The American Monitor:

1
The American Monitor Final Notes for 2001 about
Post-Attack Public Opinion
2
An Introductory Note

• Public Opinion Strategies began a series of
  reports in late September to closely monitor the
  dramatic shifts in public opinion after the
  attack on September 11th. This sixth report
  finishes our observations for the year 2001 and
  confirms the trends we were beginning to see in
  our mid-November summary.
• This report is split into three sections
• Interesting observations about broad social
  changes
• Measuring reactions to September 11th and
• What it means for the world of politics.

The data in this presentation is from a Public
Opinion Strategies national survey conducted
December 11-15, 2001, unless otherwise noted on
the chart. The survey was conducted among 800
registered likely voters and has a margin of
error of 3.5.
3
Interesting Observations about Broad Social
Changes
4

• Interesting Observations about Broad Social
  Changes ...
• Our reports have highlighted the unexpected
  ripple effects of the attack and its aftermath
  such as the dramatic surge in the trust in
  government and the impact on consumer confidence.
• Todays data reflects an equally dramatic surge
  in the percentage of people who think religion
  as a whole is increasing its influence on
  American life from 39 nine months ago to 71
  today. Also
• Church attendance is up 10.
• Bible sales are up 20.
• Whats all this mean? Well, we dont know yet.
  We have already seen such a substantial bounce
  back on other measures, one wonders whether
  these broader changes will last for the next
  three to five years or drift back to pre-attack
  levels much more quickly.

5
Interesting Observations about Broad Social
Changes ... Our sense is though there could well
be other unexpected changes we are not reporting
as we dont know enough yet to be asking the
right questions! But, as always, its well worth
trying to find the answers and understanding the
national Zeitgeist as the candidate, campaign,
and party that best understands this new
post-attack environment will be the one that
prospers. Finally, our corporate clients have
asked whether this new environment has also
raised the positive sentiment and standing of
corporate America. Well, here we finally do have
an answer. No.
6
As with trust in government, you have to go back
two generations to witness anything like todays
findings about the perceived influence of
religion on American life.
7
Measuring Reactions to September 11th
8
Measuring Reactions to September 11th
Our December national surveys round out the
emerging picture that had us label our November
summary the new normal.
Concern about the issue of terrorism security
is decreasing, while we watch the ascendency of
the issue of the economy and jobs. Consistent
with this finding, were seeing fewer people
saying its likely there will be future acts of
terrorism in the U.S. over the next several
weeks. News attention to September 11th and its
aftermath continues to be lower as well. The
unique emotion scale developed by Public
Opinion Strategies also shows Americas recovery
as there has been a sharp drop in people
reporting they feel nervous, worried, depressed,
scared or aggressive. While both genders report
declines in these emotions, there continues to be
a gender gulf in terms of how each gender feels
about September 11th and its aftermath.

9
Americans are
most
focused on
terrorism/security and the economy/jobs.
And, which ONE of the following issues do you
believe should be the highest priority for
Congress and the President?
And which of the following would be the NEXT
issue most personally important to you?
48
48
26
20
15
13
30
25
8
6
12
7
7
7
3
3
Terrorism
The Economy
Education
Social
Making sure
Moral
Cutting Federal
Illegal Drugs
Security
Jobs
Security
seniors have
Values
Taxes
Crime
Rx drug coverage
First Choice
Second Choice
10
But when forced to choose, a majority of
Americans say they are more concerned about the
economy/jobs. There are sharp differences by
gender.
Generally speaking, which are you the MOST
concerned about right now...
Overall
By Gender
The slowdown of the U.S. economy
53
60
49
46
37
4
Don't Know/
Refused
43
Men
Women
The threat of more terrorism
Economy
Terrorism
on U.S. soil
11
Higher income respondents continue to be the most
likely to express concern about the economy/jobs.

Overall
By Household Income
12
For the first time in our national tracking,
Ground Zero respondents say they are more
concerned about the economy/jobs.
Generally speaking, which are you the MOST
concerned about right now..
Overall
By Region
The slowdown of the U.S. economy
53
51
53
43
43
4
Don't Know/
Refused
"Ground Zero"
Balance of the country
43
(7)
(93)
The threat of more terrorism
on U.S. soil
Economy
Terrorism
NYC and D.C. media markets
13
Concerns about the economy have increased as
concerns about the likelihood of further acts of
terrorism continue to decline.
14
So, its not surprising to see consistent data
that Americans are focusing on this story less.
If you had to estimate, how much time, if any,
would you say you spent today following the news
on TV, the radio, or in newspapers or magazines
or talking to someone about the terrorist attacks
of September 11th, 2001 and their
aftermath, including the United States led
military action in Afghanistan?
75
71
71
66
65
64
63
62
62
62
61
61
60
60
60
59
59
58
58
58
57
54
53
52
52
51
48
47
46
46
45
41
41
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
36
35
35
34
34
34
33
33
24
24
23
Military action in Afghanistan
Widespread Anthrax Incidents
Taliban begins to retreat

