Title: Positive Mental Training
1(No Transcript)
2Positive Mental Training
- A New Approach to Mental Health
- Building Mental Resilience
- Promoting Positive Mental Health
- Dr Alastair Dobbin
- Ms Sheila Ross, MSc
-
3Top 10 GP annual contact rates1 per 1,000
population2 by condition3, standardised for age,
sex and deprivation 2004/05p
4Figure 2 - Number of DDDs per 1000 population
(aged 15) per day 1992/93 to 2005/06
Source Information Services Division.
Healthcare Information Group
5- Outline
- What is Positive Mental Training
- What is Hypnosis?
- Placebo
- New theories in depression
- Break
- Treating depression - groups
- Evaluation - GP survey
- More of Positive Mental Training
- Patient Video
- The Edinburgh Research and Roll Out
- Discussion
-
-
6 7What is Positive Mental Training?
- A self help modular programme
- To listen to at home
- A DVD and 3 CDs
- Over 12 weeks one 18 min track a day
- Simple effective
8- Based on the Swedish model of Integrated Mental
Training - Developed for Peak Performance in Sport
- Used over the last 30 years
9- negative triggers /fear conditioning
- Poor self-image/limiting self belief
- Access to good self image/problem solving
- Accessing positive memories/conditioning
Depression Peak performance
10What is Hypnosis?
- State of relaxation and absorption
- Induced by focused attention
- - Eye closure, relaxation, suggestion
- Decreases sympathetic autonomic arousal effects
11Self Hypnosis
- Regular, systematic and long term self-hypnotic
training was superior to hetero-hypnosis
(hypnotist present) in a variety of measured
dimensions. - Audio taped hypnotic inductions were as effective
as inductions given by a present hypnotiser
measured on a standard scale of hypnotic
susceptibility (Stanford Scale)
12Triggers
- A trigger, conditioning -can be established
after a single event - (negative trauma, positive happy).
- Any stimulus for instance a word, movement,
behaviour or situation, but also a thought can
become a trigger - In those situations where the subject is unaware
of the presence of the trigger such a trigger can
not be changed by voluntary effort
13Self Hypnosis
- A positive emotion such as the ideal performing
feeling can be borrowed from a previous event and
then conditioned to a future event. - Lars Eric Unestahl 1973 Hypnosis and post
hypnotic suggestions (PhD thesis Uppsala
University) VEJE international Orebro, Sweden.
14 15- What drives this process?
- Survival
- Why is it unconscious?
- Emotion
16- When a stimulus has become a trigger it works
even in those situations where the subject is
unaware of the presence of the trigger. Such a
trigger can not be changed by voluntary effort.
17Ventral Stream and Dorsal Stream
18February 2008
19The Power of Placebo
- Suggestion and Medication in the Treatment of
Depression
20PlaceboA Non-specific Treatment
21PlaceboA Non-specific Treatment
- Pain
- Blood pressure
- Heart rate
- Anxiety
- Depression
- Parkinsons disease
- Angina
- Autoimmune diseases
- Alzheimers disease
- Rheumatoid arthritis
- Asthma
- Contact dermatitis
- Gastric function
- Sexual dysfunction
- Ulcers
- Warts
- Life expectancy
- etc
22Placebo as a Specific Treatment
- Placebo morphine lowers pain
- Placebo diazepam lowers anxiety
- Placebo caffeine increases alertness
- Placebo antidepressants lower depression
-
-
-
23Specific Factors Affecting the Magnitude of the
Placebo Effect
- Sedative
- Blue
- Red
- Orange
- Stimulant
- Red
- Blue
- Analgesic
- Red
- White
- Blue
- Green
24Factors Affecting the Placebo Effect
25Factors Affecting the Placebo Effect
- Colour
- Dose
- Strength of drug
- Brand name
- Mode of administration
26 Placebo Surgery
- Angina
- Real surgery 73 improvement
- Sham surgery 83 improvement
- Osteoarthritis of the knee
- 2 Weeks Placebo gt real surgery
- 2 years No difference
27Factors Affecting the Placebo Effect
- Colour
- Dose
- Strength of drug
- Brand name
- Mode of administration
- Adherence
28Adherence
29Adherence
30Factors Affecting the Placebo Effect
- Colour
- Dose
- Strength of drug
- Brand name
- Mode of administration
- Adherence
- Condition being treated
31Placebo Response as a Percent of Drug Response
32A Meta-Analysis of Published Clinical Trials
- (Kirsch Sapirstein, 1998)
33Pre-post Effect Sizes for Drug, Placebo, and
No-treatment Controls
34Partitioning the Antidepressant Drug Response
35Types of Medication
36Percent of Drug Response Duplicated by Placebo
37Other Medications
- Lithium
- Amylobarbitone
- Barbiturate
- Liothyronine
- Synthetic thyroid hormone
- Adinazolam
- Benzodiazepine
38What do all of these active drugs have in common,
that they do not share with inert placebo?
