohort-component method
• P2 P1 B - D NM (International Migration)
• State and county level
• Component of change method
• P2 P1 B - D NM
• (controlled to the national estimates)
• Subcounty level
• Distributive housing unit method
• County population is distributed to subcounty
  parts based on updated estimates of housing

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How Do We Produce Projections?

• National level
• Cohort-component method
• - Components of population change (fertility,
  mortality, and net migration) are projected
  separately for each birth cohort
• - Base population is advanced each year by
  using projected survival rates and net
  international migration
• - Time series analysis of components
• State level
• Cohort component method
• - Controlled to the national projections

11
When Are The Data Available to The Public?

• Estimates (for July 2006)
• Dec. 2006 National and state (including Puerto
  Rico) totals
• January 2007 State 18
• March 2007 County totals
• Puerto Rico Municipio totals
• May 2007 National and State demographic detail
• June 2007 Subcounty totals
• August 2007 County demographic detail
• September 2007 State and county housing units

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When are the data available to the public?

• Projections
• 2005 Revised National/State Totals with
  Census 2000 race definitions

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Where Can You Find the Data?
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Where Can You Find the Data? Estimates
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Where Can You Find the Data? Projections
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Contact Information

• Estimates
• http//www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php
• Emma.r.ernst_at_census.gov