Today

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Today
DeWitt John Director of Environmental
Studies Bowdoin College Attacking Wicked
Problems like Climate Change
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DeWitt John Policy Experience
Colorado Director, Division of Mines Policy
Director for the Governor Washington
DC Director of Economic Policy, Natl Governors
Asso Director, State Policy Program, Aspen
Institute Director, Center for the Economy
Environment, Natl Academy of Public
Administration
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DeWitt John Books
environment.gov Transforming Environmental
Protection for the 21st Century A Brighter
Future for Rural America? Strategies for
Communities and States Civic Environmentalism
Alternatives to Regulation in States and
Communities Resolving the paradox of
environmental protection Clean air and the
politics of coal
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Attacking Wicked Problems like Climate Change

• 3-28-07
• DeWitt John
• Environmental Studies Program
• Bowdoin College
• Brunswick, Maine
• djohn_at_bowdoin.edu

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• What is a wicked problem?
• How can political leaders, citizens, and you go
  about reducing the risks of wicked problems?
• Now-2010 the policy window in the US for
  addressing the wicked problem of climate change

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Cuyahoga River burning, Cleveland, Ohio, 1969
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Simple problems

• A few, easily identifiable sources
• Bad guys! Rich, unpopular culprits
• Big predictable risks
• Readily available technology to reduce risks

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How to solve a simple problem

• Make the culprits at the sources install the
  technology to eliminate the risks
• Regulation
• Incentives

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Efficiency elec 21 res 62 ind 73.5 tn 20
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Simple problems Wicked problems

• Many sources too many to count!
• Multiple, unknown, or poor culprits
• or we all are the problem need for widespread
  collective action

• Few sources
• Identifiable, rich, unpopular culprits

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Simple problems Wicked problems

• Big, predictable risks
• Available affordable technology

• Multiple risks, uncertain timing
• New info about the problem solutions keeps
  appearing
• Risky, expensive technology.
• Technologies not yet fully developed.
• Too many technologies! (PS)
• Unintended consequences
• Market failures (information, difference in
  perspectives about time)

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How to solve a simple problem

• Make the culprits at the sources install the
  technology to eliminate the risks
• Regulation
• Incentives

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How to get a handle on a wicked problem

• Many sources
• Look first for low-hanging fruit easy things
  that will pay off quickly
• Set broad goals and plan for incremental changes
  to address other sources
• Culprits?
• First identify culprits that you can influence or
  regulate easily and productively
• Then, can you find businesses/investors that will
  profit from developing clean new technologies?

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How to get a handle on a wicked problem

• Unpredictable risks
• - Assess the longer-term risks and expect
  surprises as events unfold
• - Set some goals (e.g., 60-90 reduction in
  GHGs by 2050)
• - Develop scenarios different ways to achieve
  your goals
• No ready technologies
• Develop new technologies, learning by doing
• Wicked problems open opportunities for creative
  engineers

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Technological lock-in

• In the early phases of technological advance,
  many paths are promising but too little is known
  about potential impacts to choose the best paths.
  Later on, when more is known, options are
  greatly restricted.
• D Sarewitz Ways of Knowing Novel Materials

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American Electric Powers coal-fired power plant,
Cheshire, Ohio
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Examples of Technological Lock-in

• Building coal-fired power plants
• 50 year life, high initial costs but cheap fuel
• Turn new plants into culprits as the Call to
  Action tried to do.
• or
• When they must be rebuilt, the culprit may be
  your ally!
• They do face extra burdens help them adapt.
• Buy them off, cheaply.
• Help AEP finance new, cleaner power plants.

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Are wicked problems moral issues?

• At the outset, we have an obligation to recognize
  wicked problems
• But culprits and risks abound we need allies.
• Develop a vision of where you want to go
• be humble acknowledge uncertainties, learn as
  you go
• turn culprits into allies whenever you can.