39Side Effects
40Therapeutic Effects of Imipramine and Placebo
41Side Effects of Imipramine and Placebo
42Why are Side Effects Important?
- Informed consent
- May be given placebo
- Double blind
- Therapeutic effects may take weeks
- Side effects
- Most patients assigned to active drug break blind
(Rabkin et al., 1986)
43New Extra Strength Placebo
44Active vs. Inert Placebo(Published Studies)
Outcome Significant drug placebo difference?
Percentage published studies
45Listening to Prozacbut Hearing Placebo(Kirsch
Sapirstein, 1998)
46Reaction to Listening to Prozac
47Analysis of the FDA Data(Kirsch et al.,
2002)(Kirsch et al 2008)
- Fluoxetine (Prozac)
- Paroxetine (Seroxat/Paxil)
- Sertraline (Lustral/Zoloft)
- Venlafaxine (Effexor)
- Nefazodone (Dutonin/Serzone)
- Citalopram (Cipramil/Celexa)
48Advantages of the FDA data set
- Includes unpublished trials
- Same outcome measure (HAM-D)
49- Duplication by Placebo 82
- Mean HAM-D difference 1.80 points
- NICE Clinical significance 3 points
50Active placebos versus antidepressants for
depressionMoncrieff J, Wessely S, Hardy
RCochrane Collaboration on depression. April
2003
- Authors' conclusions
- The more conservative estimates from the present
analysis found that differences between
antidepressants and active placebos were small.
This suggests that unblinding effects may inflate
the efficacy of antidepressants in trials using
inert placebos. Further research into unblinding
is warranted.
51Benedetti further reading
- Colloca L, Lopiano L, Lanotte M, Benedetti F
(2004) Overt versus covert treatment for pain,
anxiety and Parkinson's disease. Lancet Neurol 3
679-684 - Benedetti F, Mayberg H, Weger T Stohler c,
Zubieta H Neurobiological Mechanisms of the
Placebo Effect The Journal of Neuroscience, Novemb
er 9, 2005, 25(45)10390-10402
52 Theories in Depression
- Recent research into the nature of depression.
53Theories of Depression
- By the end of this section you will understand
- What is CBT and why does it work
- What is over-generalisation
- What is the Hippocampus
- What is the Amygdala.
- What is an emotion. What is a feeling.
- Threat Perception and Dorsal and Ventral stream
processing - What is the Social Engagement system.
- How does Mindfulness reduce depression
54Aaron Beck
- Dysfunctional thinking in depression caused by
a schema - a set of fixed negative beliefs,
activated during depression. Measured by
Dysfunctional Attitudes Scale (DAS) one hundred
statements with graded responses.1 - Low mood measured by the Becks Depression Index,
(BDI) a snapshot of current mood.2 -
55- From this was established
- Cognitive Behavioural Therapy
-
- Now the dominant therapy for the treatment of
recurrent depression (and a host of other mental
disorders). - CBT says that by looking at the logical errors
in our thinking, we can escape from recurrent
self reinforcing negative beliefs and behaviours.
56- Example a new friend says they will phone but
doesnt - We feel depressed. We assume friend doesnt like
us. - Cognitive change examine the possible causes
- Friend doesnt like me/ friend is too busy and
stressed/friend is nervous of rejection/friend
has lost phone number - How do we know which applies? We dont
- Behavioural change phone friend
- Positive outcome reinforces the strategy.
57CBT
- So, dysfunctional beliefs (nobody likes me) leads
to negative behaviour (no point in phoning them).
Question belief, change behaviour and
reinforce functional belief. - This leads to a permanent change it reduces
relapse better than pharmacotherapy even though
it is no more effective in the acute attack.
