PCE Statistics for Food and Energy

1
PCE Statistics for Food and Energy

• Clint McCully
• Chief, Research Group
• National Income and Wealth Division

APDU Annual Conference September 25, 2008
2
PCE Estimates

• Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) includes
  purchases of goods and services for personal use
• Business and government purchases not included
• Purchases by self-employed included in business
  purchases
• Purchases financed through government social
  benefits included in PCE (e.g. food stamps)

3
PCE Food and Energy

• Food
• Food and alcoholic beverages purchased for
  off-premise consumption
• Purchased meals and beverages
• Food furnished to employees and food produced and
  consumed on farms
• Energy
• Gasoline and oil
• Fuel oil and coal
• Gas
• Electricity

4
Food Energy Sources and Methods

• Food
• Benchmark Commodity flow (off-premise)
• Food services sales (purchased
  meals)
• Other periods Retail control method
• Energy
• Gasoline Oil Q x P
• Quantities FHWA EIA for total
• VIUS, NAFA, BEA stocks data for
  allocation
• Price ? (Q by grade P by grade)/ ? Q from
  EIA
• Fuel Oil Coal Commodity flow retail control
• Electricity gas Residential revenue from EIA
• Deflation CPI component indexes

5
Food and Energy Shares of PCE
1981 highest share 9.2
2008 (7 mths) 6.8
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PCE Price Indexes
7
Food Price Changes
8
Food Prices and Consumption
9
PCE Energy Price Indexes
10
Gasoline Price Quanity
July 08 highest relative price
2nd oil crisis
Arab oil embargo
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Trucks and Gasoline Prices
Quantity index of new truck sales
12
Airline Prices and Consumption
9/11 aftermath