Today I

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• Today Ill give you two reports for the price of
  one.
• Report of the Energy PMP activities.
• Report of the 5 PMP workshop on ST for
  Sustainable
• Well-Being.

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Energy PMP had a very productive 1/2 day.

• Session was organized by Bruce Stram.
• It included four formal talks.
• Jef Ongena on ITER with Akira Miyahara and
  Francois Waelbroeck construction started.
• Akira Miyahara
• on broader approach fusion demo reactor,
  material research etc.
• earthquake safety of nuclear power plants.
• Hisham Khatib on oil prices.
• Bruce Stram on the California GHG emission
  policies.
• All of these presentations will be on the
  WFS/Energy web site http//www.federationofscient
  ists.org/

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Energy PMP report continued.

• Also, Carmen Difiglio. Bruce Stram and Bill
  Fulkerson reported on the technical session in
  the Vatican on the Framework for Managing Climate
  Change.
• And election of a new PMP chair assuming approval.

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2007 Earthquake Disaster--Effect on nuclear
plant in Japan

• On July 17, 2007, a severe 6.8 earthquake shook
  N-Japan.
• It hit a large nuclear power station (8.2 GW)
  supplying electricity to Tokyo Electric Company,
  Ltd.
• Plant 1 suffered acceleration of 680 Gal at the
  basement which contained the reactor much more
  than design value of 273 Gal.
• The plant survived with minimal damage probably
  because of safety factor design margin, but the
  plant is still shut down.
• Valuable information has been obtained on how
  nuclear power stations should be protected from
  an earthquake.

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Governor Schwarzeneggers and Californias
Efforts to control GHGs

• June 2005 Executive Order on Climate Change
• greenhouse gases reduction goals
• to 2000 levels by 2010
• to 1990 levels by 2020 (30 below BAU)
• to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050
• AB 32 the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006
• www.ClimateChange.ca.gov

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Science and Technology for Sustainable Well-being

• An open discussion among 5 PMPs Energy,
  Climate, Limits to Development, Water, and
  Pollution
• Erice, August 19, 2008

John P. Holdren, Science Mag. 319, p 424-434,
Jan. 25, 2008
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Workshop was organized by the 5 PMP Chairs

• Energy Bill Fulkerson for Art Rosenfeld
• Climate Bill Sprigg
• Limits to Development Geraldo Serra
• Water Bob Clark
• Pollution Lorne Everett Frank Parker

Rapporteur Jef Ongena
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To Holdren sustainable well-being entails

• pursuing sustainable development to achieve
  well-being where it is now most conspicuously
  absent. as well as converting to a sustainable
  basis the maintenance and expansion of well-being
  where it already exists but is being provided by
  unsustainable means.

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Holdren identified 5 specific challenges

• Meeting the basic needs of the poor.
• Competition for land, water and biota.
• Anthropogenic changes in the oceans.
• The Energy-Economy-Environment dilemma (the E3
  dilemma).
• Moving toward elimination of nuclear weapons.

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India just issued its National Action Plan on
Climate Change

• Maintaining a high growth rate is essential for
  increasing the living standards of the vast
  majority of our people and reducing their
  vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.
  (p,2)
• But India is determined that its per capita
  greenhouse gas emissions will at no point exceed
  that of developed countries even as we pursue our
  development objectives. (p.2)
• In other words for India poverty trumps climate.

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Science and technology can reduce the cost
making the sustainable transition more
palatable. .
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What is proposed for Erice 09 and beyond--focus
on the developing world

• Focus on one developing country and let their
  experts give their views of solving their E3
  problems and of the role of ST and the developed
  world.
• Start with China, then India the year after and
  an African country the third year.
• How to deploy sustainable, efficient electricity
  for the poor?

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What is proposed for Erice 09 and beyond--focus
on the developing world continued.

• Expose the problems and possibilities with
  deployment of advanced technologies, for example.
• Efficiency
• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
• Biofuels and net GHG emissions.
• Advanced water management systems
• Front ending green chemistry
• Commercial competitive mined geological
  repositories for spent nuclear fuel.