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Policy to address wicked problems

• Hedge your investments
• Multiple strategies no bickering
• Low-carbon technologies
• Energy efficiency
• Conservation and the simple life
• Use multiple tools
• Regulations
• Cap-and-trade
• Performance standards
• Public disclosure of emissions, carbon content,
  etc.
• State and local laboratories of democracy not
  just the federal government

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• Build a learning system to improve scientific,
  bureaucratic, and public understanding of the
  problem and possible remedies
• www.nanoriskframework.com
• 3. Expect surprises, take advantage of
  opportunities scientific discoveries,
  technological breakthroughs, policy windows.
• 4. The perfect is the enemy of the good.
• Be un-relenting dont give up. This is your
  life.

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Politics for wicked problems

• Humans gravitate to stories where the plot
  revolves around a single dramatic event rather
  than where the ending is driven by slow
  accumulation of change
• (Robert Lempert et al.
• Shaping the Next 100 Years, RAND, 2004)

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• The past is consistent with many different
  futures scenarios will open your mind and raise
  hopes.
• Scenarios can inject technical plausibility and
  narrative concreteness into the public debate
  help people learn.

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• 1. Define an acceptable condition its your
  goal
• 2. Imagine different paths to get to the goal
• Scientific
• Technologies
• Economic drivers
• Governance
• Culture and morals
• 3. Assess risk-of-policy not
  predict-then-act
• 4. Be honest about your goal (20 reduction by
  2020?)
• - Its a only an informed guess about the
  future.
• Use metrics to evaluate progress and educate
  about uncertainties both risks and
  opportunities.

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Fragmentation of government in the US

• Legislative-executive-judicial separation of
  powers
• Multiple Congressional committees
• Federal-state-local government

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87,576 independent governments
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• In a fragmented world
• Its hard to get agreement on anything new.
• Its easier to stop action than to take action.
• This has traditionally been thought to be
  acceptable in the US our system places a higher
  value on liberty than on government effectiveness.

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so . . .

• Policy windows must open to allow big changes
• Dramatic crisis gets the publics attention
• A politician wants to get attention, perhaps to
  run for a higher office, is willing to take a
  risk by offering a solution to the crisis
• A policy entrepreneur gives the politician a
  fresh idea about a policy that can respond to the
  crisis
• Everyone lines up to support the fresh idea
• to address the crisis

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Humphrey. Not elected in 1968
Nixon worried about 72
Muskie hoping to win in 72
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• Richard Nixon, elected President in 1968
• Ed Muskie had made his reputation as an advocate
  for the environment . . .
• and was running against Nixon in 1972.
• Nixons fresh idea the federal government would
  preempt state regulation
• Result
• National Environmental Policy Act 1969
• EPA created 1970
• Clean Air Act of 1970

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National leaders committed to action on climate
change
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• Businesses supporting a 60-90 cut in CO2 by 2050
• GE
• Merrill Lynch
• Duke Energy
• Alcoa
• Dupont
• Caterpillar
• Lehman Brothers
• BPAmerica
• and others

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So . . . . . . . . . . .

• Climate Change Act of 2007. 08, 09 or 2010 ?
  ? ?
• What is the fresh idea?
• Will cap-and-trade still be fresh in 2010?

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Initial steps in 2007-08

• GHG inventory and registry
• Ban new conventional coal-fired plants??
• RDD for renewables carbon sequestration
• More state GHG plans
• Local/personal commitments to buy low-carbon
  electricity
• Court ok for Californias low-carbon car
• Higher CAFE standards fuel efficiency??

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Action in 2009-2010??

• An aggressive national goal 60 by 2020
• Federal cap-and-trade legislation
• New federal-state-business partnership for
  developing low-carbon technologies
• Then . . .
• New federal-state partnership to build
  infrastructure for
• - for low-carbon cities
• - for adapting to climate change

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Imagine a Stable Climate

• Understand the Planetary Problem (to the extent
  that you can)
• List and analyze the policy options
• Take a stand a technology, institution,
  approach
• Experiment, fail, learn, succeed
• Imagine Yourself Solving this Problem