Title: Program Flow Physics 101
1Program Flow Physics 101
November 6, 2006
2A lean walk through history
Harvey House ca. 1895
Highland Park ca. 1920
3Deviation reduction strategies
Problem Detection inspectors, MRB, JIC inventory,
fire fighting/recovery/heroism
Problem Detection inspectors, MRB, JIC inventory,
fire fighting/recovery/heroism
Problem Solving SPC, teamwork, 7 Old Tools
80-90
Problem Prevention hoshin kanri, reliable
TDP/PDP, flow production, TPM, 5S, SMED, poka
yoke, jidoka, supplier support systems, heijunka,
discplined and flexible standardization
4Deviation reduction strategies
5Deviation reduction strategies
5
6s
Problem Detection inspectors, MRB, JIC inventory,
fire fighting/recovery/heroism
5
Problem Solving SPC, teamwork, 7 Old Tools
90
Problem Prevention hoshin kanri, reliable
TDP/PDP, flow production, TPM, 5S, SMED, poka
yoke, jidoka, supplier support systems, heijunka,
disciplined and flexible standardization
6 Session Agenda
- why the Toyota Way matters
- the physics of program flow
- the Toyota Way
7Some market capitalizations, 2006
201B
13B
8 Session Agenda
- why the Toyota Way matters
- the physics of program flow
- the Toyota Way
9Toyota, transportation powerhouse
- Toyotas recent record
- Overtook DaimlerChrysler as 3 in U.S. sales 1
in Japan 2 in world 2003 - Market Cap that exceeds GMs, Fords, and
DaimlerChryslers combined by 50 - Successful, well planned and executed
globalization/localization - 2004 profit twice that of Ford GM combined
- 30 Billion in cash and securities reserves
- Toyotas supply base adds black box 70 of
the value to Toyota vehicles - PD cycles consistently less than its best
competitors - rarely misses milestones - Greater product variety with fewer resources
committed - 80 of engineers time is value-added vs. 20
at competitors - A leader in introducing game-changing technology
e.g., hybrid-power vehicles
The real difference between Toyota and other
vehicle manufacturers is not the Toyota
Production System, it is the Toyota Development
System. Kosaku Yamada, Lexus Chief Engineer
10How can we best earn design value?
percent complete
time
Planned RTP
11Learning to see PM process waste
- Hand-offs cause information losses,
accountability losses - External quality reinforcement - inspection by
others delays information generation - Waiting is rampant in PD. major source of
long queues and long lead times - Transaction waste e.g., bidding multiple
suppliers, long negotiations, big SOWs - Re-invention waste is evidence of ELD (Enterprise
Learning Disability) - Weak schedule discipline worsens task
inter-arrival time variation and lengthens cycles - High variation in process capacity and task
inter-arrival times - System over-utilization - as utilization reaches
capacity, cycle times balloon non-linearly - Large information batches create variation in
capacity and task inter-arrival times - Redundant tasks e.g., the check-checkers work
is checked by the check-check-checkers - Stop and go tasks - frequent shut down and set up
diffuses attention - Unsynchronized concurrent work - manufacturing
gets out too far on the limb
High Performance Product Development A Systems
Approach to a Lean Product Development Process,
James M. Morgan, unpublished dissertation, 2002
12Toyota has names for these things
13These waste elements interact
14Server capacity and cycle time
15Server capacity and cycle time
For constrained servers, cycle time worsens
non-linearly with capacity utilization
Cycle Time
Capacity Utilization
16Discovery generates surprise
Uncertainty re task arrival and server capacity
means
muda
mura
Server utilization can rise unexpectedly
and/or Server availability can drop unexpectedly
muri
17Capacity, variance, cycle time
?2 1
Mean Cycle Time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mean Capacity Demanded, percent of available
Hopp, Wallace J. and Mark L. Spearman, Factory
Physics Foundations of Manufacturing Management,
McGraw Hill 1996
18people, practice, and technology
Process development and specification should be
done off-line, by specialists, and then deployed
to the workforce.
19Not a good people tactic
We need faster cycle times, so lets give em
stretch goals!
20Example of bad technology strategy
Hairball IT systems exacerbate information flow
unevenness
21Information flow and cost over-run, actual data
and conclusions
- Two requirements
- Easy availability of information
- Communication of emerging knowledge to enable
learning and innovation
Hoult et al., Cost Awareness in Design The Role
of Data Commonality, 1995
22 Session Agenda
- why the Toyota Way matters
- the physics of program flow
- the Toyota Way
23Toyotas vision, 1997
Thanks to Takashi Tanaka, Q-V System
24Toyota reality - The Devils Cycle
muri
mura
muda
mura
mura
Thanks to Takashi Tanaka, Q-V System
25Bringing visual factory thinking to PD
Shop floor visual factory
Program oobeya room
26Trumping the Devils Cycle
27IT for Lean Program Management
Integral PDS Architecture
28Achieving the AD21 Goal
29What this looks like to an engineer
30PM cycle time physics mura, muri, muda
?2 1
Mean Cycle Time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Mean Capacity Demanded, percent of available
Hopp, Wallace J. and Mark L. Spearman, Factory
Physics Foundations of Manufacturing Management,
McGraw Hill 1996