58The Scientific Method
- A Good Theory makes the best fit with the
observations, and if another theory comes along
with a better fit, then the model needs to change
to reflect this theory. - Steven Hawking Today Programme 30/11/2006
59Causal Factors in Depression
- Relapse is very common in depression
- Studies in relapse indicate causes-mediators
- Measure all the variables you can after first
occurrence of depression - Wait for relapse
- Find the most accurate predictor
- This represents the mediator the closest factor
to vulnerability to depression
60Predictors in depression
- Recovery is the same from CBT and
anti-depressants but the former are less likely
to relapse.1 2 - Dysfunctional thinking level does not predict
relapse Dysfunctional thinking improves as
depression lifts with CBT before the CBT
challenges negative thinking rationally.3 - Q.V. Access to a set of dysfunctional beliefs is
not the cause of depression.
61Predictors in depression
- Overgeneral memory 1 predictor in most
studies.1,2,5 - Unaffected by low mood, but modifiable.
- Measurable
- Applies to positive and negative memories, more
to positive. - A measure of categoric recall as opposed to
specific recall. - Negative What does the word anger make you
think of? my aunt always (categoric) used to
take me out if my father was angry
(overgeneralised) , I remember once my aunt
took me to the zoo when my father was angry
(specific) - Positive Word Happiness - a walk in the
country last Sunday (specific) or walks in the
countryside (over-G). - Not improved in the recovered depressive by CBT,
but improved by Mindfulness based Cognitive
Therapy (MBCT) exercises. - Measured using valenced word cues (categoric
recall).
62- QV Loss of access to specific (categoric)
memories (overgeneralisation) predicts
persistence in depression and depressive response
to stress. - Why might this be?
- What is the hippocampus?
63Why is this important?1
64Limbic System
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66Clusters of new cells that were produced in the
dentate gyrus of an adult rat. (a) New cells that
were observed 1, 7 and 21 d after birth.
Progression from clusters (day 1) to a dispersed
distribution along the length of the subgranular
zone (SGZ day 7) and into the granule cell layer
(GCL day 21) is evident.
67New Neuron Formation 1
CA Cornu Ammonis Context and time storage DG
Dentate Gyrus Links current experiences (from
sensory cortex via entorhinal cortex) to form
contextual spatial and temporal mempories
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69Neuroanatomy in Depression
- All Studies on Neuroanatomy show
- Enlarged and overactive Amygdala (fear Centre
overactive in depression and PTSD) close links to
hypothalamus (HP-A axis) and sympathetic nervous
system. - This leads to exaggerated perception of threat.
70Limbic System
71Ventral Stream and Dorsal Stream
72Theories of Emotion
James Lange now dominant theory better fit with
subsequent evidence
73Overgeneralisation is reduced by thinking
styles
742 thinking styles
- Ruminative analytical or abstract, generalised,
superordinate, decontextualised, verbally based
and self evaluative usual thinking style - Experiential Decentred or concrete, wide
attentional field, contextual, process focussed,
specific and subordinate for times of stress
75 Thinking Styles
76Mindfulness has 2 effects
- Teasdale and Watkins postulated that this kind of
meditative therapy had 2 separate mechanisms,
thinking style and external visualisation so
looked at the separate effects of these on mood
and overgeneralisation.1 Improvement in mood
was mediated by external visualisation. Decrease
in overgeneralisation was mediated by thinking
style (self focus). -
77 Ruminative versus Experiential self-focus1
- To focus attention away from the self to
inanimate objects whilst temporarily improving
mood may not be helpful in the long run, it does
not facilitate future processing of dysfunctional
thoughts or memories. - Instead of using external objects/ideas to reduce
self focus, thinking style (ruminative Vs
experiential) may alter the nature of self focus.
78Ruminative versus Experiential self-focus
- Research Question can experiential versus
ruminative thinking influence overgeneral memory - Methods Series of statements with either
- Focus your attention on.. versus
- Use your imagination and concentration to think
about - Result administered to depressed patients 1
79 Table 1. Means and S.D. (in
parentheses) for proportions of memories recalled
that were categoric and mood ratings
- Note Despondency is the self-report of
despondency on a 0100 visual analogue scale.
Happiness is the self-report of happiness on a
0100 visual analogue scale. Categoric is the
proportion of memories recalled that were
categoric.
