LECTURE 15: THE BIRTH OF THE COLD WAR

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LECTURE 15 THE BIRTH OF THE COLD WAR
1. Introduction To Part II Of Class --
Explaining Historical Events Navigating The
Future 2. The Cold War US/Soviet Relations
1947-1991 3. Birth Of The Cold War Why Did It
Emerge? A) Systemic Factors B) State Level
Factors C) Individual Level Factors 4. Group
Security vs. Individual Rights Kennan Versus
Lippmann
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THE BIRTH OF THE COLD WAR
Cold War
Hot War
Germany Attacks Soviet Union
Truman Doctrine
Soviet Union Collapses
Pearl Harbor
WWII Starts
WWII Ends
NSC-68
Sept 1939
Aug 1945
Mar 1947
June 1941
Aug 1991
Dec 1941
Sept 1950

• COLD WAR IS OVER-DETERMINED MANY FACTORS
  CONTRIBUTED
• BUT COLD WAR IS NOT INEVITABLE
• WHY IS UNDERSTANDINGTHE BIRTH OF THE COLD WAR
  IMPORTANT?
• -- EVOLUTION OF ENTIRE WORLD SHAPED BY CONFLICT
• -- PREVENT IT FROM HAPPENING AGAIN

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EMERGENCE IS SURPRSINGLY UNEXPECTED

• THREE-QUARTERS OF ALL NAZI SOLDIERS FALL
  FIGHTING SOVIETS
• SOVIET WARTIME DEATHS FAR EXCEED U.S.

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SYSTEMIC EXPLANATIONS
Destruction Of Common Threats Germany And Japan
Balance Of Power
Redistribution Of Power A Bipolar World
()
Arms Buildup
Soviet Support of Communists In France Italy
()
()
U.S. Drops Arms Into The Ukraine
()
USSR Is Continental Power U.S Forward Bases
Blue Water Navy
(-)
But No Shared Borders No Checkerboard Alliances
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STATE/SOCIETAL EXPLANATIONS
SECRETIVE AND AUTOCRATIC NATURE OF SOVIET
GOVERNMENT
SOVIET COMMUNIST IDEOLOGY
INTEREST GROUP PRESSURE THE POLISH VOTE
ECONOMIC INTEREST GROUPS IN THE U.S.
U.S. ANTI-COMMUNIST IDEOLOGY
RED BAITING TOUGH ON COMMUNISM WINS VOTES
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INDIVIDUAL LEVEL EXPLANATIONS
()
The Lesson Of Munich
SECURITY DILEMMA Revisionist vs. Status Quo
()
Cognitive Biases
POOR DECISION MAKING Truman vs. Roosevelt --
Last Aides Advice -- Inconsistent Statements
()
Misperception The Fundamental Attribution Error
Soviet Actions Hostility U.S. Actions
Circumstances
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SUMMARY FACTORS INVOLVED IN THEBIRTH OF THE
COLD WAR
1. Systemic Factors Balance Of
Power Yes Security Dilemma Yes Geography (Via
Security Dilemma) Overall No 2. Domestic
Factors U.S. Interest Groups Yes But Minor U.S.
Red Baiting Worsens USSR Autocratic Secrecy (Via
Security Dilemma) Yes U.S. Anti-communist
Ideology Yes Soviet Communist Ideology Yes Econo
mic Interest Groups No 3 Individual Level
Factors Lesson Of Munich Yes Trumans Cognitive
Biases No Fundamental Attribution Error Yes
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KENNAN VERSUS LIPPMANN
THE GREAT DEBATE
GEORGE KENNAN (Mr. X) AMERICAN DIPLOMAT
WALTER LIPPMANN NEWSPAPER COLUMNIST
RUSSIANS/SOVIETS ARE EXPANSIONIST
COSTLY AND MILITARISTIC
DETERRENT POLICY NEEDED FOR CONTAINMENT
UNDERMINES DEMOCRACY
IN LONG RUN, COMMUNISM WILL COLLAPSE
SECURITY DILEMMA
BOTH ARTICLES WRITTEN AT THE START OF THE COLD
WAR -- WHAT POLICY SHOULD THE U.S. ADOPT?
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Democracy and the War on Terror
Individual Rights Versus National Security
Guantanamo Cuba
Yaser Esam Hamdi Allegedly Fought With Taliban
The Patriot Act
Jose Padilla Dirty Bomb Suspect
American Law Up for Renewal
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WHY IS THE BIRTH OF THE COLD WAR IMPORTANT?
1947
MASSIVE REDISTRIBUTION OF POWER
GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO INTENTIONS
Today
LESSONS OF THE COLD WAR
SECURITY DILEMMA
APPLICABILITY OF THE LESSON OF MUNICH
WEAKNESS OF RUSSIA CHINA WILL LEAD TO BALANCING
U.S. ANTI-COMMUNIST IDEOLOGY HINDERS COMPROMISE