Global Change

1
Global Change Forest Biology

• Course mechanics Web page
• http//www.cfr.washington.edu/Classes.esc.202/Inde
  x.html
• Syllabus Description, guidelines, outcomes, etc.
• Class schedule when, what, still under const.
• Lecture notes web and powerpoint.
• Assignments Web, Critical T. E., Term Poster
  Project, Final
• Text, .pdf files, web

2
Course focus/emphasis

• Forest trees forest biology Why?
• Context Scales of biological organization.
  Ability to go from known to unknown. Certain
  rules exist
• Theme There will be change. Critical questions
  then are (1) how will organisms, populations and
  species deal with change? (2) What are the
  alternatives and how are humans affecting the
  alternatives? (3) What are the large scale
  effects?

3
Climate Change

• Historical patterns (lessons)
• Current situation
• Impact on plants and animals
• Forests as the problem
• Forests as the solution
• Forests and water (editorial in Sunday Seattle
  Times)
• Other issues
• Habitat loss/invasive species
• Biodiversity including other issues
• Air pollution
• Ozone depletion

4
Historical Climate Change
Paradise 1925
Paradise 1995
North America about 15,000 years ago
5
Late Quaternary Warming - John Withey
Northern pocket gopher
least shrew
collared lemming
Linda Brubaker will re-enforce this
6
Introduction to course

• What do I mean by global change?
• Given climate in this century will not be the
  same as in the last. Why?
• Hot topics Cycles, Kyoto Conference, Carbon

7
2001 Started with a Drought, ended wet!
LOCAL
Implications on fish, hydro-electric, dams,
irrigation, commercial residential water
GLOBAL
The eight hottest years on record have occurred
since 1990. In order, they are 1998, 2001, 1997,
1995, 1990, 1999, 2000 and 1991.
2002 started wet and ended dry
8
Broader Social and Economic Context
The Seattle Times Local News Wednesday, October
13, 1999 To save fish, 60-cent boost in water
bills proposed by Eli Sanders Water the
Klamath River Salmon
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Examples
Climate and species distribution
Air pollution ponderosa pine
10
Consequences of global warming
Using a model, lets assume that global average
temperature increases 3 to 5oC, what happens to
the communities of Yellowstone Natl Park?
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Disturbances
Fire, flood, wind, avalanche, eruption
Extent of 1988 fires in Yellowstone
Serotinous cones in lodgepole pine
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Where do we go from here?

• Unravel and explore these issues
• Develop background
• Work on exercises
• Develop group posters
• Service learning
• Learn a little about basic tree biology
• Learn how information changes, varies and is
  biased -- learn how to be an effective evaluator
  of information ideas