October 1
October 2
October 3
October 4
October 7
October 8
October 9
October 10
October 13
October 14
October 15
October 16
October 17
November 4
September 19
September 20
September 23
September 24
September 25
September 26
September 27
October 24-28
October 18,-21
December 11-15
November 13-15
September 17,-18
Less than 2 hrs
More than 2 hrs
15
We gave respondents a list of 18 different
emotions in order to better understand how people
feel about the events of September 11th, and its
aftermath in late September and, again, in
December. The sharpest declines are people saying
they are less nervous, worried, depressed, scared
or aggressive.
16
Negative Emotions
There has been a great deal of talk about the
different range of feelings that people have had
about the events of September 11th. I am going
to read you a list of some different words and
emotions that could describe how you feel about
these events. For each word or emotion, please
tell me yes or no if this would describe you or
not . . .
17
Positive Emotions
There has been a great deal of talk about the
different range of feelings that people have had
about the events of September 11th. I am going
to read you a list of some different words and
emotions that could describe how you feel about
these events. For each word or emotion, please
tell me yes or no if this would describe you or
not . . .
18
Both men and women report large drops in certain
emotions in how they describe their feelings
about the attack on September 11th.
Male Emotion Trend
Female Emotion Trend
19
The Gender Gulf
Men and women differ on which emotions they use
to describe their feelings about the events of
September 11th
Men are still more likely to say they feel
20
The Gender Gulf
Men and women differ on which emotions they use
to describe their feelings about the events of
September 11th
Women are still more likely to say they feel

21
Emotion scale of Ground Zero residents compared
to the rest of the country continues to reflect
some differences in how respondents describe
their feelings
NYC and D.C. media markets
22
What it Means for the World of Politics
23
What it Means for the World of Politics

Within the 62 national average saying right
direction is an incredibly sharp difference by
political party with 82 of strong Republicans
saying the country is headed in the right
direction compared to only 41 of strong
Democrats. This continues to be a uniquely
pro-incumbent environment with a majority of
Americans saying they would vote to re-elect
their own Member of Congress. The generic
congressional vote has stabilized to a roughly
four percent Republican advantage among likely
registered voters. However, unlike the
September/October findings, we once again see
sharper--but more traditional--breaks by gender,
region, and other factors that look more like the
old normal in political terms. It is
primarily a surge of Republican identification
among men, especially older men, and higher
margins in the Mountain and Farm Belt states that
is helping drive the Republican generic numbers
up. In the emerging world of the new politics,
voters currently blame the terrorist attack as
the primary reason for why the government has a
deficit again. Tracking this finding over 2002
will be critical.

24
The terrorist attacks have swelled U.S. national
pride,
boosting the "Right Direction" sentiment off the
charts.
"Generally speaking, would you say that things in
the COUNTRY are going in the
right direction or have they pretty seriously
gotten off on the wrong track?"
25
There is a sharp difference by party
identification.
"Generally speaking, would you say that things in
the COUNTRY are going in the
right direction or have they pretty seriously
gotten off on the wrong track?"
26

• Presidential job approval is generally 15 to 20
  points higher than right
  direction.
• Frequently, right direction changes before
  presidential approval.
• Given the underlying partisan split on this
  question now, its likely if right direction
  begins to erode among Independents and Democrats,
  it could set the stage for some slippage in
  presidential approval.
• Of course, if right direction continues at this
  level, it means it is very possible for President
  Bush to sustain these incredibly high job
  approval numbers!

Heres why this chart showing Right Direction/
Wrong Track by party is important
27
Todays environment continues to be incumbent
friendly.
Voters are tending to support the re-election of
their congressional incumbent.
Do you think your Member of Congress has
performed his or her job well enough to deserve
reelection, or do you think its time to give a
new person a chance to do a better job?
Probably
Definitely
Re-Elect
Re-Elect
27
24
Total Re-Elect
51
Total New Person
28
Probably
New Person
DK/
11
Refused
21
Definitely
New Person
17
28
Theres no question now through five of our last
national surveys that Republicans are enjoying
their largest sustained generic ballot edge since
late 1994/early 1995.
Generic Congressional Ballot Tracking Chart
46
45
!
44
44
44

43
43
43
43
43
43


!
GOP
42
42
42



!
!
!
(43)
41
41
41
41
41

!
!
40
40
40
40
40
40
40


!
!
!
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
Dem



!
!
!
!
38
38
38






!
!
(39)
37
!
!
!


