America

1

• America
• in a
• Multipolar World
• 2030
• Terry Terriff
• Department of Political Science
• University of Calgary
• tterriff_at_ucalgary.ca

2
Main Trends

• Continued growth of Asian economies
• ie. China, India and Japan
• Continued growth of other second tier
• economies ie. Russia and Brazil
• Continued growth of US and Europe
• but at a much slower rate.

3
Main Trends 2

• Continued population growth in developing and
• underdeveloped world
• Global urbanization and youth bulge
• Increase in numbers of non-state actors
• Sub-state actors tribes, clans, criminal
• organizations, social organizations
• Trans-state actors
  non-governmental
• organizations and groups
• Continued environmental decline
• Pressure on water, food, energy
  resources

4
World 2030

• Global order more multipolar in character
• US remains single most powerful state but
  will
• be less dominant
• First tier China, India, Japan,
  Europe
• Second tier that remain comparatively
  successful
• Brazil and Russia
• Global order more bifurcated
• Non-state actors exert even more influence
• Zones of Instability

5
Zones of Instability
6
Financial Crisis 2008

• Economic earthquake
• Shocks still reverberating around the globe
• Long term impact uncertain
• US hit hardest?
• Europe, China, India, Russia also
  affected
• How severe? What long term
  consequences?
• Emerging and underdeveloped economies
• Severely undermined with long term
• consequences?

7
Financial Crisis 2008 2

• Unprecedented velocity of impact
• Essentially global in 3 plus months
• Demonstrates deep interconnected character of
• global economy
• Economies rise and fall within US-led
  international
• liberal trade order
• Very likely will have political strategic
• implications

8
Unanswered Questions

• Can others rise economically if the US does
• not rise or not rise as fast?
• How quick will America recover?
• Historically economically resilient
• Core of current US economy is the American
• middle class consumer
• Is the US middle class consumer a thing of the
  past?
• If so, who replaces them? Who replaces
  the
• American economy?

9
Unanswered Questions 2

• Impact on other major economies?
• Europe, Japan China, India, Russia, Brazil
• What are impacts beyond the large medium
• economies?
• Emerging and underdeveloped economies
• Recent gains lost and even
  reversed?
• More weak states or failed states? More
  Turmoil?
• Increase of authoritarian governments?
• Regime survival or regime resource
  capture

10
Implications (?)

• Economies that weather best, emerge faster,
• serve as possible exemplar for
  emerging
• economies?
• Western model of economic liberalism,
• democracy, and secularism, for example,
• may lose its lusterat least in the
  medium
• term?
• Alternatives? Authoritarian
  capitalism (ie China
• or Russian model)?

11
Implications (?) 2

• Repeated system perturbations?
• Strategic adjustments by major powers?
• Increased political turmoil and conflict?
• Primarily in developing and underdeveloped
• states

12
Example 1 China

• Starting to suffer company failures, rising
• unemployment
• Possible deflation (?)
• Rising number of popular demonstrations
• So far small and diffuse but.
• CCP increasingly nervous
• (professional paranoids)
• End of China Economic Model?

13
Example 1 China (2)

• Unable to sustain sufficient economic growth
• to placate population and central control
• erodes (and collapses?) due to internal
  pressures
• (democracy or state failure?)
• Survives downturn, returns to slower growth and
• remains stable slow liberalization continues
• with China a more liberal but still
  authoritarian
• capitalist system
• Survives downturn and liberalizes towards
• democracy

14
Example 2 - Russia

• Will it continue to rely mostly on petroleum
• exports rising in price?
• (and other strategic natural resources)
• Will it restructure its economy?
• In both cases, what is internal impact and
• consequence for legitimacy of the
  regime?
• More authoritarian or more
  liberal?
• Will it become more marginalized
• internationally?
• And hence more nationalistic (and so
  belligerent?)

15
Example 3 - America

• Domestic Impact of President Obama
• Progressive domestic agenda
• Financial crisis equals domestic policy
• opportunity
• Can he restructure American economy?

16
Example 3 America (2)

• Foreign Policy Impact of President Obama
• US still most influential single state
• Economically, militarily, and politically
• Obama stresses diplomacy over military force
• (but has indicated would use
  military force)
• Three guiding principles
• - US cant do everything by itself
• - US must get its allies to assume the burden
• militarily
• - International security problems
  require the US to
• use non-military assets.

17
Geo-Economics

• US still single largest economy
• Europe (EU) likely as strong economically
• as the US?
• Continued shift in Economic Power from West
• (Europe and North America) to East Asia-
• South Asia region
• Accelerated shift due to current
  financial
• crisis?

18
Geo-Economics 2

• China, India more integrated into global
• economic system
• Growing economies expect (and receive?)
• greater influence in international financial
• institutions
• ie World Bank, IMF, World
  Trade Org
• Increased ability to shape global trading order?
  

19
Geo-Economics 3

• Denser trade ties between main trade blocs
• Increased trade ties between trade blocs and
• second tier economies
• Increased trade ties between trade bloc and
• emerging and developing states

20
Europes Trade Flows 2000
21
US Trade Flow 2000
22
Japans Trade Flow 2000
23
Chinas Trade Flow 2000
24
American Foreign Policy 2030

• Main Influences
• Changing distribution of power
• Political Strategic Culture
• Domestic Politics

25
Changing Balance of Power

• US not as dominant, but still strongest power
• First Tier - Europe, China, India
• Strong economic capacity, limited to
  moderate
• power projection capability
• Second Tier Russia, Brazil
• Moderate economic capacity, very limited to
• no power projection capability

26
American Political Culture

• American creed
• Classical liberalism
• Individual freedom, equality of
  rights,
• majority rule, progress, enterprise,
  the
• rule of law, and strict limits on the
  state.