80Thinking Style
- most people by default in familiar situations
use abstract construals (ruminative style)
focused on meanings consequences and
implications of actions, but when faced with
difficult novel or complex situations often move
towards more concrete (decentered) levels of
processing
- Ref Watkins, E. (2008). Constructive and
Unconstructive Repetitive Thought. Psychological
Bulletin, 134, 163 206
81Metacognitive Monitoring
- From work done in the early 1990s a group of
researchers found that as well as traditional
CBT, Mindfulness Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT)
also reduced relapse in depression.1 2 Instead
of examining their negative thought processes and
how this influenced outcomes, MBCT had
participants doing exercises such as picturing
the Grand canyon at sunset for 8 minutes. - They developed a way of measuring resilience to
depression. They called such resilience
Metacognitive monitoring, and the scale for
measuring it was based on autobiographical
memory, called the MACAM (Measure of Awareness
and Coping in Autobiographical Memory). - They then conducted 3 studies which showed that
the MACAM was the best predictor of relapse in
depression studies. So a measure based on
memory, not on a dysfunctional schema is the best
predictor of relapse in depression, so the
vulnerability in depression, the loss of
resilience is based on poor memory recall. -
-
-
82Mindfulness Based CBT
- Teasdale 2004 an intervention designed to
increase metacognitive awareness by changing
patients relationship to negative thoughts and
feelings without any attempt to change underlying
beliefs in the content of negative thoughts can
significantly reduce relapse or recurrence in
depression - For up to date review see Longmore Worrell
(2007)
83Summary Part 1
- To help depression we should
- Protect from overgeneralisation by changing
thinking style (attentional manipulation) to
experiential self focus (mental training) - Protect from low mood by thinking of external
objects and reappraisal.
84Problem Solving ExtinctionThe Internal
Re-enforcement Hypothesis1
85Pavlovian Conditioning
CS UCS UCR
Sound (Tone)
Electric Shock
86 Extinction
Avoidance Behaviour
1 2 3 4 5 6 No of
Trials minus Trauma
87- INTERNAL REINFORCEMENT
- HYPOTHESIS
- Eisenhardt D, Menzel R (2007) Extinction
Learning, reconsolidation and the internal
reinforcement hypothesis Neurobiology of Learning
and Memory 87, 2, p167-173
88 RECALL TRIALhas 2 effects simultaneously
Trauma Recall
1
CS2 - UCS CS1 CR2
(UCS)
Extinction
2
CS2 UCS CR3
89Result of Recall(freezing behavioural outcome
of trauma)
Result
Result CR2 CR3
Freezing X - Y X -
Y
90 With Hypnosis removing effects of trauma
(amygdala/hypothalamic uncoupling)
Hypnosis
X 0
Freezing Extinguished
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92Reappraisal - Visualisation -Extinction common
pathway
- Mechanisms of reappraisal, visualisation, and
many other techniques (including placebo
response) may share the same pathway as
extinction - evolution has piggybacked this
technique - ref Delgado, M.R., Nearing, K.I., Ledoux, J.,
Phelps, E.A. (2008). Neural circuitry underlying
the regulation of conditioned fear and its
relation to extinction. Neuron, 59, 829-38
93Break
94- Depression Exercise Groups
95An evaluation of Positive Mental Training in NE
Edinburgh
96Survey outline
- An anonymous questionnaire sent to all doctors in
NE Edinburgh of whom - 22 had attended training
- 48 had not attended training
-
- Replies - 45
- 20 (91) had attended training
- 25 (52) had not attended training
97For those who attended training
98Benefits of training
- 68 those who replied who attended training felt
that they had gained new insights into their
patients mental processes. - 84 of doctors feel better able to cope with
their mental health patients. - 33 of doctors feel better able to cope with
other patients. - 50 of doctors feel better able to cope with
their working practice.
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100Use of Positive Mental Training by the GPs who
attended training
- 100 offer the programme to depressed patients
- newly depressed as an alternative to
anti-depressants - in addition to anti-depressants
- stopping anti-depressants
- 90 for anxiety and panic
- 30 for IBS, migraine, sleep, stress
1011 trained GP reported always low prescribing rate
102(No Transcript)
103Reasons for using
- Self help treatment
- Immediately available
- Validated by research
- Remain actively involved with pts treatment
- Positive feedback from pts
- Specific focus during consultation
- Lack of stigmatisation
104Comments by those using
- A very popular programme even people who just
use CD1 have reported benefit - Excellent addition to list of options available
for depressed and anxious pts (staff!) - Like the way it empowers pts to help themselves,
esp when helped and then minor mood relapse
self help easy to initiate again - Helps mental wellbeing
105What is Positive Mental Training?