July 2000
July 2001
June 1999
June 2000
August 2000
February 2001
December 1999
September 1999
September 2000
April 12-13, 2001
April 24-26, 2001
October 3-5, 2000
October 7-9, 2001
October 17-21 2001
October 14-17, 2000
October 10-14, 2001
September 23-25, 2001
November 27-29, 2001
December 11-15 2001
Republican
Democrat
!

29
Post the attack and Americas military response,
gender differences on the generic vote are about
as big as it gets.
And thinking ahead to the next U.S. Congressional
election in your district in 2002if the election
were held today, for whom would you votethe
Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Gender Gender/Ethnicity
19 -18 29 0
30
The sharp spike among men is because of an
enormous surge of support among older men.
And thinking ahead to the next U.S. Congressional
election in your district in 2002if the election
were held today, for whom would you votethe
Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
12 23 31 25
-27 -18 -6 -8
31
Were back to the old normal with Republican
fortunes lowest in the Northeast and sharply high
in the South.
And thinking ahead to the next U.S. Congressional
election in your district in 2002if the election
were held today, for whom would you votethe
Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
-8 13
18 31
32
The generic vote by which region is more
Republican or Democrat is also fairly stable with
pre-attack results, but numbers in the Pacific
region are clearly up as are Republican margins
in the Mountain and Farm Belt states.
And thinking ahead to the next U.S. Congressional
election in your district in 2002if the election
were held today, for whom would you votethe
Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Net Republican Regions
Net Democrat Regions
25 21 14 12 6
-4 -8 -22
33
Two ways to look at the data Democrats make no
in-roads with non-college men, while Republicans
struggle among college educated women.
22 24
-12 -22
34
The generic vote by the respondents top two
issues is interestingwith the issue cluster
the economy jobs clearly up for grabs.
And thinking ahead to the next U.S. Congressional
election in your district in 2002if the election
were held today, for whom would you votethe
Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Republican Advantage
Democrat Advantage
13 Moral Values (GOP 68-DEM 20) 8 Taxes (GOP
64-DEM 21) 6 Illegal Drugs (GOP 54-DEM
27) 48 Terrorism Security (GOP 51-DEM
33) 48 Economy Jobs (GOP 41-DEM 43) 15
Drugs for Seniors (GOP 33-DEM 49) 26
Education (GOP 34-DEM 51) 20 Social
Security (GOP 32-DEM 54)
48
43
27
18
-2
-16
-17
-22
35
One reason the issue cluster of economy jobs is
up for grabs is the country is divided on
whether we are headed out of or headed deeper
into a recession.
36
Of course, the answer to whether we are headed
out of or deeper into a recession will have
enormous bearing on the results in 2002. The
Democrats are trying to make the case our
economic woes and the deficit are the
consequences of the Bush tax cuts. Its clear
Republicans need to drive home the message about
the terrorist economy and not let the Democrats
challenge go unanswered.
37
Voters blame the loss of the surplus on the
aftermath of the terrorist attack, NOT the recent
tax cut.
38
(No Transcript)
39
The Bottom Line

• Normal has been redefined to an emerging
  post-attack new normal.
• While Americans have significantly changed their
  attitudes toward government, recent data shows
  that the issue agenda may be drifting back to
  pre-9/11 concerns.
• Emphasis will be on the economy/jobs, Social
  Security, Medicare, and health care. Security
  issues (national, economic, and personal) will
  also be important.
• Once again, its the economy, stupid. Democrats
  want to brand this as the Bush Recession. If
  the recession is perceived to be the result of
  9/11 and Osama bin Laden, the Republicans wont
  get the blame.

40
The Bottom Line

• If a Republican candidate does well with
  Independents, seniors, and women, the Democrat
  cant win.
• Expect Democrats to run as Republican-Lite
  anti-tax in rhetoric, not as anti-gun as they
  have been, and trying to do better in rural
  areas. At the same time, they will be very
  aggressive in attacking on Social Security,
  prescription drugs, and the economy/jobs.
• Public tolerance for Washingtons usual blame
  game for legislative inaction could well be
  especially low. Congressional approval is at an
  all-time high as people perceive the two parties
  working together for the common good. Republican
  electoral fortunes would be stronger if
  re-election campaigns are based on our
  legislative success in 2002.