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Oh Lord, give us a silver bullet. Ans Not yet,
you havent suffered enough. For one thing you
are seriously under-funding energy technology
RD globally, both by the public and by the
private sectors.
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Two other important ideas were discussed.

• Pursue a global center with virtual outreach for
  advancing climate modeling and related science.
  (Bill Sprigg will discuss this.)
• Develop a geoengineering RD plan.

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Erice Climate Management Recommendation
2007Geoengineering.

• Although the largest parts of the RD budget on
  countering the effects of climate change should
  go to mitigation and adaptation, a significant
  portion should be directed toward approaches to
  geoengineering, including stratospheric aerosols.
  Both the effectiveness and the side effects of
  these approaches must be evaluated theoretically
  and by field experiment before they can be
  seriously considered for use.

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(No Transcript)
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ITER More than half of the world population is
represented

• Since 6 december 2005also India joined !
• Kazachstan is proposed as a new member

Unique project in all of its aspects
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Conclusions

• For the first time, mankind has has the knowledge
  to confine and controle a fusion plasma at a
  temperature of 100-200 million degrees.
• Let us apply this knowledge to find an
  additional solution to provide our future energy
  needs
• ITER is a genuine endeavour
• 7 Partners world wide (perhaps soon 8)
• Substantial participation of developing countries
• Urgency of the energy problem !
• Fusion is not only for the rich West
• Unique and fascinating physics
• A promising solution (among others) for our
  future energy supply

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Beyond ITER (Work Done Work to be Done)

• Over 1000 necessary items for DEMO Reactor
  Construction were identified and listed.
• 14 Mev neutron source for material testing is in
  progress.
• Wrote a comprehensive road map toward DEMO
  Reactor in 2050.
• Necessary to increase the numbers of scientists
  and engineers who will engage in DEMO Design and
  Construction.
• ? ?

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The fundamentals predominate--Lack of spare oil
production capacity

• Presently the difference between production
  capacity and global demand does not exceed 2 MBD.
• Both demand and supply are inelastic in the short
  term, it takes 5-15 years to affect real change
  in productioin capacity.
• Any decrease in production capacity(politics,
  threats, strikes, weather, etc.)will drastically
  push up prices.

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Fundamentals continued--rapid global economic
growth

• Rapid economic growth that averaged 4-5 annually
  for the past few years.
• Oil production did not respond to this rapid
  global economic growth.

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But market is reacting demand is down and supply
up.

• In Europe demand fell by 0.4 this year.
• Global economic growth is slowing.
• Present U.S. demand of 20 MBD is lowest for 5
  years and will fall 2 next year.
• OPEC output in July was 32.8 MBD up from 30.9 in
  07.
• OPEC production capacity in 2010 37MBD.

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The outlook is uncertain, as usual.

• Oil is a strategic commodity.
• Price is determined by supply and demand
  fundamentals.
• But other factors contribute speculation, dollar
  parity, refinery bottlenecks, disruptions, etc.
• Generally speaking the future outlook is bearish
  rather than bullish.

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E3 Dilemma Issues etc. match the 5 PMPs

• Energy future planning for climate and oil
  security.
• Water resources planning.
• Adaptative capacity building, e.g. for famine
  avoidance and to manage globalization.
• Pollution control ecosystem protection.
• Managing the population bomb.
• Partnering for progress --the role of the
  developed world.

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Energy is at the heart of solving Holdrens E3
Dilemma

• It is a driver of climate change.
• It is a driver for development
• Making development sustainable means making
  energy services sustainable
• Developed and developing countries are
  interlocked by climate change.
• But the developing world will drive climate
  change from now on.

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Energy and sustainable well-being goals can
conflict in a carbon constrained society

• To avoid climate change planetary emergency risks
  the worlds energy systems (and the collective
  management of the biosphere) must be reinvented
  and rebuilt.
• The problem will be confounded by conventional
  oil production peaking.
• The transition will be expensive.
• But the developing world wants to grow rapidly to
  enhance economic well-being.
• This is the E3 dilemma.