Forecasting Techniques

1
Forecasting Techniques

• Extrapolating Trends
• Brainstorming
• Expert Opinion
• Statistical Modeling
• Scenario Analysis

2
Scenario Analysis

• Examine possible shifts in the societal
  environment
• Identify uncertainties in five industry forces
  (plus stakeholders)
• Estimate the range of future trends
• Combine assumptions about trends into consistent
  scenarios
• Analyze the industry situation that would prevail
  under each scenario
• Determine sources of competitive advantage under
  each scenario
• Predict competitors behavior under each scenario
• Select most probable or most impactful scenarios
  and use those in strategy formulation