- A self help modular programme
- To listen to at home
- A DVD and 3 CDs
- Over 12 weeks one 18 min track a day
- Simple effective
106Its use in Primary Care
- Complies with NICE guidelines
- Fits with stepped care approach
- Library system
- Evidence for good patient preference compliance
107Who for?
- Depressed anxious patients
- Exclusions?
- Easily Accessible by socially excluded groups
done at clients convenience no therapist
present - so - Single mothers
- Low income
- Young men
108Advantages
- Immediate psychotherapeutic intervention
- Simple (requires no reading skills)
- Good compliance effectiveness
- Free patient access library system
- Retains GP/patient relationship
- Can be used by other Health Professionals
- Fits in with existing systems
109- Positive Mental Training
- The Programme
- DVD How Hypnosis Helps Depression
- Dr Alastair Dobbin 13 mins.
-
- CD1 The Foundations of Positive Mental Health
- CD2 Building Mental Skills for Success
- CD3 Building Personal Development for success
- Each CD has 4 tracks, each track 18 mins. long
-
110CD 1
- Muscular Relaxation 1 2
- Jacobson relaxation with experiential self focus
- Notice the experience of relaxation and
tension - Encourages the observation of the body and
breathing/Mindfulness - Sets up a trigger
- Mental Relaxation 1 2
- Visualisation technique of a safe place
- Inner Mental Room
- Bolted onto physical relaxation
111The Inner Mental Room
- Having created the mental room a self
generated conflict free area - There is now a safe place
- to base a number of Psychotherapeutic tools
that the patient may explore and self-utilise. - These come in CD2 CD3
112Positive Mental TrainingCDs 2 3
- Each begins with Relaxation introduction and use
of trigger and mental room to recall experiential
mindset and remove negative affect (3 minutes) - Music
- Fixing Positive affect to enable problem solving1
- Further psychotherapeutic tools -
- reframing, accessing positive memories/states,
visualisation, desensitisation.
113Positive Mental TrainingCD 2Building mental
skills for success
- 1. Self confidence.
- 2. Problem solving.
- 3. Ideomotor.
- 4. Trigger the future.
114Positive Mental Training CD 3Building personal
development for success
- 1. Distance meaning
- 2. Love yourself
- 3. Creative thinking
- 4. Vision for the future
115Patient Video
116Intervention Design
- Starting 2/2006
- Funding
- Recruitment of Health Care Staff
- Access materials
- Educational aspects
- On-going support
117 A Benchmarked Feasibility Study of a
Self-hypnosis Treatment for Depression
118 METHODS Design Partially randomised patient
preference trial measuring the preference for and
response to either nurse led anti-depressants or
self-hypnosis. (Patients are offered their
choice after reading the information leaflet
those who do not have a preference are
randomised). Inclusion Criteria all patients
assessed as depressed by their GPs issued with a
new prescription for anti-depressants. Outcome
measures BDI-II, BSI and SF-36 measured before
and after treatment. DSM performed at entry
Location One Local Health Care Co-operative in
North East Edinburgh (85,000 patients, 80 GPs)
119- Hypnosis Methods
- Self-hypnosis intervention devised
specifically - The programme consists of 12 CD tracks
- all with hypnotic induction and then
suggestions for - relaxation, creative visualisation, self
confidence, self esteem, desensitisation,
dissociation and association techniques, creative
problem solving, distance from events and future
visualisation.
120Results
- 78/85 of referrals agreed to participate
- 58 fitted referral criteria
- High level of morbidity 90 reach criteria for
DSM IV
121RESULTS
- 54 in preference group, 4 in randomised group
- Preference group - 50 patients elected to receive
self-hypnosis and 4 elected to receive
anti-depressant drug treatment. - Self-hypnosis preference group, 47 (94)
completed the self-hypnosis 12 week course - All the preference patients who opted for
antidepressant drugs also completed their
treatment, also confirmed by their GPs. - Within the randomised group, 2 patients were
randomised to anti-depressants and 2 to self
hypnosis.