27
American Strategic Culture

• Assumes progress in international affairs
• Assumes democratic governments are inherently
• less warlike than authoritarian ones
• democracy encourages trade and
• trade encourages peace
• Assumes it is morally and politically distinct
• from, and superior to, the Old World
• Assumes it has a special mission or destiny in
• world affairs (Obamas acceptance
  speech)

28
American Liberal Internationalism

• Promotion of a more liberal international order,
• broadly speaking, has always been a central
• goal of American grand strategy.
• Two main approaches
• Messianic actively promote democracy
• and freedom abroad, at the
  extreme
• by force if necessary
• Exemplar (City on the Hill) promote
• democracy and freedom by example

29
American Isolationism

• Limited Liability
• a culturally shaped preference for
  avoiding costs and
• commitments in grand strategy, to an
  extent that is
• actually inconsistent with stated and
  established
• international goals.
• - preference for non-entanglement
• - the pursuit of foreign policy aims by
• disproportionately limited means

30
Domestic Politics

• President needs to build domestic coalitions
• Congress
• Domestic politics
• Impact of public opinion, economic well
  being
• More economically strong America is,
  more
• expansive is its foreign policy
  capacity and actions
• Injects anomalies and inconsistencies into
• foreign policy (effectiveness?)

31
Historical US Strategic Patterns

• US foreign policy always interested in spreading
• democracy
• - what differs is emphasis and means
  used.
• Mix of messianic and exemplar
  approaches
• US foreign policy fluctuates between variable
  mix
• of balance of power and liberal
• internationalism
• US foreign policy oscillates in terms of degree
  of
• international engagement

32
Implications for 2030

• See itself still as the international leader
• Will seek to sustain its economic and power
• advantage (as long as it has means to
  do so)
• Will continue to try to shape/create liberal
• international order (democracy
  promotion)
• Will seek détente-like relations with major
• non-democratic states but on its terms
• Want allies to share more of the burden
• Engagement will be inconsistent

33
Major Power Relations

• Largely cooperation with Europe and India
• Forces for good shared values
• Mixture of cooperation and competition
• between US and China
• Economic ties but incompatible values
• Largely competition (and conflict?) with Russia
• Mainly European regional problem?
  (limited
• liability)
• Possible international containment?

34
Limited Spheres of Influence?

• US - most if not all L America (those that
• democratic, more or less)
• Competition with Brazil? (if yes, minor)
• Europe - Europe and near environs
• (ie Saharan
  Africa?)
• India - South Asia (regional power)
• Russia - the Near abroad
• China - East Asia (potential to detach
  partially or
• wholly democratic capitalist states
  S. Korea,
• Japan, Singapore, Malaysia,
  Indonesia?).

35
Major Power Conflict?

• Major power war unthinkable
• Major powers are nuclear weapons states
• But major power war not impossible!
• Amorphous nature of limited spheres of
  interest
• East Asia, Middle East
• Major power economic warfare?
• Economic disruption via unconventional means

36
Global Competition for Influence

• US, Europe, China
• Most significant global economic ties
• Japan, India next tier of global ties
• Competition for markets
• Between and amongst trade blocs
• Competition in zones of instability

37
Competition in Zones of Instability
38
US and China Trade Flows
39
Africa and South America Trade Flows
40
Zones of Instability
41
Competition in Zones of Instability

• Competition for influence to ensure access to
• natural resources.
• Competition mainly through soft power
• Foreign and military aid, trade, etc
• Possible conflicts of influence or specific
  interests
• Competition conducted through
  unconventional
• means?
• Competition conducted through
  covert or overt
• support for state and
  non-state proxies?
• Competition through military
  engagement?

42
US - Managing Disorder

• American cultural impulse to lead
• Who else will step up? Europe? China?
  UN?
• Global interests, global responsibilities?
• Act to secure interests and to promote
• liberal international order (democracy)
• What balance between two?

43
Main Areas of Disorder

• Middle East
• Energy security
• Counterterrorism, nation building
• Central Eurasia
• Pakistan counterterrorism,
  nation-building (?)
• Energy security
• Africa
• Selected engagement
• Security counterterrorism, energy,
  minerals
• Humanitarianism, nation building

44
How US Will Manage Disorder?

• America will act through international
• institutions when it can
• ie UN, NATO, EU, AU, ASEAN,
  others
• American Limited Liability
• Want others to carry much or most
  of the
• burden
• Particularly when no or limited
  US interests
• involved

45
How US Will Manage Disorder? 2

• Will act alone or with coalitions of willing
• if it must
• When interests involved
• For humanitarian reasons/nation building
• When institutions unwilling
  or unable to act
• Limited liability will result in efforts
  to convince
• others to take on burden after the
  fact
• ie., Europe, India, or
  international institutions

46
Implications for 2030 reprised

• Will seek to be the international leader
• Will seek to sustain its economic and power
• advantage (as long as it has means to
  do so)
• Will continue to try to shape/create liberal
• international order (democracy
  promotion)
• Will seek détente-like relations with major
• non-democratic states but on its terms
• Will press for more burden sharing by allies
• Engagement will be inconsistent

47

• Questions?