122 BDI-II Paired sample statistics
a. The correlation and t cannot be computed
because the sum of caseweights is less than or
equal to 1.
123 BSI 18 Paired sample statistics
a. The correlation and t cannot be computed
because the sum of caseweights is less than or
equal to 1.
124Results
- Between group comparisons of outcome (based on
the BSI and the BDI-II at 12 weeks) of those in
the 2 groups in the preference arm suggest a
significant positive difference of self-hypnosis
over antidepressants. (Sig .012 and .004
respectively)
125Comparison of Dobbin et al preference arms and
benchmarked studies randomised data with
Confidence Intervals
126Conclusions
- 1 - significantly more patients prefer
self-hypnosis than medication for the treatment
of depression - 2 - there was a significantly greater change in
the reduction of depression indices for those
choosing self-hypnosis compared with those
choosing medication - 3 - High levels of completion of the 12 week
course would indicate that the treatment was
acceptable to patients. - 4 - Benchmarking comparisons used to validate
this study suggests this intervention has
comparable effects to similar psychological
interventions. -
127How to use it
- First Interview, establish diagnosis. Introduce
the concept of mental training-problem solving
and relaxation. Discuss pt being own therapist,
unconscious mind knows where problems from and
can sort. - If patient seems keen give DVD and first CD
take a note of name. ?Electronic tagging of
record.(Read Code .8G8.)? - Get patient back based on severity (1 week if
very depressed 3 weeks if moderate) take back DVD - Second interview, discuss progress, mental room,
and prepare for self confidence (mention
emotional literacy) and desensitisation.
128Exclusions
- Alcohol problems, drug problems.
- Psychosis
- Bi-polar disorder
129Final steps
- Final follow up.
- Emphasise permanent nature of change.
- Emphasise that patient may wish to use tracks
again in future 1st CD if very distressed, others
depending on preference.
130The Edinburgh Roll Out
- Funding from Medicines Management Team
Prescribing Development Initiative approved
October 2005 - For North East Edinburgh 80 GPs 65,000 patients
- Familiarisation started 2/2/2006
- 2 x 2 ½ hour education sessions separated by 5
weeks, run three times over 4 months. Locum
payments 1 per 5000 pts - 22 doctors attended 6 CPNs 4 Health visitors 6
Psychologists plus sundry others
131Edinburgh Roll Out
- Sessions included Research summary
- Theories of depression - new research in
depression model of depression - Neuroscience research basis
- 2 x live patients who had used the intervention
discussing it - Questions and Answer session
- Discussion group (2nd session)
132Edinburgh Roll Out
- Evaluation ongoing e-mail contact with all
practices supplies as necessary - Follow up discussions face to face
- Evaluation of prescribing data per practice Vs
use of intervention - Evaluation of psychiatric referral patterns from
practices Vs use of intervention - Qualitative assessment of impact on GPs
133Edinburgh Roll Out
- December 2006 roll out to South West Edinburgh
funded by Edinburgh Community Health Partnership
and the Pfizer foundation - December 2006 first familiarisation sessions for
South West Edinburgh 53 doctors 80,000 pts - February 2007 roll out to South East and South
Central Edinburgh - April 2007 roll out to North West Edinburgh
134Edinburgh Roll Out
- Current estimates based on returns from
participating practices are that over 5000 people
have been given Positive Mental Training CDs in
Edinburgh. - Anti-depressant figures show that the use of
anti-depressants in North East Edinburgh has
begun to drop, particularly in the early adopting
practices (slide 4) - By summer 2007 the initiative will be providing
mental health services to a population of 750,000
people. - Formal studies will begin next April on the North
West Edinburgh population with a possible further
randomised trial.
135(No Transcript)
136Resource
- Dr Alastair Dobbin
- Brunton Place Surgery, 9 Brunton Place EH7 5EG
- alastair.dobbin_at_lothian.scot.nhs.uk
- Mobile 07920115647
- This presentation on www.hypnodoc.co.uk
- Ms Sheila Ross
- sheila_at_positiverewards.co.uk
- www.positiverewards.co.uk
- 07799768879
137The Scientific Method
- A Good Theory makes the best fit with the
observations, and if another theory comes along
with a better fit, then the model needs to change
to reflect this theory. - Steven Hawking Today Programme 30/11/2006